Steer clear of long shots; elite drivers have fared best at LVMS

In only two races a year do bettors have chances to wager on NASCAR Super Bowl-type propositions: the Daytona 500 and the annual Las Vegas race. The only reason the other 34 races don’t have as many props is because of supply and demand.

It takes a lot of work for the books to go through all the trends and offer a proper number, and their time spent is justified only by betting volume. With the Daytona 500, visitors shuffling in and out of town create a large handle. For the Vegas race, the sports books have only one week of visitors, but almost all of them are here for one reason: NASCAR. And after 15 years of practice, these regular visitors have become sharp at the betting windows.

However, there also are plenty of first-timers and those who don’t understand how to bet the race. For them, here are a few tips.

The best piece of betting advice on the NASCAR race is to have a game plan. You should have two plans: one before the cars hit the track on Friday and the other formulated after the final practice has been completed on Saturday. The plan before the practices should be based on any preconceived notions or inklings you might have had based on the expected performance of the new Gen-6 car.

We got a taste of what’s in store for us last week at Phoenix, and it looked like the cream rose to the top. The elite teams might be even more elite for a few weeks until the others catch up. With that in mind, you can bet accordingly on a few drivers.

For instance, Jimmie Johnson has won four times in Las Vegas. He was runner-up last year and has a track-best 9.8 average finish in 11 starts. He also has the luxury of driving for one of the elite teams — Hendrick Motorsports — which was way ahead of the game the last time there was a major car design change, in 2007 with the Car of Tomorrow. He has a good chance to go “under” the posted finish position total. The Aliante sports book near the Las Vegas Motor Speedway has posted Johnson’s finish position at 6½ and odds to win at 6-1.

That same theory can apply to a driver such as Matt Kenseth, who is a two-time winner in Las Vegas and might be in the perfect situation this week with an elite team, Joe Gibbs, on the type of track on which he always has excelled. You also have to factor in that Kenseth is with a new car owner, new crew, new spotter and new manufacturer, but he still seems to have more upside this week. Kenseth’s finish position has been posted at 7½ and odds to win at 12-1.

On the other side, you can bet against some drivers to do poorly. We saw Danica Patrick finish eighth at Daytona when she just had to follow the leader, but she had a more difficult time at Phoenix last week when she had to put more of her skills into the racing. Many bettors likely will bet Danica to do well, but there is more value in betting against her in most props offered. Her finish position total has been posted at 25½, a good number, but maybe a little light.

You should take a shot with at least three drivers to win the race before Friday’s practice and qualifying. The odds will be greatly influenced and moved on the basis of how each driver runs Friday. A good strategy is taking one of the favorites, a midrange shot and maybe a driver at 25-1 or so. These drivers all should fall into that category of drivers or teams that might have the ability to show up. Martin Truex Jr. has a shot with a quality Michael Waltrip Racing car, while the likes of Bobby Labonte and Casey Mears don’t.

It’s shocking how many people take a chance with the drivers at large odds. Everyone wants to win big by betting a little, but at some point logic and facts have to come into the betting equation.

Long shots of 100-1 or larger have paid out before in NASCAR races, such as Trevor Bayne at Daytona or Elliott Sadler at Bristol. But not at 1½-mile tracks. And especially not at Las Vegas. Only elite drivers from elite teams win at Las Vegas. Kenseth paying out at 25-1 in 2003 is the longest shot to ever win in Las Vegas.

Best advice: Don’t give your $5 or $10 bets away to the sports books on the long-shot drivers. It might look nice on the ticket that shows a $5 bet winning $500 if Labonte wins at 100-1, but it simply becomes a souvenir after the race. The smarter way to go is take that same $5 and have a legitimate shot at turning it into $30 on Jimmie Johnson at 6-1 odds. It’s not as attractive for most of the visitors, but it’s a more sound strategy.

The second part of the betting equation is after the final practices have been run on Saturday. Did anything happen to make you feel less confident about your initial wagers? Now is your chance to find one or two more drivers who looked good in practice to offset the changes of your initial opinion.

The two final practices on Saturday are the most important part of the betting equation, so balance your betting bankroll to allow for a few dollars and hit the sports books again on Saturday night or Sunday morning.

Be sure to check Sunday’s paper, where we’ll have driver ratings based on who looked the best in Saturday’s practices.

Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts’ insights on the race, go to The Linemakers on Sporting News or follow on Twitter: MicahRoberts7.