Ill-prepared QB hurts Vikings

There is a lot to like about the Minnesota Vikings, and running back Adrian Peterson tops the list. When carrying the football, he's a punishing purple blur.

"Peterson is a beast and a tremendous running back," said professional gambler Steve Fezzik, whose admiration for the Vikings stops there today.

Minnesota is favored by 31/2 to 4 points over the Cleveland Browns on the opening Sunday of the NFL regular season. Fezzik finds more to like about the home underdog in this spot.

"The only game that I could personally bet big on is Cleveland," he said. "I really think the Browns are a slightly below-average team. But it's a bet against the Vikings.

"(The line) opened 21/2, and it's up to 4 some places, and for the life of me, I don't understand it. An hour before game time, all the wiseguys will take plus-4. The wiseguys and sports book directors will be screaming for Cleveland, and everybody else will be rooting for the Vikings."

Peterson, the league's leading rusher last season with 1,760 yards, will be the workhorse of the Minnesota offense. The media is focusing more on quarterback Brett Favre, who reported to his new team late after again coming out of retirement.

"Without training camp, Favre is just not going to be ready to go," Fezzik said. "I don't understand why the Vikings would bring in a quarterback who doesn't make them much better."

Cleveland, which finished 4-12 last season against a tough schedule, has a new look, too. Eric Mangini has replaced Romeo Crennel as coach, and Brady Quinn takes over as the starting quarterback after beating out Derek Anderson.

"It does concern me when there's a quarterback controversy, because the coach is saying, 'I don't have any good quarterbacks,' " Fezzik said.

The Browns covered 10 of their last 15 at home for Crennel. With an ill-prepared Favre and a seemingly inflated point spread, Fezzik said, "everything points to Cleveland."

Fezzik is coming off a highly successful year as an NFL handicapper. He won the prestigious Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest and tied for first in the South Point's pro football contest.

"I got really, really lucky," he said. "You have to win your races and your coin flips."

His plays in the Hilton contest this week are Cleveland, Philadelphia, St. Louis, San Francisco and Pittsburgh, which won but failed to cover against Tennessee on Thursday.

"It's hard to win in Week 1 after all these games have been dissected for three months. These numbers are pretty darn solid," he said. "This is probably the hardest week to win with the right side. The correct sides become incorrect when the lines move too much.

"There's going to be one huge score, at least one game where you're going to scratch your head and say, 'How did that happen?' I reserve the right to change my mind on all these teams after seeing them in Week 1. I change my mind all the time."

Fezzik's analysis of the rest of today's Week 1 schedule:

• Miami at Atlanta (-4): I think there's a reason Atlanta never has had back-to-back winning seasons in the NFL. If I had to pick, I would take the points with Miami, but it's certainly a tough game to call. Everyone is betting against the Dolphins this year because of their difficult schedule. I think both teams will miss the playoffs, largely because of their schedules.

• Kansas City at Baltimore (-121/2): This line opened at 7 with a total of 38, so you're not stealing by getting the Ravens at 12 and under 36. Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel is a game-time decision. I don't have an opinion on this game, but I'm rooting for the Chiefs to get their doors blown off. I think Kansas City does have hope, so I'm rooting for the Chiefs to get crushed so I can bet on them in better spots later in the year. Baltimore will win nine or 10 games and make the playoffs.

• Philadelphia (-21/2) at Carolina: These are two overrated teams. I think the Panthers are going to be way down, and the Eagles are going to be down, as well. Michael Vick was not a very good quarterback, and he's been in jail for two years, and now he's going to improve the team and improve the chemistry? I don't feel he's good for chemistry. I think the Eagles are going to miss the playoffs. I'm really appalled the Eagles' fans gave Vick a standing ovation. I will root for everything bad to happen to Philadelphia this season. I'll pass on this game. But if the line hits 3, you might want to bet Carolina at plus-3.

Week 1 is not a good time to try to get rich playing over the totals. But Philadelphia-Carolina, you could probably go over 431/2. That's the only over that I recommend.

• Denver at Cincinnati (-41/2): This opened Broncos minus-3. But this is one of those strange games; Cincinnati is going to kill this team. I think Denver is one of the worst teams in the NFL. I'll predict Denver does not get to 14 points. I've got the Bengals here at Pick. I like the under (43). Carson Palmer went down last year, but he's healthy, and the Bengals are looking to bounce back.

• New York Jets at Houston (-41/2): I don't know how well Mark Sanchez, the Jets' rookie quarterback, is going to play. I have to pass all the way around on this game.

• Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-7): Here are two teams I don't like. The Jaguars still have offensive line problems, I don't think David Garrard is a very good quarterback, and coach Jack Del Rio is on the hot seat. I think the Colts are down, and their streak of winning 12 games a season is going to end. I'll bet against these teams in good spots during the year.

• Detroit at New Orleans (-13): Lost in the Lions' 0-16 season was the fact they almost beat Minnesota twice. Root for the Lions to get crushed, and bet on them in Week 2 against the Vikings. The Saints look to be a juggernaut offensively, and I think they're going to win 11 games.

• Dallas (-51/2) at Tampa Bay: The Cowboys opened at minus-3 (minus-105), and I got some of that. I like Dallas up to minus-5, and when it hits 7, I like Tampa Bay. I played under 42 (the total is now 39).

The Bucs have the hardest schedule in the league. They are wasting a home game by playing the Patriots in London. The Cowboys are going to be good, and they're going to make the playoffs.

• San Francisco at Arizona (-6): The 49ers have a new coach in Mike Singletary, they're motivated, and they're probably going to win seven or eight games. I think the Cardinals are coming way down. They lost both coordinators, and they have a flashy offense and no heart. Kurt Warner will get injured, and the worst thing that could happen is he gets hurt and keeps playing. I will predict the wheels completely come off the Cardinals this year. I'm penciling in Arizona at 5-11. This is one underdog I think the squares and sharps both will take.

• Washington at New York Giants (-61/2): I played this under 40. I hear the Giants are experimenting with a no-huddle offense, so I'm not going under 371/2. If the number gets up to 7, I might be interested in Washington. The Giants are good on the offensive and defensive lines, and they are going to be the team to beat in the NFC East.

• St. Louis at Seattle (-71/2): Is Seattle going to be back, or is this just a bunch of hype? Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is healthy, and Seattle will win the division if it gets its offensive line problems fixed. I think I would play under 411/2.

• Chicago at Green Bay (-31/2): Everyone will bet this over the total. It's 461/2, and I feel it will close 48. I'll go out on a limb and say the Packers are going to the Super Bowl. Everything looks to be in place for a monster year for the Packers. The Bears' defense is not what it was, but the offense will be better with Jay Cutler at quarterback. Even at 31/2, I think you've got to go with Green Bay.

Compiled by Las Vegas Review-Journal reporter Matt Youmans.