Time running out for Manning, but Giants a live ‘dog at Dallas

Eli Manning and the New York Giants are displaying their old habit of fading late in the season. But this time they have a reasonable excuse, and they also still have a legitimate shot to reach the postseason.

The Giants (6-6) are riding a four-game losing skid, yet the excuse is three of those setbacks were dealt by the NFL's elite teams -- Green Bay, New Orleans and San Francisco -- and the fourth came at the hands of the so-called "Dream Team" from Philadelphia.

It's tough to say where the Dallas Cowboys (7-5) fit into the shuffle, but a tight NFC East race will begin to get sorted out today.

SystemPlays.com handicapper Doug Fitz recommends a play on the Giants as 3½-point road underdogs in a prime-time showdown between two of the league's most unpredictable quarterbacks in Manning and the Cowboys' Tony Romo.

"The Cowboys are an inconsistent enigma. Romo can be very good or very bad, and he has been on both ends of that spectrum plenty," Fitz said. "The Giants usually play better on the road, and Manning is having a great year."

Dallas, which lost at Arizona 19-13 in overtime last week, is 2-4 against the spread at home this season. But the Cowboys are getting star receiver Miles Austin back after a four-game absence because of injury.

The running attacks will be major factors in the decision. DeMarco Murray, a rookie from Las Vegas, has rushed for 799 yards in the Cowboys' past seven games. The Giants benefited from Ahmad Bradshaw's return from injury a week ago.

Manning, who has passed for 3,705 yards and 23 touchdowns this season, has an 8-6 career record against Dallas.

"The Giants played a great game last week against the Packers, and now that Bradshaw is back, they have the balanced offense they lacked," Fitz said. "Getting points with a good team, when it is facing an opponent that is shaky at best at home, will cash your ticket more often than not."

Fitz scouts the rest of today's Week 14 schedule:

■ Indianapolis at Baltimore (-16½): This is a play against the Ravens. Expect a game similar to last week when New England, as a 20-point favorite, seemed disinterested and beat the Colts, 31-24. What is going to motivate Baltimore to play hard enough to cover this huge number? I'll say take the points, but not as a strong opinion.

■ Houston at Cincinnati (-3): The Bengals were a great point-spread team until hitting an 0-3-1 ATS skid. They certainly aren't playing with the same intensity, and their defense has fallen apart. The Texans are 5-0-1 ATS over their past six and 8-3-1 ATS overall, including 4-2 ATS on the road. The absence of wide receiver Andre Johnson should be overcome by Arian Foster and the running attack, one of the league's best. T.J. Yates has been solid as a quarterback replacement. Houston's defense is allowing only 15.7 points per game and has held six consecutive opponents to 14 points or fewer. I think the wrong team is favored, so this is a strong play on the Texans.

■ Oakland at Green Bay (-11½): The Raiders played an awful game last week, losing 34-14 at Miami, but good teams usually bounce back. The Packers (8-4 ATS) were fortunate to beat the Giants. Oakland's excellent offense should be able to score enough against Green Bay's mediocre defense to keep this within the number. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers probably go to 13-0, but I'll lean to the double-digit underdog.

■ Kansas City at New York Jets (-10½): The Chiefs are a decent road team (4-2 ATS) despite their 5-7 record. The Jets are 3-3 ATS at home and cannot be trusted laying this high a number. Kansas City is not getting much from its offense with Tyler Palko at quarterback, but I lean to the underdog.

■ Minnesota at Detroit (-10): It appears Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (left ankle sprain) and quarterback Christian Ponder (hip pointer) will play, though both are listed as questionable. Peterson, who has 872 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns, has missed the past two games. Minnesota's offense functioned well without Peterson against a tremendous Denver defense last week. The Lions are 2-5 straight up and ATS in their past seven games. This line is inflated for a division rivalry, so I'll take the Vikings.

■ New Orleans (-3½) at Tennessee: Chris Johnson has come alive recently to boost the running game for the Titans, who are 3-0-1 ATS in their past four games. The Saints destroy everyone on the Superdome turf, but they are a different team on the road and especially on grass, where their offensive speed seems to be neutralized. It would not be much of a surprise if Tennessee wins straight up, so I'll play the home underdog.

■ Philadelphia at Miami (-3): It doesn't matter much to me that Eagles quarterback Michael Vick returns from injury for this game. Philadelphia was not very good when he was playing and still is not very good. The Dolphins are one of the hottest teams in the league, with a 4-2 straight up and 6-0 ATS record in their past six games, after starting 0-7. I lean to Miami.

■ New England (-8) at Washington: The Patriots took it easy on the Colts, and I don't believe they will be too motivated in this spot, either, with a trip to Denver looming next week. The Redskins, who have covered two of their past three games, are getting a boost from rookie running back Roy Helu. I lean to Washington getting more than a touchdown.

■ Atlanta (-3) at Carolina: Matt Ryan is a talented quarterback, but the Falcons are similar to the Saints in that they play well at home but have problems on the road, where they are 2-4 ATS. Rookie quarterback Cam Newton is still exceeding expectations for Carolina, which is 4-2 ATS at home. Teams that can score like the Panthers are usually good plays in the right spots as home underdogs. I'll take the field goal with Carolina.

■ Tampa Bay (-2½) at Jacksonville: These are two of the worst teams in the league, and it's tough to bet matchups like this, but I'll give the edge to the Jaguars. After an embarrassing home loss to the Chargers on Monday, Jacksonville will look for some redemption. The Buccaneers have lost six in a row. As bad as the Jaguars' offense is, Tampa Bay's defense is worse.

■ San Francisco (-3½) at Arizona: It's doubtful the Cardinals can pull off consecutive home upsets. The 49ers, 4-1 straight up and ATS on the road, have the vastly superior talent. This is a surprisingly short number for San Francisco, the best ATS team in the league at 10-1-1, so I lean to the favorite.

■ Chicago at Denver (-3½): With Tim Tebow at quarterback, the Broncos have won and covered their past five games, but they were underdogs in each one. I believe it becomes a different story now that Denver is favored. Despite the loss of running back Matt Forte, the Bears can rely on their defense to shut down Tebow and the Broncos. This should be a closer game than a lot of people expect, and I'll make a strong play on Chicago.

Buffalo at San Diego (-7): Now that the Chargers have snapped their six-game losing streak, conventional wisdom would say they should keep rolling, especially against the slumping Bills. Well, conventional wisdom has a nasty habit of sending betting tickets into the trash. San Diego still is overrated and poorly coached, and I expect this team to revert to its underachieving ways. The Chargers should win the game, but this number is too high for a team that is 1-5 ATS at home. I'll say it's a strong play on the Bills.

COMPILED BY MATT YOUMANS/REVIEW-JOURNAL