Micah Roberts’ NASCAR Sprint Cup driver ratings — extra

When NASCAR implemented the Chase for the Championship format before the 2004 season, the organization's vision was to somehow spruce up the final races to be meaningful because it had been since 1992 that the final race had meant much in regard to crowning the champion. Between the competing football seasons and waning fan interest in the fall months, it was believed that by creating a postseason format like the other sports have it would better captivate the sports-viewing audience.

The move didn’t work as expected. There was a revised standings chart for all to follow, but other than the initial year when Kurt Busch won, the final races were almost as meaningless as the old system because the points leader still didn’t have any pressure in the last race. NASCAR envisioned a media frenzy publicizing their sport like others for their championship games, but no one gets excited for an event when the finale features a 60-point-or-higher favorite who doesn’t have to compete hard to get the crown. 
 
After six seasons of waiting for drama to unfold that never did, the 2010 NASCAR Chase for the Championship has paid back those lost years with enough drama that's sure to satisfy all NASCAR fans and, quite possibly, capture a new audience. There is one race, winner take all. A bonus of not just having two competitors, but three, battling it out, all within 46 points of each other. None of the competitors can coast around Miami-Homestead Speedway like past champions have; they have to go all out and race like … well, race like this is for the championship, something rarely seen in NASCAR.
 
Sunday’s Ford 400 finally gives the fans something to be excited about for the season finale. Not since 1992 have we seen such a close battle for the final race and most of today’s fans never gave NASCAR a second thought back then. What we're all about to witness Sunday is a drama-filled event with several gripping storylines that most have never seen before involving NASCAR on television.
 
Now we can finally equate the drama from other sports’ playoffs to NASCAR. Who wouldn’t want to see a defending four-time champion make a run when they’re now the underdog going for their fifth straight title in a one-game format. In the process, we also have a new-generation young gun as the favorite and a long shot who has a small chance at beating both of them.
 
Jimmie Johnson has become that figure that many fans like to root against just because he wins so much, much like the franchises of the New York Yankees and Dallas Cowboys or the basketball program of Duke. He doesn’t do much to irritate folks other than win. He's not brash, arrogant or cocky and rarely says a bad thing about anyone. He’s a family man who keeps to himself and goes about his business like a corporate CEO. He comes into this race as an 8-to-5 underdog at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book to win the championship.
 
Johnson will be using his third-place car from Fontana, a car that also won at Las Vegas and was runner-up to Denny Hamlin at Texas in April. This will be the first time in five seasons that he will be racing hard for the win at Homestead. He has a good average finish of 12.7 in his nine starts at Homestead, with three top-five finishes and has been the best in NASCAR the last six seasons on 1.5-mile tracks.
 
The favorite to win the title is Hamlin at minus-230, which is equivalent to being a five-point favorite in pro football. Hamlin holds a slim 15-point lead over Johnson and can clinch the title by winning, or finishing second while leading the most laps regardless of what Johnson does. It would certainly seem possible for Hamlin considering he won this race last year and is using the same car that won at Texas two weeks ago, but the deciding factor may be the pressure of the moment.
 
Yes, Hamlin won this race last year, but Hamlin wasn’t trying to win a series title against an iconic figure. He also has the baggage of trying to live up to his crew chief's comments following the Texas win that could be classified as trash-talking. It wasn’t exactly Floyd Mayweather Jr.-type of trash-talking before a fight, but it was quite unusual for NASCAR making it stand out more. Hamlin's news conferences and body language the last two weeks suggest that he may be feeling the pressure already. 
 
Then we have the lovable long shot that everyone likes to root for in sports with Kevin Harvick at 15-to-1. Harvick led in points most of the season before the Chase started and is now 46 points behind Hamlin. It's a long shot for him to win, but still very possible. Should Harvick win and lead the most laps, Hamlin would have to finish fourth or worse while Johnson finished seventh or worse in order for the long shot to cash in.     
 
Following Saturday’s practice, Hamlin would appear to have the edge on paper. Johnson seemed to regress in each session while Hamlin got better, finishing with the fourth-fastest lap in happy hour. Johnson was only able to manage the 22nd-fastest single lap and wasn’t any better in average speeds.
 
The driver who looked the worst on the stat sheet was Harvick, but following Saturday's practices he had the look of someone who was very confident. He brought a new car this week, looking to get an edge over anything they have used this season, and it looked like the move would backfire following Friday’s practice and qualifying where he finished 31st and 28th, respectively.
 
During Saturday’s practice things got a little better, especially during the final half of happy hour. Harvick was so confident with his car on the longer runs — where he didn’t lose any speed lap to lap — that he parked his car with about six minutes remaining, as if to say, “We’re all good!”
 
The best single-lap time Harvick could get in happy hour was 29th amongst the 43 drivers, but based on the way he’s run at Homestead over his career he should be in good shape. Harvick has an average finish of 2.5 in the two Car of Tomorrow races run at Homestead and is second overall in track history with an 8.4 average finish in nine starts.
 
Even though the practice times don’t suggest that he looks like a top candidate this week, his sneaky smile getting out of his car before happy hour ended suggests he has something good. Harvick always wear his emotions on his sleeves and is loud on the radio to his crew when things aren’t going well. In this situation, with the season on the line, if the 29th-fastest lap has him happy then we should expect a great finish on Sunday.
 
Team racing may come into play like seldom seen before in NASCAR. It won’t be as blatant as Formula One racing, but there are eight other drivers involved that have a direct link as teammates to the three Chase drivers. For the Hendrick team, which surprisingly has never won at Homestead, they also get the benefit of fellow Chevy drivers Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman, whom Hendrick has helped immensely the last two seasons. Team Toyota and Hamlin will get help from Michael Waltrip Racing drivers David Reutimann and Martin Truex Jr., who owe their team's success and rise in NASCAR to Joe Gibbs.
 
No one is going to allow anyone else to win the race, but there will be harder racing going on for position, making the Chase drivers work harder to make passes should they come close to their opponents' teammates. Late in the race, it could get real dicey when the precious positions mean everything to decide the eventual champion. What would normally be a relatively unimportant battle for 11th position, could be the most important one on the track late in the race and it‘s not going to come free unless it‘s one of the Chaser's teammates.
  
The top-rated driver to win this week comes from Roush-Fenway driver Carl Edwards, the 2008 Homestead winner. A Roush driver has won six of the 11 Homestead races and at one point had won five straight. Edwards was the most impressive in final practices with average speeds and single lap times. He also has a greater thirst for winning after taking Phoenix last week, ending his winless streak that extended all the way back to this race in 2008.
 
Greg Biffle won three races in a row from 2004-06 and was considered a pre-race favorite because he was bringing his favorite car that won at Pocono and led the most laps at Texas two weeks ago. However, during Friday’s practice, Biffle slapped the wall damaging his car to the point of it being irreparable and forcing the team to go with a backup car. Biffle still maintained good speeds in Saturday’s practice, but not like he would have with the other car.
    
Two candidates have legitimate shots at ending winless streaks like Edwards did last week. Jeff Gordon hasn’t won since the Texas spring race in 2009 while Jeff Burton last won at Charlotte in the fall of 2008. Each had terrific practices on Saturday in both single-lap times and average speeds. For Gordon, if he were to end his slump this week, he would also end a career slump at Homestead — the only track he has yet to win at on the tour. Incidentally, when Gordon won at Texas, it was his first win on that track after 16 attempts at it.
 
This will be Burton and Gordon’s 12th Homestead start, making them two of only five drivers to have started every race in track history. Of the five, only Tony Stewart and Bobby Labonte can claim a victory.
 
 
Roberts Weekly Driver Ratings
Each week I will provide an analysis of my top rated drivers on how well they will do in the race based on the following criteria:
• Practice sessions leading up to the weekend’s Sprint Cup race
• Chassis information on what was brought to each track by each team, good or bad
• Driver tendencies at certain tracks
• Recent and overall histories for each driver at each track
• Decipher poor past results with what really happened, good car — or bad luck?
These final ratings should help assist in final betting strategies with the Las Vegas books or match-up and prop plays, as well as help in NASCAR fantasy leagues.
 

Micah Roberts Top 10 Driver Ratings
Ford 400
Homestead-Miami Speedway, Homestead, Fla.
Sunday, Nov. 21, 2010 — 12:19 p.m. (PDT)
 
Rating   Driver                    Odds   Practice 1  Qualifying   Practice 2   Practice 3
1. Carl Edwards                   8/1          1st              2nd               7th                 6th
2008 winner with track-best 6.5 average finish; fastest average speeds in Practice 2.
2. Jeff Burton                       30/1        33rd            14th              2nd                1st       
Runner-up in 2009 race; using same car that posted top-five finishes at Atlanta and Dover.
3. Kyle Busch                       8/1          2nd            33rd               1st                17th
Career-best of eighth in 2009 race; using chassis that led final two practices at Texas.
4. Jeff Gordon                      20/1         6th             11th               3rd                 7th
Only track on tour he hasn’t won at; 9.5 average finish in 11 starts with five top-five finishes
5. Denny Hamlin                  5/1         30th             37th              6th                 4th       
Won this race in 2009 and was third two other times; using winning Texas chassis from two weeks ago.
6. Jamie McMurray             25/1          5th              3rd               8th                 5th
Terrific practice sessions using winning chassis from Charlotte; career best of third in 2008.
7. Greg Biffle                         8/1         23rd             27th              4th                 9th        
Won this race from 2004-06; great practices despite losing primary car in Friday’s practice.
8. Jimmie Johnson               4/1          3rd               6th              11th              22nd
First time since 2005 he’ll have to race to win at Homestead; using Fontana car that finished third.
9. Kevin Harvick                    7/1         31st             28th            19th               29th      
Finished series-best second and third last two years using the Car of Tomorrow; new car this week.
10. Martin Truex Jr.             40/1         9th               25th            22nd               3rd
11.8 average finish in five career starts; third-best average speeds in Practice 2.
Note: Since 1975, the first season of the current points system, only two drivers have overcome a deficit in the season finale to win the title — Richard Petty in 1979 and Alan Kulwicki in 1992.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former race and sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. He writes for multiple publications covering all sports. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@gmail.com.
 
DRIVER QUOTES
 
CARL EDWARDS ON RACING AT HOMESTEAD-MIAMI: “Ford Championship weekend has always been a huge weekend for me and Roush Fenway. We’ve got a ton of momentum right now. I feel like our 1.5-mile program is really strong, and our team is riding a huge wave from last weekend’s win in Phoenix. We can’t lose at Homestead because no matter what happens we all feel like we finished the season strong. We’re just going to go for the win and hopefully finish top four in points. That would be huge.”

KEVIN HARVICK ON WHAT BOTHERS HIM ABOUT EITHER JOHNSON OR HAMLIN: "I'll give you something. I think the thing that irks me the most probably about Denny's team is his crew chief. Jimmie, is the fact that he's probably won the last four championships. Not that that's mean or anything. It's just when a guy has won four in a row, you beat your head against the wall and wonder, "Why can't we be competitive enough, why can't the whole sport be good enough to keep somebody from winning four in a row?''
 
JIMMIE JOHNSON ON THOSE WHO QUESTION HIS PAST PERFROMANCES AT HOMESTEAD RACES: “I’m not sure why that’s even relevant. If you look at points accumulated over the course of the Chase, I think that will speak volumes as to what type of Chase took place. I know we’ve been competitive, but not as dominant as we wanted to all year long. We’ve got to go down there and race for it; there’s no doubt about it. I continue to hear that the No. 48 hasn’t had to race for it before and we’ve raced for it all Chase long."
 
DENNY HAMLIN ON WHETHER THIS WAS THE SEASON ENDING SCENARIO HE HAD ENVISIONED: “I still like the idea that we are all going to be racing for the championship on the track this weekend. It’s really good for this sport and for the fans. I hated the way our race ended last week only because we had been so strong. It was frustrating to run up front and see it go away at the end but we are still in the lead and we still think we will be very good at Homestead.”
 
HOMESTEAD-MIAMI ODDS & ENDS: FORD 400
Compiled by Mike Forde
NASCAR Media Services
 
History
·            Groundbreaking for Homestead-Miami Dade Motorsports Complex — as the track was originally named — began Aug. 24, 1993. The first race was a NASCAR Nationwide Series event on Nov. 5, 1995.
·            The original configuration was a four-turn, rectangular oval based on Indianapolis Motor Speedway's layout.
·            The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Homestead was held on Nov. 14, 1999.
·            2002 was the first season of the Championship Weekend at Homestead, with all three of NASCAR’s national series holding their season finale at the same track.

Notebook
·            Since the inception of the current points system in 1975, only two drivers have made up a points deficit in the season finale: Richard Petty in 1979 (made up two points on Darrell Waltrip) and Alan Kulwicki in 1992 (made up 30 points on Davey Allison).
·            There have been 11 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Homestead, one per season since 1999.
·            Five drivers have competed in all 11 races: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte, Elliott Sadler and Tony Stewart.
·            David Green won the first pole, in 1999.
·            Tony Stewart won the inaugural race, in 1999.
·            There have been nine different pole winners. Kurt Busch and Jimmie Johnson lead all drivers, with two.
·            There have been eight different race winners, led by Greg Biffle, with three.
·            Jack Roush has won six races, most among owners.
·            The race has been won from the pole twice: Bill Elliott (2001) and Kurt Busch (2002).
·            The race has been won from a top-10 starting position eight of 11 times.
·            Denny Hamlin won last season from the 38th starting position, the furthest back a race winner has started.
·            Three active drivers have averaged a top-10 finish: Carl Edwards (6.5), Jeff Gordon (9.5) and Kevin Harvick (8.4).
 
NASCAR in Florida
·         There have been 164 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Florida.
·         162 drivers in NASCAR’s three national series have their home state recorded as Florida.
·         There have been 10 race winners from Florida in NASCAR’s three national series:

Homestead-Miami Speedway Data
Race #: 36 of 36 (11-21-10)
Track Size: 1.5 miles
Race Length: 267 laps/400.5 miles
·     Banking/Corners: 18-20 degrees
·     Banking/Straights: 4 degrees
·     Frontstretch: 1,760 feet
·     Backstretch: 1,760 feet

Driver Rating at Homestead
Carl Edwards                111.0
Matt Kenseth                 105.3
Martin Truex Jr.             103.8
Kevin Harvick                101.1
Greg Biffle                    99.0
Jeff Gordon                  95.1
Denny Hamlin                94.7
Jimmie Johnson            92.9
Mark Martin                   91.9
Jeff Burton                   88.7
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2009 races (4 total) at Homestead.
 
Qualifying/Race Data
2009 pole winner: Jimmie Johnson (173.919 mph, 31.049 seconds)
2009 race winner: Denny Hamlin, 126.986 mph, 11-22-09)
Track qualifying record: Jamie McMurray (181.111 mph, 29.816 seconds, 11-14-03)
Track race record: Tony Stewart (140.335 mph, 11-14-99)
Pit Window: Every 50-55 laps
 
 
LAS VEGAS HILTON SUPER BOOK NASCAR ODDS TO WIN
 
FORD 400
HOMESTEAD-MIAMI SPEEDWAY
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2010
 
JIMMIE JOHNSON 4
KYLE BUSCH 8
JEFF GORDON 20
DENNY HAMLIN 5
JEFF BURTON 30
KEVIN HARVICK 7
MATT KENSETH 15
CARL EDWARDS 8
GREG BIFFLE 8
KURT BUSCH 20
MARK MARTIN 15
TONY STEWART 15
CLINT BOWYER 30
JUAN MONTOYA 30
KASEY KAHNE 50
JOEY LOGANO 25
RYAN NEWMAN 40
MARTIN TRUEX JR 40
JAMIE McMURRAY 25
DALE EARNHARDT JR 60
BRAD KESELOWSKI 200
DAVID REUTIMANN 40
ARIC ALMIROLA 300
DAVID RAGAN 60
AJ ALLMENDINGER 75
MARCOS AMBROSE 300
SAM HORNISH JR 500
ELLIOTT SADLER 300
REGAN SMITH 1000
PAUL MENARD 200
SCOTT SPEED 1000
BOBBY LABONTE 3000
TRAVIS KVAPIL 5000
FIELD 500