NFL Week 16: Packers’ incentive is pivotal against Cardinals

If not for the Carolina Panthers' run of perfection, Bruce Arians' work in Arizona might make him the runaway winner for NFL Coach of the Year.

When regular-season win totals were posted in May, the Cardinals and Panthers were projected as middle-of-the-pack teams, each with a win total of 8½. Carolina (14-0) is a bigger overachiever than Arizona (12-2) with two games to go.

Green Bay was the Super Bowl favorite in early September, but the Packers (10-4) are clinging to a one-game division lead over Minnesota and fighting for the No. 3 playoff seed in the NFC.

The stakes are raised as Green Bay faces Arizona today, and Las Vegas handicapper Mike Scalleat is backing the Packers as 4½-point road underdogs.

"This is a bigger game for Green Bay," said Scalleat, winner of the Westgate SuperContest mini-contest for the season's final three weeks in 2013. "The Cardinals are a team I like a lot. They look like a Super Bowl team. But Arizona is three games up on Seattle in the NFC West, and the Packers need this win more to stay ahead of the Vikings. I think this number is a little too high."

The total is 50 for what shapes up as a high-scoring game. Aaron Rodgers has passed for five touchdowns during Green Bay's three-game win streak. Arizona has the league's No. 2 scoring offense (31.8 points per game) behind Carson Palmer.

Rodgers will be attacking a Cardinals secondary minus Tyrann Mathieu, a ball-hawking safety lost for the season with a knee injury.

"That weakens Arizona's secondary a little bit," Scalleat said. "It's going to hurt them. I don't know how much. If Rodgers can make some plays, I think the Packers can win this game."

The Packers are 5-2 against the spread on the road after covering in a 30-20 victory over Oakland last week.

"Whether it's Arizona, Green Bay or Seattle, whoever is playing Carolina in the playoffs, I'm betting against Carolina," Scalleat said.

Scalleat (JimFeist.com) scouts the rest of today's Week 16 schedule:

New York Giants at Minnesota (-6): The suspension of Odell Beckham Jr. is a big loss for the Giants. Beckham had nine touchdown catches in the past seven games. He has been Eli Manning's go-to guy for big plays. The Vikings probably have more to play for. Adrian Peterson is leading the league in rushing with 1,314 yards, and he's due to bust loose after three consecutive quiet weeks. The Giants rank last in total defense (423 yards per game) and 23rd in scoring defense (25.6 points per game). I like the Vikings.

Chicago at Tampa Bay (-3½): It looks as if the Bears are just playing out the string. After winning at Green Bay on Thanksgiving, their season basically ended. The Buccaneers are 6-8 and trying to get to 8-8. The team is playing hard for coach Lovie Smith. If Jameis Winston avoids turnovers, Tampa Bay should win. The Buccaneers have a good running game and big receivers to help Winston. Bears receiver Alshon Jeffery is doubtful with a hamstring injury. This is a small number to cover. I played Tampa Bay at minus-3.

Carolina (-6½) at Atlanta: The Falcons were embarrassed 38-0 by the Panthers two weeks ago, so revenge has to be a factor. I think Atlanta will show up. Cam Newton took some shots last week in a physical game against the Giants, and Carolina cannot afford an injury to its quarterback. The Falcons have weapons on offense, and they must be feeling more confident after stopping a six-game losing streak. I lean a little to Atlanta. I wouldn't lay the points in this spot.

Dallas at Buffalo (-6): I expect the Cowboys to struggle with Kellen Moore at quarterback, especially with Dez Bryant being out. The Dallas offense will stay mostly on the ground. The Bills were terrible in a loss at Washington last week, and running back LeSean McCoy is doubtful with a knee injury. The Dallas defense is still showing up. Buffalo is not a bad team, but it gets hurt by too many penalties. This looks like a play under the total (42½).

Jacksonville at New Orleans (-2½): If Drew Brees is in the game, the Saints will be favored. This line was not posted all week at most books. Don't expect to see much defense. New Orleans allows 30.9 points per game, and Jacksonville allows 27.1. I'm going to play this over the total (51) because it appears Brees is starting.

San Francisco at Detroit (-10): Matthew Stafford played well Monday, completing 22 of 25 passes against the Saints. Stafford has 12 touchdowns and one interception in the past four games. But I can't lay double digits. The San Francisco defense was pretty good last week in a loss to Cincinnati. I'm not going to play this game, but I lean to the underdog.

Cleveland at Kansas City (-11): The Chiefs have won eight straight games, but their offense is not explosive, so it's tough to cover double digits. Johnny Manziel completed 40 of 63 passes in his past two starts against Seattle and San Francisco. He can make a few things happen. I don't think the Browns will win, but they can hang within the number.

Indianapolis at Miami (-2½): The Colts still have a chance in the AFC South if Houston loses, so they should give a good effort. But they have to keep quarterback Matt Hasselbeck on the field and avoid using Charlie Whitehurst. Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill has not shown much, and at 5-9 their season is shot. I lean to the Colts, but I'm not betting this game.

New England (-3) at New York Jets: I put the Jets on a teaser at plus-10½. It's a big game for the Jets in the AFC playoff race. The Patriots won the first meeting 30-23 on Oct. 25. This is going to be a battle, as usual. Julian Edelman is still out, so Tom Brady is missing a key receiver, but I would probably go with New England laying a field goal.

Houston (-3½) at Tennessee: Brandon Weeden is starting at quarterback for the Texans, who could struggle on the road in this spot. The Titans are without rookie Marcus Mariota, but I don't mind Zach Mettenberger at quarterback. The hook could be the difference, and I'll go with the underdog.

St. Louis at Seattle (-12½): The Seahawks are strong right now, and their defense will hold down Rams quarterback Case Keenum. This should be at least a two-touchdown win for Seattle, but I think a low-scoring game is a better bet. The weather is not going to be great, probably cold and rainy. I'll play this under 40½.

Pittsburgh (-10) at Baltimore: I have the Steelers on a teaser at minus-3. But for a straight bet, I would look at the Ravens getting 10 or more. Baltimore will get up for a division rivalry that is almost always close. Obviously, Pittsburgh has a huge edge at quarterback with Ben Roethlisberger. But it's just hard to lay double digits. The favorites went on a big run last week, so you have to think we'll see some ugly underdogs cover this week.

— Compiled by Matt Youmans/Las Vegas Review-Journal