NFL Betting Breakdown: Bruce Marshall

Denver (8-4) at Tennessee (6-6)

Time/TV: 10 a.m., KLAS (8)

Line/Total: Titans -1½, 43½

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Denver quarterback Trevor Siemian, whose foot injury put rookie Paxton Lynch into the lineup last week at Jacksonville, is listed as questionable but is expected to start. Broncos coach Gary Kubiak is opening more of his playbook these days for Siemian, and the low-risk attack they used when gaining only 206 yards behind Lynch a week ago will not beat many teams other than the Jaguars. With Siemian, however, the Broncos have had enough offense to beat competent opposition. Denver has more recent crucial-game experience than Tennessee. Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota must avoid mistakes in order to give the Titans a chance to stay atop the AFC South.

By the numbers: Mariota has 25 touchdown passes, eight interceptions and the NFL’s No. 5 passer rating (101.9). … Denver ranks No. 5 in total defense by allowing 315.5 yards per game. … The Broncos are 10-4 against the spread in their past 14 games.

Marshall’s pick: Broncos, 22-17

San Diego (5-7) at Carolina (4-8)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Panthers -1, 48½

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: It’s one of the curiosities of the NFL, greatly reflecting the league’s competitiveness and parity. Last year, Carolina went 15-1 in the regular season and then handled Arizona and Seattle in the playoffs to stand 17-1 going into the Super Bowl. Since then, the Panthers are 4-9 straight up and 3-9-1 ATS, including 2-8-1 as favorites. Those recent negative numbers don’t even mean Carolina is a bad team. They mean that injuries, free-agent losses, a little understandable satiety and a few bad breaks can catch up to anyone. With these two teams virtually out of the playoff running, but owning very productive quarterbacks, anticipate some offensive fireworks. This is the first chance for former North Carolina State great Philip Rivers to play in Charlotte.

By the numbers: The Chargers are in their favorable road ‘dog role - 3-2 ATS this season and 23-10 in their past 33 since 2012. … San Diego’s Melvin Gordon is fourth in the league in rushing yards with 992. He also has 10 touchdowns. … In their past 13 games, the Chargers are 9-3-1 over the total.

Marshall’s pick: Chargers, 29-26

Houston (6-6) at Indianapolis (6-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Colts -6½, 46½

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Andrew Luck returned Monday, so the most important piece of the Colts’ puzzle is back in place for this crucial AFC South game. Even with Houston’s late rally to collar Indianapolis in overtime on Oct. 16, the Texans have covered only one of the past eight in this series. Moreover, the Texans are on the road, where they have won and covered against only the lowly Jaguars in six tries this season. It’s doubtful Luck goes 0-2 versus still-struggling Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler.

By the numbers: In a 41-10 victory over the Jets, Luck hit on 22 of 28 passes for 278 yards and four touchdowns. … Osweiler has 14 touchdown passes with 13 interceptions. … The Colts are 5-2-1 ATS in their past seven games.

Marshall’s pick: Colts, 30-20

Cincinnati (4-7-1) at Cleveland (0-12)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Bengals -5½, 41

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: I’m not sure last week’s home romp past fading Philadelphia was a late-season buy sign for Cincinnati, which is still minus several key offensive weapons, including wideout A.J. Green. The Browns activated quarterback Robert Griffin III to start this game, and last week’s bye provides something of a refresher. Cleveland is quickly running out of games to avoid matching the 2008 Lions’ all-time 0-16 record of infamy. I’m not ready to pick the spot where the Browns notch their first win.

By the numbers: Cleveland ranks 31st in scoring offense at 16.4 points per game. … The Browns have failed to cover six straight. … The Bengals won and covered the past four in this series.

Marshall’s pick: Bengals, 24-16

Pittsburgh (7-5) at Buffalo (6-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Steelers -3, 46

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: There are major playoff implications here in what might be the most meaningful Steelers-Bills game since the 1992 playoffs, when Marv Levy-coached Buffalo won 24-3 at old Three Rivers Stadium. The Bills’ road-grading attack appears built for the December conditions at Orchard Park, although the Tyrod Taylor-led offense could not come up with the needed big plays to slow the Raiders’ momentum last week in Oakland. Meanwhile, with Le’Veon Bell (128 yards per game rushing in his past three) shifting gears, and with Ben Roethlisberger appearing beyond his midseason injuries, the Steelers appear to be hitting stride just in time for another playoff run.

By the numbers: Pittsburgh has three straight wins and covers. … The Bills rank No. 1 in the league with 161.9 rushing yards per game. … LeSean McCoy is sixth in rushing yards with 949. … Roethlisberger has 25 touchdown passes, and he has been sacked 16 times. … Taylor has passed for 11 touchdowns while getting sacked 34 times.

Marshall’s pick: Steelers, 29-24

Arizona (5-6-1) at Miami (7-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Cardinals -1½, 43½

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Arizona maintained a faint playoff pulse with last week’s win over the Redskins. But the Cardinals are in a pickle because of their season-long inconsistency and inability to function on the road, where they have won and covered only versus the lowly 49ers. Carson Palmer (18 touchdowns, 11 interceptions) had a brief revival last week, but that does not alter the season-long perception he is a fading star. Miami has to hope last week’s meltdown at Baltimore was a one-off. But the postseason-hopeful Dolphins won six straight before last week, and they won their past four at home.

By the numbers: The Cardinals are on a 7-0 over-the-total streak on the road. … Arizona’s David Johnson is the league’s No. 3 rusher with 1,005 yards.

Marshall’s pick: Dolphins, 30-23

Chicago (3-9) at Detroit (8-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Lions -7½, 43½

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: The last time Detroit led its division this late into December, Wayne Fontes was the coach. The Lions did not even have to mount a fourth-quarter comeback to win last week at New Orleans. Credit Chicago for its recent scrappy efforts, and third-stringer Matt Barkley for providing serviceable work at quarterback. But the revived Detroit defense picked off Drew Brees three times last week. And Matthew Stafford’s form has not been this good since his days at Georgia. I prefer the payback angle, as Stafford’s last poor game was Oct. 2, when the Lions lost to the Brian Hoyer-led Bears. Note that this is the first road start for Barkley, who struggled off the bench at Green Bay on Oct. 20.

By the numbers: Stafford has 14 touchdown passes and one interception in his past eight games. … The Lions are 6-1-1 ATS in their past eight. … The Bears are 1-5 ATS away.

Marshall’s pick: Lions, 26-13

Minnesota (6-6) at Jacksonville (2-10)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Vikings -3½, 39½

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Jaguars coach Gus Bradley has likely run out of rope after another double-digit loss season. After a bumpy 1-6 stretch has pushed the Vikings to the edge of playoff elimination, they might finally have found a foe they can beat. The rugged Minnesota defense should be too tough for the Jaguars to handle.

By the numbers: The Vikings rank No. 3 in total defense (303.4 yards per game). … Blake Bortles has thrown three pick-sixes in Jacksonville’s past four games and now has 11 in his career. … The Jaguars are 2-7 ATS in their past nine as hosts.\

Marshall’s pick: Vikings, 26-10

Washington (6-5-1) at Philadelphia (5-7)

Time/TV: 10 a.m., KVVU (5)

Line/Total: Redskins -2½, 47

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: One of the major themes of the first meeting, eight weeks ago, was the Washington attack over the right side of the Philadelphia offensive line, which was replacing right tackle Lane Johnson, who was having a fine season. The varied but frequent stunts helped confuse and confound the Eagles, as Carson Wentz was sacked five times. The Redskins are desperately trying to stay in the playoff mix. Even with Philadelphia’s strong home field (4-1 straight up this season), I prefer the offensive versatility and competence of Kirk Cousins and the Redskins.

By the numbers: Wentz, who threw three interceptions last week, has totaled 12 touchdowns and 11 picks in his rookie year, with his promising start long forgotten. … Cousins has 21 touchdown passes. … The Redskins are 15-2 over the total in their past 17 games.

Marshall’s pick: Redskins, 23-17

N.Y. Jets (3-9) at San Francisco (1-11)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/Total: 49ers -2½, 44

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: These are two teams pondering the future, especially at quarterback. Also, perhaps, at head coach. It’s the first meeting for the two in San Francisco in eight years, when Brett Favre was hurling for the Jets. Meanwhile, some of the cynics popping up at Levi’s Stadium regard a loss in this game as crucial to the 49ers’ hopes of nabbing the No. 2 pick in the draft. San Francisco has lost 11 straight under coach Chip Kelly, who’s not leaving for Oregon. Maybe the New York front seven can control matters.

By the numbers: The 49ers’ Colin Kaepernick was pulled in the fourth quarter last week in wintry Chicago, where he completed one pass for 4 yards and was sacked five times. … San Francisco is 2-9 ATS since its season-opening win over the Rams.

Marshall’s pick: Jets, 23-20

New Orleans (5-7) at Tampa Bay (7-5)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/Total: Buccaneers -2½, 51

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: This is the teams’ first meeting of the season, after the visitor captured both matchups last year. Jameis Winston (22 touchdowns, 12 interceptions) is definitely more decisive and assertive in his second season. But few quarterbacks are more aggressive these days than Drew Brees. Until last week’s three interceptions against Detroit, Brees was demonstrating excellent rapport with a receiving corps that appeared to have been rebuilt to great effect following the Saints’ salad days with Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston. Tampa Bay has won four straight to become a player in the NFC playoff chase.

By the numbers: The Saints are 5-0 ATS on the road, and there is no quit in the fiery Brees nor coach Sean Payton, who have combined for a 6-0 underdog mark. … Brees leads the league with 30 touchdown passes, despite getting none last week. … Tampa Bay is 2-4 at home, winning and covering the past two.

Marshall’s pick: Saints, 29-26

Seattle (8-3-1) at Green Bay (6-6)

Time/TV: 1:25 p.m., KVVU (5)

Line/Total: Seahawks -3, 45

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Green Bay won last year’s meeting 27-17 at Lambeau Field. The Packers currently can’t run well and are banged up a bit on defense. The Seahawks welcomed back five players from their injury list prior to last week’s rout of Carolina, then lost key safety Earl Thomas. That could be just the opening needed for Aaron Rodgers now that he’s resembling top form.

By the numbers: Rodgers is second in the league with 29 touchdown passes. … Seattle allows 16.2 points per game to rank No. 1 in scoring defense. … Seahawks linebacker Bobby Wagner is the league leader in tackles with 127. … Seattle coach Pete Carroll is 19-4 straight up in December since 2011.

Marshall’s pick: Packers, 26-24

Atlanta (7-5) at Los Angeles (4-8)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/Total: Falcons -6½, 45

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: As Rams rookie Jared Goff works his way along the NFL learning curve, he has opposed Drew Brees, Tom Brady and now Matt Ryan in his last three games. He’s still searching for that elusive first win. The Falcons have the balanced and effective firepower the Rams covet, while rookie Atlanta defenders such as safety Keanu Neal, middle linebacker Deion Jones and outside linebacker DeVondre Campbell have quickly emerged as solid starters. The Falcons have won at Oakland and Denver this season.

By the numbers: Since beating Seattle 9-3 in its home opener, Los Angeles has lost three straight at the Coliseum by 11, 3 and 4 points. … The Rams converted only 1 of 12 on third down last week at New England. … The Falcons are 10-2 over the total.

Marshall’s pick: Falcons, 27-10

Dallas (11-1) at N.Y. Giants (8-4)

Time/TV: 5:30 p.m., KSNV (3)

Line/Total: Cowboys -3½, 47½

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: This is the first payback game for rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, who lost their NFL opener 20-19 to the Giants in Dallas in Week 1. The pair have improved by leaps and bounds since that defeat, winning 11 straight and covering nine. It’s the last chance for the Giants to hang in the NFC East race, so they are not expected to go easily. But the Cowboys are well rested and they own a superior offensive line and rushing edge over the home-dog Giants.

By the numbers: The Cowboys were outrushed 113-101 in the first meeting, as Elliott (league-leading 1,285 yards rushing) had only 51 yards on 20 carries. … The Giants are 3-0-1 ATS in the past four in the series. … Prescott has 19 touchdown passes with two picks.

Marshall’s pick: Cowboys, 27-20

Baltimore (7-5) at New England (10-2)

Time/TV: 5:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/Total: Patriots -7, 45

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: More than just about any team, Baltimore has been a New England nemesis, handing Bill Belichick two of the four playoff losses he has suffered in Foxborough. Tight end Rob Gronkowski is out, and wideout Danny Amendola is likely out, too. The Patriots have feasted upon the likes of the lowly 49ers, Jets and Rams the past three weeks after losing at home to Seattle. Slow but savvy veteran safety Eric Weddle has helped settle the Ravens secondary, which has been able to keep its top corners mostly healthy this season. The arm injury that has led to fewer minutes for linebacker Terrell Suggs has helped keep the intimidating pass rusher fresher in the late going.

By the numbers: The Ravens’ Joe Flacco had one of his best games (36 of 47, 381 yards, four touchdowns) last week against the quick rush of the Dolphins. … Justin Tucker (28 of 28 field goals) is an excellent long-range weapon for Baltimore. … New England is 12-8 straight up and 9-9-2 ATS at home on “Monday Night Football.”

Marshall’s pick: Ravens, 26-23