NFL Betting: Offense can carry favored Seahawks behind QB Wilson

When quarterback Russell Wilson looks around today, he will see two fewer stars in the Seattle Seahawks' huddle.

Running back Marshawn Lynch is out, replaced by rookie Thomas Rawls, and tight end Jimmy Graham is done for the season. But the changes are no surprise, and Wilson has had to make adjustments on the run all season.

The Seahawks are 1½-point road favorites over the Minnesota Vikings, who at 8-3 have a half-game lead over the Green Bay Packers in the NFC North. Seattle (6-5) is hanging in the playoff race after back-to-back wins.

"This is a huge game for both teams," said Micah Roberts, an analyst for "The Linemakers" on SportingNews.com. "The Vikings need to show they belong in contender discussions, while the Seahawks need to show they don't deserve to be severely downgraded in their rating.

"Last season when the Seahawks were 3-3 and we questioned whether there was something wrong, they went 11-1 before losing in the Super Bowl. The big change happened in October. So when looking at this year's sluggish version that started 2-4, there was optimism Seattle could turn things around, and it has by winning four of the past five games.

"But the big difference between last season and this season is Seattle's defense, which was No. 1 in the league and closed the door while leading late, like an elite baseball reliever. Last season, the Seahawks won the big games, but this season they lose them while allowing increases of 57 yards per game and 4.3 points per game."

Seattle coach Pete Carroll has not found the answers for his defense, and Wilson is carrying a heavy offensive load. But Roberts is recommending a bet on the Seahawks.

"It's a play on the Seahawks manning up and finally winning a big game," Roberts said. "The Vikings are an amazing story this season, but when they played their first big game of the season, they failed miserably at home against a slumping Green Bay team."

Minnesota is 9-1-1 under the total. Roberts is parlaying under 42½ with Seattle.

Roberts (@MicahRoberts7 on Twitter) breaks down the rest of today's Week 13 rotation:

San Francisco at Chicago (-7): I know the 49ers are 0-5 on the road, losing by an average score of 35-15. I know the Bears have covered seven of their past eight, and we can see coach John Fox's imprint all over rejuvenated quarterback Jay Cutler. But the San Francisco defense that plays so well at home is eventually going to show up on the road, and this looks like a good spot. Chicago is 4-10-1 ATS in its past 15 as a home favorite. The public is all over the Bears, and I'll take the 49ers plus the points.

Cincinnati (-9) at Cleveland: The Bengals are hard to pass up because they are 9-1-1 ATS, but this still is a lot of points to lay on the road, even with Austin Davis starting at quarterback for Cleveland. The past three meetings stayed under the total, including Cincinnati's 31-10 win last month. The angle that looks best is expecting a low-scoring game, so look under 43½.

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-2½): So, this line is saying these teams are equal and the Tennessee home field is worth 2½? The Titans have lost all six games at home this season and also lost 19-13 at Jacksonville last month. I'm not buying it. The Jaguars are about two points better than Tennessee. I'll take Jacksonville and the points, plus a little bit at plus-125 on the money line.

Houston at Buffalo (-3½): Why stop betting the Texans now? Houston has won and covered four straight while using two different quarterbacks, and its defense has been outstanding. Buffalo has won only two of five at home this season. The Bills have lost their past two and four of six. I'll take the hot underdog.

Baltimore at Miami (-4): The public is siding with the Ravens after quarterback Matt Schaub looked serviceable in Monday's win at Cleveland. I could see Miami winning. But it's tough to lay more than a field goal with the Dolphins, who looked weak in their past two losses to the Cowboys and Jets. I'll pass.

Carolina (-7) at New Orleans: The Panthers' rating keeps rising each week, and they keep telling Las Vegas that the number is still too low. Carolina has covered its past four and nine of 11. The Saints come in having lost three straight (0-3 ATS) and have continued to regress offensively since a 52-49 victory over the Giants on Nov. 1. The Panthers are 7-3-1 over the total. Carolina won 41-10 at New Orleans last season. The Panthers minus-7 and over 49½ are the plays, and it's also a great correlated two-team parlay.

Arizona (-4½) at St. Louis: The Cardinals have won five straight, but they covered the number only twice in those games. The rapid rise in its rating caught up with Arizona. The Rams have lost their past four and failed to cover each time. Carson Palmer and the Cardinals will not take this game lightly after losing to the Rams 24-22 in Week 4. Lay the points with Arizona.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-1): The Falcons fooled a lot of people early in the season when they looked like contenders in the NFC. Atlanta is an amusing team, covering its first four games and then failing to cover its past seven. The Buccaneers have covered five of their past seven with a defense showing improvement. Tampa Bay appears to be the play, but this game is a pass for me.

New York Jets (-2) at New York Giants: Each team has lost four of the past six, yet the Jets' defense has them maintaining a better rating than the Giants. But the Jets are not 4½ points better, and that's what this number is saying when giving the Giants 2½ to 3 points for home field. Eli Manning was off last week. He needs to turn it on this week. I'll take points with the Giants.

Denver (-4) at San Diego: This could be a letdown spot for the Broncos after their comeback win against the Patriots. But good defenses travel well in any situation, and Denver has the No. 1 defense statistically by allowing 285.8 yards per game. Philip Rivers is piling up passing yards, but the Chargers are 1-10 ATS in their past 11 at home and 0-8 ATS in their past 11 against AFC West opponents. I'll go Broncos and under 43½.

Kansas City (-3) at Oakland: The Chiefs just keep rolling with five straight wins and covers. The Raiders have hit a lull, losing three of their past four. There is no reason to stop riding the Kansas City gravy train with a team playing some of the best football in the league. Go with the Chiefs.

Philadelphia at New England (-8½): It's getting ugly in Philadelphia. The Eagles have lost three straight and looked bad doing it, allowing 45 points in each of the past two games. If Jameis Winston and Matthew Stafford can light up the Eagles, what will Tom Brady do? But the Patriots have not lived up to the top rating in the league the past three games, mostly because Brady has to deal with not having all of his weapons. He's without Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski today. Sam Bradford is back at quarterback for the Eagles, and that makes the difference. Take the points.

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (-7): The Colts have covered four straight and six of seven, and Matt Hasselbeck has been terrific as Andrew Luck's replacement by going 4-0. Ben Roethlisberger is expected to play, but I don't see the Steelers' edge being greater than seven points. I expect both defenses to play well and set the tempo. Pittsburgh has stayed under the total in seven of its past nine games. Indianapolis stayed under in its past two. Take the Colts — 7½ is available — and look under 49.

— Compiled by Matt Youmans/Las Vegas Review-Journal