Super Bowl betting capsule

Time: 3:25 p.m. Line: Colts -5 Total: 561/2

TV: CBS (8) RADIO: KWWN-AM (1100)

• WEATHER: Mid-70s, 20 percent chance of rain

• FACTS: New Orleans failed to cover against Minnesota two weeks ago despite a plus-4 turnover edge. In all other games the past two seasons in which a team had such a positive margin, clubs were 33-0 against the line (straight up, too). ... Indianapolis and QB Peyton Manning rallied from an 11-point deficit in the AFC title game against the Jets to win, 30-17. The only team that went on to win the Super Bowl that crawled out of a deeper hole was Washington in the January 1988 divisional round, when it came back from 14-0 in Chicago to beat the Bears, 21-17. ... If games were to end after one quarter, the Saints' record their past 13 games would be 2-9-2. The Colts, meanwhile, have trailed after one period four times all season. ... The Vikings fumbled six times against the Saints in the NFC title game, tied for third most in league postseason history. ... New Orleans' defense, ranked 25th in the league, was on the field for 82 plays that game (none in overtime), the sixth most for any team all season. The Saints ran only 55 plays, a differential of 27. The greatest gap in a game this season was 49 when Miami ran 84 plays and Indianapolis 35 in Week 2, but the Colts won anyway, 27-23. ... Those 35 plays run by the Colts are the fewest by a team since Oakland had 34 in a 24-0 loss to Atlanta in Week 9 last season. ... The last time the Saints played in Miami, in Week 7, they rallied from 21 points down to win 46-34, matching the greatest comeback in team history. ... New Orleans had seven three-and-outs against Minnesota, four more than it had in any of the other 16 games Drew Brees started at QB. ... Scott Green will be the referee. He worked one victory apiece for New Orleans and Indianapolis, including the Colts' bizarre triumph over New England in which the Patriots were foiled on that controversial fourth-down try in the waning minutes. ... The Saints were outgained by 218 yards against Minnesota, the greatest negative discrepancy for a winning team in postseason history, according to the Elias folks. ... In half of Indianapolis' 14 regular-season victories, it overcame a fourth-quarter deficit to prevail. In each game, the Colts were favored, including by 121/2 points over San Francisco in an 18-14 home triumph. ... The Saints have scored TDs on eight opening drives this season, the most in the league. Indy has seven. On the other hand, New Orleans has yielded a first-possession touchdown in nine of its past 12 games. That stretch not only is the worst for any team this year but the lousiest for anyone the past six seasons. ... The league says the Super Bowl will be "distributed" to 185 foreign countries. Who's not getting it? WorldAlmanac.com says only 193 countries are in the world, give or take a couple. ... Brees is the league's top-rated passer. The last time such a No. 1 QB won the Super Bowl was Peyton Manning three seasons ago. ... The Tampa Bay curse: No team that has lost to the Buccaneers during the regular season has gone on to win that year's Super Bowl. The Saints lost to Tampa Bay in Week 16, 20-17 in OT. In a reverse twist, in 2002, when the Bucs won the title, they were two-time losers to the Saints. ... No team in the league defeated both the Saints and Colts this season. In 1979, however, San Diego had the most dominant performances against Super combatants, beating the Los Angeles Rams 40-16 and eventual world champion Pittsburgh, 35-7. ... New Orleans is 4-for-4 scoring touchdowns when starting a drive in enemy territory in the postseason. Indianapolis is 0-for-1 in such possessions. In the regular season, however, New Orleans had only five short touchdown marches. ... Now that New Orleans finally has reached the Big Game, only four existing franchises haven't -- the Browns, Texans, Jaguars and Lions. Detroit, though, did win three NFL titles in the 1950s. ... During the regular season, New Orleans outgained foes by 46 yards a game, better than the Colts' plus-23.9 edge. Over the past eight Super Bowls, the team with the better differential has gone 3-5. But in the 20 years before that, they were 16-4.

• ANALYSIS: Judging by the over/under number of 561/2, matching the season high for any game this season (New Orleans-Arizona three weeks ago) and also the greatest for any Super Bowl, it's sure to be a high-scoring game. Then again, if Manning goes down early, the 100-1 odds that Indianapolis will get shut out seems attractive.

Anyway, both squads have QBs who are among the most accurate in history and an outstanding fleet of receivers, but it's the running games that separate the teams.

The Colts ground game had the worst output in the league at 80.9 yards a game in the regular season, and it was less productive in the playoffs. And since the Saints have shown in the past they can shut down premier backs (Adrian Peterson had 32 yards on 21 carries last season), Indy's ground game doesn't pose near the challenge behind Joseph Addai, who hasn't shown giddy-up in his stride.

That's the Saints' edge, with Reggie Bush, hungry for a new contract, being an all-purpose threat and with the power running of Pierre Thomas (5.4 yards per carry) and Mike Bell. And if the Saints can come close to having a ball-control offense, the presence of standout Colts DEs Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney (questionable, ankle) will be lessened.

The key for New Orleans is to not fall behind quickly, as is its custom, and to have strong safety play in the secondary to try to befuddle Manning, who has a tendency to lose track of aggressive defenders.

If the Saints win the toss, the ball should get rolling in their direction. And if that happens, Louisiana had better mobilize the National Guard to protect New Orleans again.

• FORECAST: Saints 26, Colts 21

• RECORD: Conference title games: 1-1 vs. spread; 2-0 straight up

Season total: 125-133-8 vs. spread; 160-106 straight up

BOB CHRIST/SPECIAL TO THE LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL