JOHNSON HAS BEST CHANCE EVER TO WIN AT BRISTOL ON SUNDAY
Jimmie Johnson has never won at Bristol among his 49 career wins. Part of the reason is because of his personality; another part is the track's layout.
Johnson’s a nice guy who has never really ruffled anyone’s feathers. He races hard and races very clean. Being nice and racing clean are ways not to get wins at Bristol. If you look at all the greats who were branded tough they'll also be on a list of regular winners at Bristol. Drivers such as Cale Yarborough, Darrell Waltrip, Rusty Wallace, Dale Earnhardt and, more recently, Kyle and Kurt Busch all had that nasty streak it took to win at Bristol.
Johnson has hit royalty status with his four straight Sprint Cup Championships, and has earned the right to bump anyone out of the way he feels like, but it’s just not in his nature. For the last five races, since the track's resurfacing midway through the 2007 season, Bristol has become a much different track from the one we remember all the greats dominating.
Under the old configuration, the low line was always the preferred line with passing nearly impossible on the outside. If a driver found himself behind a slower driver and that driver didn’t move out of the way, well, he was forced out with a “love tap.”
When the new surface was put in it took away much of the banging and bumping we used to see because it gave the track multiple grooves where a driver could run equally well up high or down low. While they still bang a little just because it’s such a short track, it’s not out of need like it used to be. Since the changes, which also decreased the degrees of banking to roughly 26 degrees, the track now runs similar to Dover.
This week Johnson will have his best opportunity to win at Bristol based on practice. He’s dialed in like the machine he is and has never looked better coming into any Bristol race. He used to be considered a slow starter, but after two wins to start the season his team has shown it has taken it up a notch, which is real scary for the rest of the drivers.
Coming right off the truck in Friday’s first practice session, Johnson laid out the fastest time. It wasn’t until about halfway through the session that some drivers changed their setups for qualifying that someone produced a faster time than Johnson.
When they went back into race trim for Saturday’s practice sessions, Johnson was king of the hill in both with the fastest times. During the final practice session, Johnson drove an amazingly high 116 laps with his team getting their best set up possible for long runs on Sunday.
If in fact Dover is the closest we can compare Bristol, Johnson's sweep of both Dover races last season shouldn’t help drivers trying to stop Johnson from dominating another race.
The top candidates to stop Johnson could be his teammates, Jeff Gordon and Mark Martin. Martin took two years off from Bristol wile he was driving a limited schedule in what was supposed to be a prelude to his retirement. Last season he got motivated again after seeing what kind car he was going to get while driving for Rick Hendrick. In the two Bristol races Martin ran, he finished sixth and second. Martin finished the day with a solid sixth in speeds during happy hour.
Jeff Gordon is a five-time winner at Bristol who has led 2,438 laps on the track over his great career. He had a very solid practice session Saturday and looks to have a car capable of getting at least a top-five finish and maybe compete for the win.
The two drivers that really stood out were teammates Juan Pablo Montoya and Jamie McMurray who were both extremely fast in long runs. During happy hour, Montoya had the second-fastest lap and the fastest average speeds overall while McMurray came in fourth. Neither driver has had any real success at Bristol, but their cars say that all should change this week.
Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano should be strong this week as well. Logano’s first Cup foray into the series at Bristol resulted in 34th- and 38th-place finishes last year. He looks like he’s turned the corner well based on his speeds and capturing his first career pole. Hamlin has been about as good as they come at Bristol over the past two seasons without winning, averaging a combined finish of fourth, which is tops over that span.
I wish I could talk more about the Childress cars, but they didn’t show much in practice. However, they haven’t shown much at all in practice all season and have run very well collectively on race day. Two years ago, the team dominated Bristol with Jeff Burton winning, Kevin Harvick getting two top-five finishes, and Clint Bowyer finishing third and seventh. The turnaround and results the team is experiencing are similar to 2008 when all three made the Chase. Of the three, Harvick and his great history would be the choice.
Kyle Busch swept the season last year and totals three wins at Bristol winning on both formats of the track, but he doesn’t look so good. He had a very rough couple of practices, eventually getting better during happy hour with the 21st fastest lap. Hard to say it, but he doesn’t look like a contender for a top-10 finish Sunday.
Look for Fireworks
Even though it’s a day race, there is bound to be some explosions on the track. No need to light a match either, because a few are ready for go-time and I can’t wait. Saturday morning, Brad Keselowski and Carl Edwards had to sit down with NASCAR’s bosses who basically told them, we don’t need you as much as you need us, clean it up.
On Friday, Kevin Harvick finally talked about the Edwards situation and wasn’t very nice, calling him “fake,” among other things. This is a great rivalry that I wish would materialize more. It could on Sunday.
Roberts Weekly Driver Ratings
Each week I will provide an analysis of my top rated drivers on how well they will do in the race based on the following criteria:
• Practice sessions leading up to the weekend’s Sprint Cup race
• Chassis information on what was brought to each track by each team, good or bad
• Driver tendencies at certain tracks
• Recent and overall histories for each driver at each track
• Decipher poor past results with what really happened, good car — or bad luck?
These final ratings should help assist in final betting strategies with the Las Vegas books or matchup and prop plays, as well as help in NASCAR fantasy leagues.
Roberts Top-10 Driver Ratings
By Micah Roberts
Food City 500
Bristol (Tenn.) Motor Speedway
Sunday, March 21, 2010 - 10:15 a.m. (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Qualifying Practice 2 Practice 3
1. Jimmie Johnson 8/1 4th 4th 1st 1st
Has best chance ever to win at Bristol. Same chassis used last year at Bristol that finished eighth.
2. Mark Martin 10/1 3rd 13th 8th 6th
Average finish of fourth in two Bristol races last year after missing two seasons of races there.
3. Denny Hamlin 12/1 10th 15th 15th 8th
Worst finish in last four races was sixth. Will debut new car this week; needs a good run.
4. Juan Montoya 15/1 6th 6th 2nd 2nd
Fastest average time in happy hour, same car had top-10 finishes in Michigan and Chicago
5. Joey Logano 20/1 1st 1st 5th 5th
Won his first pole ever Friday, and should be primed for a top-five run.
6. Jeff Gordon 10/1 10th 22nd 3rd 10th
Has led 2,438 career laps at Bristol with five wins; finished in top-five in two of last three Bristol races
7. Matt Kenseth 12/1 2nd 11th 17th 3rd
Two-time Bristol winner who surprisingly practiced well with fast times. Looks like the old Kenseth is back.
8. Kasey Kahne 18/1 5th 24th 6th 9th
Fast in practice; led 305 laps and finished second at Bristol in 2007. Fifth in this race last year.
9. Jamie McMurray 60/1 19th 17th 7th 4th
Very quick in practice, great average speeds. Best finish of third in 2003, no top-fives since.
10.Kevin Harvick 12/1 22nd 33rd 14th 20th
Mediocre practice, but has his best average finish of 12.3. Same car finished second at Atlanta last year.
Micah Roberts, a former race and sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. He writes for various sports publications. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@Gmail.com.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
At Bristol Motor Speedway:
History
· Groundbreaking for Bristol International Speedway, as Bristol Motor Speedway was originally known, took place in 1960. The track was an exact half-mile.
· First NASCAR Sprint Cup race was July 30, 1961.
· In the fall of 1969, the track was reshaped and remeasured to .533-miles.
· The name changed to Bristol International Raceway in 1978.
· The first night race was held in the fall of 1978.
· The surface was changed from asphalt to concrete in 1992.
· The name changed to Bristol Motor Speedway in May 1996.
· The track was resurfaced between races in 2007.
Notebook
· There have been 98 NASCAR Sprint Cup races since the first race there in 1961, two races each season.
· All races have been scheduled for 500 laps, except for both races in 1976 and the second in 1977, which were 400 laps.
· Fred Lorenzen won the first pole.
· The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was won by Jack Smith (with relief from Johnny Allen).
· There have been 42 different pole winners, led by Cale Yarborough and Mark Martin (nine). Martin swept both poles at Bristol last season.
· 37 different drivers have won, led by Darrell Waltrip (12).
· Kurt Busch and Jeff Gordon each have five wins, most among active drivers.
· The race winner has started from the pole 22 times, the most productive starting position. The last driver to win from the pole was Carl Edwards in the night race of 2008.
· 79 of 97 races have been won from a top-10 starting position, including 51 from the first four spots. But both races last season — swept by Kyle Busch — were won from a starting position outside the top 10.
· The deepest in the field that a race winner has started is 38th, by Elliott Sadler in 2001.
· Only one active driver averages a top-10 finish: Marcos Ambrose. Ambrose, who has an average finish of 6.5, has run two races at Bristol, both last season.
· Last year’s night race had a margin of victory of .098 seconds, the second-closest at Bristol since the advent of electronic scoring in May of 1993.
· Three of the last four Bristol races had a margin of victory under one second.
Bristol Motor Speedway Data
Race #: 5 of 36 (3-21-10)
Track Size: .533 miles
· Race Length: 500 laps/266.5 miles
· Banking/Corners: 26 to 30 degrees
· Banking/Straights: 4 to 9 degrees
Driver Rating at Bristol
Marcos Ambrose 108.2
Kyle Busch 105.6
Jeff Gordon 100.1
Greg Biffle 99.3
Denny Hamlin 98.9
Matt Kenseth 97.5
Tony Stewart 94.7
Kevin Harvick 93.5
Kurt Busch 91.7
Mark Martin 89.5
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2009 races (10 total) at Bristol.
Qualifying/Race Data
2009 pole winner: Mark Martin, 125.773 mph, 15.256 seconds
2009 race winner: Kyle Busch, 92.139 mph, 3-22-09)
Track qualifying record: Ryan Newman (128.709 mph, 14.908 seconds, 3-21-03)
Track race record: Charlie Glotzbach (101.074 mph, 7-11-71)
Estimated Pit Window: Every 120-130 laps, based on fuel mileage.
NASCAR in Tennessee
* There have been 159 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Tennessee.
* 97 drivers all-time in NASCAR’s three national series have their home state recorded as Tennessee.
* There have been 12 race winners from Tennessee in NASCAR’s three national series.
Odds to Win FOOD CITY 500--Adjusted after Qualifying (Las Vegas Hilton Super Book)
BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY
SUNDAY, MARCH 21, 2010
JIMMIE JOHNSON 8
MARK MARTIN 10
JEFF GORDON 8
KYLE BUSCH 8
DENNY HAMLIN 12
JUAN MONTOYA 15
TONY STEWART 15
CARL EDWARDS 12
GREG BIFFLE 25
KURT BUSCH 8
KASEY KAHNE 18
CLINT BOWYER 15
KEVIN HARVICK 12
JEFF BURTON 12
BRIAN VICKERS 100
MATT KENSETH 12
DALE EARNHARDT JR 20
JOEY LOGANO 20
RYAN NEWMAN 35
MARTIN TRUEX JR 75
DAVID REUTIMANN 50
JAMIE McMURRAY 60
DAVID RAGAN 100
BRAD KESELOWSKI 300
MARCOS AMBROSE 40
SAM HORNISH JR 300
AJ ALLMENDINGER 200
ELLIOTT SADLER 300
PAUL MENARD 200
BOBBY LABONTE 500
REGAN SMITH 500
SCOTT SPEED 500
TRAVIS KVAPIL 1000
FIELD 100
