NFL Week 16 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game
NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN
Doug Fitz, Systemplays.com, @fitz_doug
Raiders (2-12) at Texans (9-5)
Time: 1:25 p.m., CBS
Line/total: Texans -14, 38
Analysis: The Raiders are obviously awful and have failed to produce 100 yards of total offense twice this season in 31-0 losses to the Eagles (75 yards) last week and to the Chiefs (95 yards) in Week 7. Now they face the No. 1 overall defense in the NFL. The Texans are only a game ahead of the Colts in the AFC playoff race, so they should be focused and win big, though laying double digits in the NFL is always risky.
Pick: Texans 28, Raiders 7
Bills (10-4) at Browns (3-11)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bills -10½, 41½
Analysis: Buffalo has a noticeable tendency to play down to its competition, as its 1-5 against the spread record against opponents with a winning percentage of .333 or less indicates. The Browns are a much better team at home, and they should be motivated to give defensive end Myles Garrett the two sacks he needs to break the NFL single-season record of 22½ shared by the Giants’ Michael Strahan and the Steelers’ T.J. Watt.
Pick: Bills 23, Browns 17
Jets (3-11) at Saints (4-10)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Saints -6½, 40½
Analysis: This is a tough game to handicap. The Jets are 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven NFC road games. The Saints are 26-56-1 ATS as home favorites against sub-.333 opponents, including 1-13 ATS when coming off an outright win as an underdog. When in doubt, take the points.
Pick: Saints 20, Jets 18
Vikings (6-8) at Giants (2-12)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Vikings -2½, 43
Analysis: The Giants are probably in tanking mode playing for the No. 1 draft pick. The Vikings are eliminated from the playoffs, but second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy has recently been in good form. Minnesota is on a 5-1-1 ATS run in the second game of back-to-back road games.
Pick: Vikings 27, Giants 18
Buccaneers (7-7) at Panthers (7-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Buccaneers -3, 46
Analysis: Both teams are fighting for the NFC South crown, and both are struggling. The Buccaneers have lost five of their past six games while going 0-6 ATS, though they are on a 5-0-1 ATS run after Thursday games and 6-2 ATS in their past eight division road games. The Panthers are on a 0-6 ATS slide against opponents coming off a Thursday game.
Pick: Buccaneers 21, Panthers 17
Chiefs (6-8) at Titans (2-12)
Time: 10 a.m., CBS
Line/total: Chiefs -3, 37½
Analysis: The Chiefs will not make the playoffs for the first time since 2014, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes is done for the season with a torn ACL. Kansas City coach Andy Reid is 26-9 ATS in his career in games when his team has a losing record. This is a buy-low spot on the Chiefs with the short number against arguably the NFL’s worst team.
Pick: Chiefs 24, Titans 17
Chargers (10-4) at Cowboys (6-7-1)
Time: 10 a.m., Fox
Line/total: Cowboys -2, 49½
Analysis: The Chargers have been underdogs three times this season and won all three games, including against the Chiefs and Eagles. Los Angeles coach Jim Harbaugh is 7-3-2 ATS as an NFL underdog. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is 7-0-1 ATS when coming off an outright underdog win. Dallas is eliminated from the playoffs, so I expect an unmotivated effort.
Pick: Chargers 27, Cowboys 14
Bengals (4-10) at Dolphins (6-8)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bengals -4, 47½
Analysis: Quarterback Quinn Ewers gets his first NFL start for Miami. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel is 14-4-1 ATS in his tenure with the team against opponents coming off consecutive losses like the Bengals, including 8-2 ATS at home.
Pick: Dolphins 28, Bengals 23
Falcons (5-9) at Cardinals (3-11)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Falcons -2½, 48½
Analysis: Both teams have underperformed. Atlanta is 0-5 ATS against the NFC West, and the Cardinals are on a 7-2 ATS run against the NFC South. A weak nod to the Cardinals.
Pick: Cardinals 27, Falcons 24
Jaguars (10-4) at Broncos (12-2)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Broncos -3½, 47
Analysis: The Broncos are on an 11-game win streak, and the Jaguars are on a five-game win streak. Nine of Denver’s 11 wins have been by one score, and the Jaguars are in a 15-5 ATS spot of teams on an exact five-game win streak against opponents coming off a win.
Pick: Broncos 28, Jaguars 26
Steelers (8-6) at Lions (8-6)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Lions -7, 52
Analysis: Lions coach Dan Campbell is 11-0-1 ATS when coming off a loss facing an opponent coming off a win. Detroit is on a 4-0 ATS run against opponents coming off a home win on “Monday Night Football.” The Lions have won 15 straight while going 14-1 ATS when coming off their last 15 losses. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has been good in the underdog role, but this game is pretty much a must-win for Detroit.
Pick: Lions 38, Steelers 20
Patriots (11-3) at Ravens (7-7)
Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC
Line/total: Ravens -3, 49
Analysis: It seems as if everyone is waiting for the Ravens to be competitive against good opposition. But they are just not very good right now, and quarterback Lamar Jackson is underperforming. The Ravens are on a 1-5-1 ATS skid as a favorite after playing the Bengals.
Pick: Patriots 27, Ravens 21
49ers (10-4) at Colts (8-6)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ABC, ESPN
Line/total: 49ers -5½, 46½
Analysis: The Philip Rivers story is compelling, but he wasn’t effective in the Colts’ close loss to the Seahawks. Indianapolis’ offense managed only 215 total yards. The 49ers could still win the NFC West with some help.
Pick: 49ers 28, Colts 14
