NFL betting breakdown: Pats-and-over winning combo

All of the credit for the New England Patriots’ offensive prowess does not go to Tom Brady, although it starts with the quarterback.

Brady is complemented by some big-time weapons, none bigger than 6-foot-6-inch, 265-pound tight end Rob Gronkowski. During the Patriots’ six-game win streak dating to Oct. 5, Gronkowski has totaled 40 receptions for 387 yards and six touchdowns.

New England has covered five of its past six games, with all six going over the total, as Brady and Gronkowski have connected to destroy defenses and betting lines. The Patriots are 7-point home favorites over the Detroit Lions today, and the total is 48.

Micah Roberts, a handicapper for “The Linemakers” on SportingNews.com and a former sports book director, is focused on a favorite-and-over trend that has paid off with New England, Denver and Green Bay.

“Parlays are never easy to hit when betting the NFL, but for bettors following some elite teams over the past two months, they are making the two-team side-to-total parlay look easier than ever,” Roberts said.

A Packers-and-over correlated parlay has hit in six of their past seven games, a Broncos-and-over parlay has hit in five of their past seven, and the Patriots-and-over ticket has cashed in five of six. One of the losses came when Denver was defeated 43-21 at New England on Nov. 2.

“That’s 13-5 odds, with 16 wins and only three losses, for around a 38-unit profit,” Roberts said. “The gravy train could face some resistance this week as all three of those popular teams play good defenses that have been more apt to keep games under the total this season. Along with those defenses, conditions at three cold-weather sites have to be seriously considered.”

The Lions-Patriots game is a clash of styles. New England is 8-2 over the total. Detroit, with its No. 1-ranked defense allowing 290 yards and 15.6 points per game, is 8-2 under the total.

“So the big question here is which team will impose its will over the other?” Roberts said. “The Patriots offense is an upgrade from what Detroit has seen lately, and the Lions offense might have to jazz things a bit to keep up. The Patriots have scored 37 points or more in five of their past six games, outclassing a few decent teams like Denver, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Buffalo.

“With the roll the Patriots are on, and Detroit at times appearing more lucky than good while winning four of its past five games, New England might actually be cheap at minus-7. Good weather is also part of the equation with the sun out, not much wind, and temperatures in the low 40s. Look for the favorite to cover and for the score to go over.”

Roberts (@MicahRoberts7 on Twitter) picks the Patriots to win 37-24, and he breaks down the rest of today’s Week 12 rotation:

■ Cleveland at Atlanta (-3): The Falcons might have righted the ship with two straight road wins. It’s hard to believe, but Atlanta (4-6) is tied for first in the NFC South. Both teams are riding six-game “under” streaks, but I’m not so sure it continues. Atlanta’s offense is rolling up 447 yards per game at home. Falcons, 30-20.

■ Tennessee at Philadelphia (-11): If the Eagles cover, the game usually goes over the total. Of the seven games they have covered, five went over. The Philadelphia spread is inflated by two points, but I still don’t want the ’dog, although I do think Zach Mettenberger will eventually be a good NFL quarterback. Eagles, 37-23.

■ Green Bay (-8½) at Minnesota: The spread and total (49½) are inflated, but it’s hard to make a case for getting value with Minnesota or under. Weather should not be an issue, and that’s probably the only thing that can slow this Packers offense. Look for Green Bay to get its eighth straight over, and cover for the seventh time in eight games. Packers, 35-24.

■ Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-14): The Colts have won and covered the past four meetings. One thing we can give Andrew Luck credit for is drilling inferior teams. Indianapolis is 18-6 ATS in its past 24 home games and has gone over the total in eight of 10 games this season. The Colts-and-over parlay has occurred five times. Colts, 38-20.

■ Cincinnati at Houston (-2): The Texans have covered the past six meetings, with the past two in the playoffs. The Bengals’ big win at New Orleans last week should have given this dazed team a spark. I’m not willing to wager on the game, but do give a slight nod to Cincinnati. Bengals, 20-17.

■ Tampa Bay at Chicago (-5½): This should be fun with coach Lovie Smith and quarterback Josh McCown returning with the Buccaneers to Soldier Field, where the Bears have covered only five of their past 22 games. It should be a winnable game for the Bears, but Jay Cutler can’t be counted on, and Tampa Bay’s only two wins came on the road. Buccaneers, 26-23.

■ Arizona at Seattle (-7): It’s a huge game for the Seahawks, who have played below expectations in their past six, going 1-5 ATS. Arizona won in Seattle last season and comes in on a six-game cover streak. Defense will be at the forefront, which makes this a great under-the-total play. Although I believe Arizona will fade down the stretch, Seattle will get a scare here. Seahawks, 17-13.

■ St. Louis at San Diego (-5): It’s hard to make a case for the Chargers, who have failed to cover their past five games. Meanwhile, the Rams have knocked off Seattle, San Francisco and Denver in their past five games. This will be the worst team St. Louis has played since beating Tampa Bay in Week 2. Rams, 23-20.

■ Miami at Denver (-7): The Broncos return from a three-game trip and are looking forward to this home game. Sharps are on the Miami side at plus-7, but this type of situation is where Peyton Manning is his absolute best. Look for Denver to bounce back strong with a cover and “over,” just as in its past three opportunities at home. Broncos, 38-24.

■ Washington at San Francisco (-9): This line is inflated by 2½ points, but I don’t want the points with the Redskins, who covered only once in their past seven games. The 49ers have covered five of their past seven, but they have been a bit sluggish at home, winning two of four. Look for the San Francisco defense to keep a bad Redskins offense from scoring. Under the total (44) is the best play. 49ers, 16-10.

■ Dallas (-3½) at New York Giants: The Giants have failed to win or cover their past five games. Dallas has won and covered the past three meetings. So, naturally I’m siding with the Giants. This is one of those games in which I’ve thrown every piece of data out the window and will go with the Giants just because it’s a great situation being at home in prime time against a rival they despise. Tom Coughlin will have his team ready, and then they will go back to being bad next week. Giants, 31-27.

COMPILED BY MATT YOUMANS LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL