Deep field could buoy Chase

CHICAGO -- This finally could be the year Kyle Busch, he of all that raw talent and ability, will win NASCAR's highest honor.

Everyone said the same thing in 2008, when he won eight races and opened the Chase for the Sprint Cup championship as the top seed in the 10-race series. Busch instead opened that Chase with back-to-back clunkers and never contended.

Here he is again, though, headed into Round 1 of the Chase as the top seed and the early favorite to claim the Sprint Cup title.

It's not that simple, though.

This year's Chase field is arguably the deepest to date, and this year's championship is up for grabs.

"It's not somebody's race," Busch said this week, "it's anybody's race."

If that wasn't already evident, it was made crystal clear last week at Richmond in the final Chase qualifying race. Busch had the strongest car until a tire problem took him out of contention. Then it became Jeff Gordon's race to lose, which he did on a late restart when Kevin Harvick seized the victory with Carl Edwards right behind him.

Harvick's win tied him with Busch for a series-best four victories and proved that every time Busch tries to pull away from the competition, his rivals find a way to even it up.

And perhaps the most overlooked guy in this Chase? Well, that's Jimmie Johnson, the five-time defending champion, who doesn't plan on handing his title over without a fight. No one has figured out how to beat Johnson since Kurt Busch and Tony Stewart took the first two Chase titles. Since then, Johnson has collected five championships, including last year when he rallied late to withstand Denny Hamlin's challenge.

Johnson has 19 Chase victories in eight appearances and an average finish of 8.1 -- much better, by a lot, than any other driver. He knows how to turn it up when everything is on the line, and he shouldn't be dismissed because he has just one victory this season.

He said he thinks he's a contender.

"We're certainly hopeful for a sixth," Johnson said. "We are obviously in a good spot. We've proven to ourselves time and time again what we are capable of."

Right there with him is Hendrick Motorsports teammate Gordon, who waged the most incredible title race to date against Johnson in 2007. Gordon was almost perfect that season but still couldn't keep pace when Johnson switched to a higher gear.

Gordon has been trying to add a fifth title to his resume since collecting No. 4 in 2001, and he thinks his chances are better than they were in 2007. A three-time winner this season, he probably could have five or six wins had things gone differently at Indianapolis, Bristol and Richmond.

"I feel like we've got more momentum going into the Chase," Gordon said. "I feel like our team is really, really strong. I feel like in '07, while we gave Jimmie a great run and a great battle, I still feel like they had the momentum and were outrunning us just by a little bit on a regular basis.

"We're competing with everybody out there right now, and lately I feel like we've been better than most on a lot of different types of racetracks."

There's also Edwards and Harvick, who at different times this season seemed to be the favorites. Harvick won three early races, then struggled through the summer and took charge late last month in a lengthy (and mandatory) Sunday meeting after an abysmal run at Bristol. He lit a fire at Richard Childress Racing and stormed back into title contention with the Richmond win that sent a statement to the competition.

Edwards, winner of one race and the All-Star race, also dropped off as the year went on. He led the standings for 14 weeks and faded to fourth in points but has rallied with three consecutive top-10 finishes. His contract negotiations with Roush Fenway Racing were wrapped up six weeks ago, and no distractions are standing in his way.

His teammate, Matt Kenseth, should not be discounted. The last champion under the old points system, he has contended for a title only once under the Chase format, in 2006, when he finished a not-so-close second to Johnson. Then came a string of lean years, but Kenseth bounced back this season with two victories.

Kenseth's style of staying steady and collecting top-10 finishes could put him in title contention.

The next group of drivers includes more dark horses than serious contenders, and Brad Keselowski easily is the most dangerous guy in the bunch.

He was 28th in the standings at one point, then turned it up a notch after breaking his ankle while testing in August. He reeled off finishes of first, second, third and first to climb to 11th in points. He got into the Chase via the wild card introduced this year.

He and teammate Kurt Busch drive for Penske Racing, and the organization never has won a Cup title. It could play against them, but then again, Penske never has been this balanced. Busch challenged leadership this year to turn things around, and both cars are remarkably better.

Busch, winner of the inaugural 2004 Chase, thinks he has a shot this year to become a two-time champion.

"I feel like this is one of the best opportunities I've had to shoot at the championship again since 2004," he said.

Stewart, the last driver not named Johnson to win the title, never can be counted out. But this has been a strange year for the two-time champion, who has not kept pace with teammate Ryan Newman and needed to turn it up a notch the past two weeks to make sure he made the Chase.

Stewart is streaky, and he's winless this season. But if he gets hot, he could reel off enough wins to be a contender.