Peace for now, but change is coming in college sports

A major break from realignment has finally come to college sports.

Multiyear TV contracts are in place for most of the major conferences, and the Big Ten is getting ready to lock in a deal that would make Warren Buffett envious.

The schools in those five power leagues are in no hurry to add members and split the financial pie, and two conferences have provisions that make it especially difficult for teams to leave.

That means the Mountain West — which is still recovering from losing Texas Christian to the Big 12 Conference, Utah to what’s now the Pac-12 and Brigham Young to football independence — can plan for the future with the realistic expectation it won’t get poached.

For now.

Change is coming in about 10 years when the TV contracts begin to expire and after various lawsuits regarding athletes’ rights are settled. This change could make the most recent rounds of realignment look tamer than Tiger Woods on a Sunday in a major.

“It won’t be just the power five (conferences), it will be 90 to 100 schools,” said Dennis Dodd, national college football columnist for CBSSports.com. “It won’t be the 65 (major colleges) there are now. It won’t be realignment, but separation. The key is will there be enough schools, enough money and enough power to arrange the basketball tournament? They know they can do it in football.”

Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick told Dodd in March he could see what amounts to a semipro division being developed, separating schools that pay athletes from those that will maintain the current amateur-based model. Dodd came up with his own alignment using that model and included UNLV in the mix of those going semipro.

“You don’t like these set of rules?” Swarbrick said. “Go play in that association.”

The next batch of broadcast deals also could play a major role. Dodd said some schools could form their own alliances based on deals with Amazon Prime or Netflix.

That’s in the future, and much can change, of course. Not many foresaw the breakup of traditional rivalries over the recent years, such as Texas and Texas A&M no longer playing each other.

For now, at least, the waters in college sports are calm given the long-term TV contracts that soon will all be in place. Such deals give the five power conferences little incentive to add members.

Even more importantly, the Atlantic Coast Conference and Big 12 have language in their TV deals that states if a member school were to leave, the TV money would still go to the league being left behind for the entire length of the contract. It’s true that high-powered lawyers could find their way to circumvent that “grant of rights” provision, but it still represents a big obstacle for teams considering bolting for another conference.

This moment of peace is good news for the Mountain West, which can plan for the future without worrying about whether to add Texas-El Paso.

For now, at least.

“I think it’s going to settle in the next 10 years,” Dodd said, “and then you’ll see the separation of the haves and have-nots.”

■ ONE CHAMPION — The Big 12 came under criticism last season for producing two champions in Baylor and Texas Christian, and both were left out of the initial College Football Playoff.

Now the conference, which doesn’t play a championship game, has settled on a tiebreaker, with head-to-head being the top decider. If the tiebreaker had been in place last season, Baylor would have been the Big 12 champion because it defeated TCU.

Not that this will make a difference. The playoff remains at four teams, so one of the big boys is going to get left out anyway. A committee picks the field, and because it’s a subjective vote, a tiebreaker isn’t going to carry much weight if the other four conference champions possess better resumes.

That was the case last season when it became clear Ohio State had become one of the nation’s top four teams, and that Alabama, Florida State and Oregon deserved the other three spots. How the selection committee got to that final four is another matter, but it was the right four.

■ GOLSON GONE — All eyes have been on which Ohio State quarterback might transfer, but then Notre Dame’s Everett Golson grabbed attention Thursday when he announced he was leaving.

Some UNLV fans took to Twitter hoping Golson would choose the Rebels. As a senior transfer, he could be able to play immediately, but it’s wishful thinking on the part of those Rebels fans.

He’s far more likely to end up at a power such as Louisiana State, South Carolina or Florida State. Golson can go to one of those places and compete for a national championship.

UNLV first-year coach Tony Sanchez has sold a lot of dreams to recruits, but that one would be a fantasy.

Contact Mark Anderson at manderson@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2914. Follow him on Twitter: @markanderson65. He is first vice president of the Football Writers Association of America.