UFC 188 matchups

UFC 188 MATCHUPS

A breakdown of the fights on the main card of UFC 188 Saturday at Mexico City:

Cain Velasquez (13-1) vs. Fabricio Werdum (19-5-1)

· CLASS: Heavyweight title unification bout

· LINE: Velasquez -500

· STORYLINE: Somehow, this matchup between two of the quietest fighters in the sport has turned a bit ugly. Velasquez, the son of Mexican immigrants, is thrilled to finally be competing in his ancestral homeland, something he has discussed for much of his career. During a promotional appearance, Werdum, a Brazilian, called Velasquez “an American who thinks he’s Mexican.” Werdum says he approached Velasquez to shake hands this week and was rebuffed. Velasquez called him “two-faced,” while Werdum said he was just trying to do what he could to promote the fight. Regardless, what was expected to simply be a cordial matchup of the world’s two best heavyweights has some added intrigue. There is no doubt Velasquez is the best fighter in the division. The real question is how he will perform after nearly 20 minutes out of action due to several injuries. Werdum was crowned the interim champion in the meantime and will look to pull the upset and become the undisputed champ. He has beaten the man widely considered to the best heavyweight in the world once before. Werdum stunned Fedor Emelianenko in a Strikeforce bout back in 2010. Emelianenko may have been past his prime, however. Velasquez may just be entering it. He is a dominant wrestler with unmatched cardio among the heavyweights and has learned to use his strikes very effectively. Werdum is a submission ace with drastically improved standup. Velasquez is just on another level.

· PICK: Velasquez by third-round knockout

Gilbert Melendez (22-4) vs. Eddie Alvarez (25-4)

· CLASS: Lightweight

· LINE: Melendez -175

· STORYLINE: This is a matchup that has been discussed since long before either fighter was in the UFC. Alvarez was the longtime champion of Bellator when Melendez was ruling over the Strikeforce lightweight division. Fans and pundits constantly tried to compare them to not only each other, but to whoever was the UFC champion at the time. Now, the hypothetical matchup will become a reality. Neither has found life particularly easy since arriving in the UFC. Melendez dropped a split decision to Benson Henderson in a title fight in his UFC debut. After a win, he suffered the first stoppage loss of his career with a second-round submission defeat against Anthony Pettis in December in another title bout. Alvarez finally made his UFC debut in September after a year of legal wrangling with Bellator. He dropped a decision to Donald Cerrone and finally returns to action tonight. As for the matchup, the two possess fairly similar styles. Both are volume punchers who are very durable. Alvarez probably has a bit more power, but he can also get a bit out of control. That doesn’t work well against Melendez, who is just about impossible to knock out and is a very intelligent counter-striker. While there’s probably value on Alvarez on the betting line, his lack of recent activity is a bit concerning.

· PICK: Melendez by decision

Kelvin Gastelum (11-1) vs. Nate Marquardt (36-14-2)

· CLASS: Middleweight

· LINE: Gastelum -500

· STORYLINE: While it seems Gastelum has been around forever, he is still just 23 years old. The sky is the limit for the former “The Ultimate Fighter” champion. He’s got some new challenges to deal with entering this fight. Mentally, Gastelum is dealing with the first loss of his career. After a 10-0 start, he dropped a split decision to top contender Tyron Woodley in January. How he reacts mentally to the defeat could be a major determining factor in this fight. Perhaps even more significantly, this will be Gastelum’s first appearance at middleweight. He missed weight for the second time as a welterweight before the Woodley fight and decided to move up to 185 pounds. Marquardt moved up two fights ago and has split two fights since. Overall, he has dropped four of his last five bouts. The end appears near for Marquardt, a former Strikeforce champion who fought for the UFC middleweight belt in 2007. He is still very skilled, particularly with his jiu-jitsu and power punches, but it will be tough to find a way to beat a fighter who appears destined for the upper levels of the sport and is also 13 years his junior.

· PICK: Gastelum by second-round knockout

Yair Rodriguez (4-1) vs. Charles Rosa (10-1)

· CLASS: Featherweight

· LINE: Rosa -220

· STORYLINE: Rodriguez will have the home-crowd advantage as he returns to the arena where he captured “The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America” title at UFC 180 in November. This will represent a big step up in competition, however. Rosa has two UFC fights under his belt and while he is 1-1, the loss came in a competitive bout against veteran Dennis Siver. Both fighters like to pressure opponents, but in different ways. Rodriguez will look to launch a striking attack from a variety of angles. That could leave him susceptible to takedowns, which would put Rosa in his comfort zone. He is very dangerous on the ground, having recorded seven submissions in his career. Rodriguez likely won’t have much of an answer once the fight hits the mat.

· PICK: Rosa by second-round submission

Tecia Torres (5-0) vs. Angela Hill (2-0)

· CLASS: Women’s Strawweight

· LINE: Torres -280

· STORYLINE: Hill had just one professional fight before appearing on “The Ultimate Fighter” reality show when the UFC introduced this weight class last year. She has pretty good raw skills, power in particular, but is far from a complete fighter. Torres is much closer to falling into that category. She’s quite polished and while she’s likely to be at a strength disadvantage, Torres should be able to grind her way to a victory. Torres would be best served to stay out of the clinch and stay out of Hill’s power range. She will do that with an assortment of kicks and knees to set up takedowns from the outside. Hill might be very good in a few years. Torres is already one of the best in the division.

· PICK: Torres by decision

ADAM HILL/LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL