UFC 141 ANALYSIS

Brock Lesnar (5-2) vs. Alistair Overeem (35-11, 1 no contest)

■ CLASS: Heavyweight

■ LINE: Overeem minus-145

■ STORYLINE: They don't get more straightforward than this battle for the top contender spot in the division. Lesnar is a massive, yet explosive, wrestler. Overeem is an accomplished kickboxer with speed and big power. Lesnar has been bombarded with questions about how he "doesn't like to get hit," a ridiculous-sounding phrase that actually has some merit. Lesnar has reacted poorly to taking shots from his last few opponents and Overeem hits as hard as anyone. But if Lesnar can get the fight to the ground, Overeem will likely struggle to get up. With Lesnar as an underdog, it is difficult not to take a shot on him taking the former Dream, Strikeforce and K-1 champion to the ground and ruining his UFC debut.

■ PICK: Lesnar by second-round knockout

Nate Diaz (14-7) vs. Donald Cerrone (17-3, 1 no contest)

■ CLASS: Lightweight

■ LINE: Cerrone minus-260

■ STORYLINE: Don't blink. The rivalry between these two isn't about hype and it's likely they will both come out swinging from the opening bell. While it's difficult to pick against a Diaz brother in a brawl, a frantic early pace probably favors Cerrone. If Diaz gets too worked up and tries to kickbox with Cerrone instead of staying within his game plan, "The Cowboy" could end this early. While Diaz is coming off arguably the best performance of his career, Cerrone already has won four fights in 2011, only one by decision. He is supremely confident coming into this one and out for vengeance after Diaz flipped the $1,000 cowboy hat off his head during Wednesday's news conference.

■ PICK: Cerrone by first-round knockout

Jon Fitch (23-3-1, 1 no contest) vs. Johny Hendricks (11-1)

■ CLASS: Welterweight

■ LINE: Fitch minus-235

■ STORYLINE: Rarely does it seem this easy to predict how the action will play out in a particular fight. Hendricks is one of the best amateur wrestlers to come into the sport and Fitch, who also was a good collegiate wrestler, has been as successful as anyone at adapting his wrestling to MMA. Quite often, however, a matchup of two wrestlers turns into a standup battle when neither fighter can get his opponent to the ground. Fitch might be slightly better technically as a striker, while Hendricks has far more power. It might be worth it to take a shot on Hendricks landing a fight-ending right hand at a nice underdog price, but Fitch had won 21 of his last 22 fights before a draw against BJ Penn in February. He just finds a way to grind out decisions each time he steps in the cage.

■ PICK: Fitch by decision

Vladimir Matyushenko (26-5) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (12-1)

■ CLASS: Light heavyweight

■ LINE: Gustafsson minus-325

■ STORYLINE: Gustafsson, a 24-year-old from Sweden, has been on an absolute tear since suffering the only loss of his career against Phil Davis in April 2010. Gustafsson is strong in just about every area of MMA and has the raw talent to be a future champion. The 40-year-old Matyushenko is a crafty veteran, but these are clearly two careers headed in opposite directions. Look for Gustafsson to overwhelm "The Janitor" with sheer talent. This number is probably too big to warrant a wager on Gustafsson, though it is difficult to imagine Matyushenko being much more than a speed bump in Gustafsson's path in the loaded light heavyweight division.

■ PICK: Gustafsson by second-round knockout

Nam Phan (17-9) vs. Jimy Hettes (9-0)

■ CLASS: Featherweight

■ LINE: Phan minus-220

■ STORYLINE: Phan has the experience edge with nearly three times as many fights overall and three UFC fights already under his belt, but he has received more attention for two exciting fights against Leonard Garcia than any true success in the sport. In fact, though it could be argued Phan was robbed of a win in the first Garcia fight, he has officially won only twice in his last six bouts. He is a solid all-around fighter, but could be at a disadvantage on the ground against Hettes. The 24-year-old Pennsylvania native is a jiu-jitsu specialist with nine submission wins in as many career fights. Hettes might not finish Phan, who has never been submitted, but he should be able to work Phan to the ground and control position enough to at least win two of the rounds.

■ PICK: Hettes by decision

ADAM HILL/LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL