Broncos are back in business

Now that quarterback Kyle Orton is healthy and back in the huddle, the Denver Broncos appear ready to regroup for the stretch run.

The Broncos were the hottest topic in the NFL after their 6-0 start. An ankle injury to Orton and a four-game losing streak cooled much of the optimism.

The Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall said he expects the Broncos to return to winning form as 5-point favorites at Kansas City today. Marshall is siding with Denver, but he said under the total of 381/2 is an even better bet.

"The formula is working again for the Broncos. I think they can replicate what they did in the first six weeks," Marshall said. "This is a 20-10 sort of game with Denver winning."

The Broncos are 9-2 under the total this season. Their formula was successful when Orton managed the offense and the defense dominated in low-scoring games. All of that was evident in Denver's 26-6 win over the New York Giants on Thanksgiving.

Orton and wideout Brandon Marshall are hooking up for occasional big plays, and rookie running back Knowshon Moreno is more of a threat.

The Chiefs, 3-8 straight up and 5-6 against the spread, are struggling to produce consistent offense behind quarterback Matt Cassel.

If there is a cautionary sign, it's the history of this AFC West rivalry. The Broncos have covered in just two of their past 10 trips to Arrowhead Stadium.

"Orton is back, and they need him to run this ball-control offense," Marshall said. "The Broncos have suddenly emerged as most likely to be one of the AFC wild-card teams."

Marshall (goldsheet.com) breaks down the rest of today's Week 13 lineup:

• Oakland at Pittsburgh (-141/2): Ben Roethlisberger is back at quarterback for the Steelers. Off losses at Baltimore and Kansas City, Pittsburgh is in some trouble right now. Oakland quarterback Bruce Gradkowski manages the game better than JaMarcus Russell, but Gradkowski is not that dynamic. I don't see how the Raiders are going to score much. The Raiders have been held to 10 points or fewer in six games. I would lay the points with the Steelers.

• Houston at Jacksonville (Pick): I still like the Texans, and this is one of my favorite plays. Houston is the most snake-bit team in the league this year. The Texans keep finding ways to lose, but their defense has played well since September. I don't trust the Jaguars, who are 2-11 against the spread (ATS) at home since last season. Jacksonville has deficiencies on its offensive line. The Jaguars also will be missing cornerback Rashean Mathis, and that's bad news against Texans wideout Andre Johnson.

• Tennessee at Indianapolis (-7): This might be a game the Colts lose. With their schedule, if they win this one, the Titans could run the table and reach the playoffs. The dynamics have changed completely for the Titans since their bye week, with Vince Young giving them a needed spark. But their defense also got healthy by getting cornerback Cortland Finnegan and some veterans back. Young has been making enough plays, and running back Chris Johnson is such a threat. Indianapolis is 4-9 ATS at Lucas Oil Stadium. The road team is 10-1 ATS in Colts games this season, and it has been down to the wire every week recently.

• Philadelphia (-51/2) at Atlanta: It's easy to dismiss the Falcons because quarterback Matt Ryan is out and Chris Redman is in there. But more than that, it's too easy to run against Atlanta's vulnerable defense. Eagles coach Andy Reid just gets too pass happy, and Donovan McNabb blows hot and cold. The Falcons are going for their ninth straight win at home, but I think that streak is going to run out. The number is creeping up, but I'll lean to the Eagles.

• Detroit at Cincinnati (-13): There is an interesting angle here. The underdog is 11-0 in Cincinnati games this season. I'm not quite sure if rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford is going to play for Detroit. But the Bengals are notorious for playing to the level of their opposition, and they are not looking too sharp the last couple of weeks. I'm going to take the Lions, but it's not my favorite pick of the week.

• New Orleans (-91/2) at Washington: The Saints could be excused for going flat after their Monday night victory over New England. Normally it would be a good argument for the Redskins, but I like the New Orleans defense. Coordinator Gregg Williams has an aggressive, attacking unit that is making big plays. The Saints are plus-10 in turnovers with seven defensive touchdowns. I don't know if Washington can do a lot against the New Orleans defense, so I'll lay the points.

• Tampa Bay at Carolina (-51/2): Jake Delhomme is out and Matt Moore is starting at quarterback for the Panthers. I don't want to overreact to that because backup QBs can win in this league, and it might be a positive. I think Moore is just going to hand off to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Tampa Bay has shown enough that it is worth consideration, but I don't like what Bucs coach Raheem Morris is doing by firing both coordinators. Rookie quarterback Josh Freeman is 3-1 ATS as the starter. I'll take Tampa Bay and the points.

• St. Louis at Chicago (-81/2): I can't believe how bad the Bears have been, and quarterback Jay Cutler has been embarrassingly bad on multiple occasions. Chicago has lost key guys on a defense that is kind of a mess right now. The Bears can't run the ball against good defenses, their receivers are subpar and Cutler can't overcome that. But they have been able to beat the terrible teams at home, and the Rams offense is so limited. I'll go with Chicago.

• San Diego (-131/2) at Cleveland: The Chargers and QB Philip Rivers have so many different ways they can do it. Rivers has 19 TD passes and six interceptions. The Browns can't score unless they play Detroit. The Chargers have won and covered their past three road games. I can't bring myself to back Cleveland.

• San Francisco at Seattle (Pick): Justin Forsett, who had 130 yards rushing at St. Louis last week, is giving the Seahawks something on the ground. That should give Matt Hasselbeck the dimension he needs to throw. San Francisco has been offering pretty good value under coach Mike Singletary at 13-4-2 ATS. I do have questions about 49ers quarterback Alex Smith, who has been erratic on the road. This is a little lean to the Seahawks, but they're nothing special.

• Minnesota (-31/2) at Arizona: Everything could depend on the status of Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner, who has practiced and is listed as questionable. But Matt Leinart didn't look too bad last week. Arizona's defense has stepped up and become a strength. I can't knock anything Minnesota is doing. Brett Favre has 24 touchdown passes and three interceptions. I would take Favre over Leinart. But we'll see about Warner's availability.

• Dallas (-21/2) at N.Y. Giants: It's do-or-die for the Giants. But I don't think they are going to rally because Eli Manning isn't healthy and running back Brandon Jacobs is banged up. If the Giants have to go with David Carr at quarterback, they have no chance at all. The Cowboys and Tony Romo have failed in December, but Dallas' running backs are healthy. I'll stick my neck out and pick the Cowboys to avenge their Week 2 loss. The Giants are 1-5 straight up with no covers in their past six games.

• New England (-41/2) at Miami: As long as Tom Brady is in there, I'll go with the Patriots. I think the Brady injury is one of those smokescreen things. The visitor has covered the past five in the series. Miami quarterback Chad Henne is starting to fade late in the year. The Dolphins are 5-0 over the total at home, so the over (451/2) looks interesting.

Compiled by Las Vegas Review-Journal sports writer Matt Youmans.