Notre Dame has too much at stake to stumble vs. Northwestern
Northwestern has lived a charmed life under coach Pat Fitzgerald. But this season might be the most charmed yet.
The Wildcats (5-3) are the Big Ten West front-runners. Other points on the team’s resume: a loss to Duke, a loss to Akron, an improbable comeback win at home against Nebraska, a three-point victory over Rutgers and a misleading win over Wisconsin in a game in which the Badgers played without their starting quarterback and Northwestern recovered all three of the game’s fumbles.
Notre Dame (8-0) is good on offense, great on defense and should be focused for one of its two remaining home games, with a College Football Playoff spot at stake.
Northwestern’s defense might succeed for a while, but it eventually should break because its offense won’t be able to move the ball.
I like Notre Dame minus 10.
Four more plays (home team in CAPS):
Texas A&M (+4) over AUBURN: Gus Malzahn’s team is 2-10 against the spread in its last 12 as a home favorite, including 1-4 this season with two outright losses. The hope for Auburn is that Texas A&M comes in tired after back-to-back road games. This is not a good matchup for Auburn, though. Texas A&M’s rush defense is among the country’s best, and Auburn’s offensive line has not generated anything on the ground this season. Jarrett Stidham and Auburn’s receivers can exploit the Aggies secondary, but that’s assuming that Stidham doesn’t have pressure in his face. He hasn’t fared well when that happens.
Michigan State (-2½) over MARYLAND: I don’t advise betting on this game solely on the basis of the drama in College Park. The reinstatement of D.J. Durkin, then his subsequent firing, probably has not helped preparation. But this type of emotion can work in favor of a team just as much as it can work against it. I liked the Spartans even before all the news. The defense has been outstanding, giving up 17 points (Penn State), 21 (Michigan) and 13 (Purdue) in its last three games. Maryland’s offense is not close to as good as those three.
Iowa (+3) over PURDUE: Iowa is 6-2 ATS this season, not covering against Wisconsin and Penn State. The Hawkeyes have beaten everyone else by double digits. Rondale Moore, Purdue’s all-everything freshman receiver, is a game-time decision. Iowa quarterback Nathan Stanley injured his thumb last week, but as long as it doesn’t bother him too much, he should exploit the Purdue secondary. Iowa’s defensive line should contain Purdue’s running game.
South Carolina (pick) over MISSISSIPPI: The Gamecocks aren’t great at anything but have no glaring weaknesses. Ole Miss is the Southeastern Conference’s most one-dimensional offense, and South Carolina coach Will Muschamp is an outstanding defensive game-planner. The Rebels have allowed 43.2 points per game against SEC competition since the start of last season, including at least 31 in 11 of those 12 games.
Last week: 2-2-1 ATS
Season: 21-22-2
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Christopher Smith of AL.com, NOLA.com and MyBookie is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.
