Phoenix, Richmond traditionally best guides to predict New Hampshire winner
The best approach in dissecting the top candidates to win at New Hampshire on Sunday is to follow a trend that has been pretty strong since the track first opened for NASCAR Sprint Cup racing in 1993 — and that’s to follow what happened at Phoenix and Richmond. Although the tracks are vastly different in configuration, the one constant among them is that they are all a mile or less with relatively flat banking.
The trend and correlation between the three facilities is so strong, likely because, it’s the crew chiefs who have kept it going. Any team that has any kind of success on any of the three tracks generally brings the identical chassis and setup for the other.
This process has led to several multiple winners between the three tracks on a given year. Last year, it was Mark Martin taking wins at both Phoenix and Richmond. The two previous years it was Jimmie Johnson, and before him, the likes of Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Burton were all multiwinners in a given season at the three combined tracks.
If just looking at what happened this year during April’s Phoenix and May’s Richmond races, it’s easy to see just how clear the correlation is with only two samplings. Of the top-10 finishers at Phoenix, six of the drivers finished in the top-10 again three weeks later at Richmond, including both winners, Ryan Newman and Kyle Busch.
When looking at the practice times for this week's New Hampshire race and noticing what chassis those fast teams brought, it’s not irrational to believe that history will repeat itself.
At the top of the list this week is Jimmie Johnson, who is once again hitting his stride. He’s expecting to be a father any day now and even had a backup driver, Aric Almirola, take a few laps in his car during the early practice Saturday in case he has to leave Sunday. No one was better than Johnson during practice. He had the fastest single lap and average speeds for Saturday’s combined sessions. At Phoenix this year, he led the most laps and finished third, finishing 10th at Richmond. He will be using the same chassis on Sunday that he drove in those two races.
Kyle Busch won at Richmond this year and has had some success at New Hampshire, which includes winning in 2006. Busch looks to be the driver to give Johnson the most fits this week because of how close he has been to Johnson’s times during Saturday’s practice.
Jeff Gordon has done just about everything this year except win. He finished runner-up at both Phoenix and Richmond, and to boot, he finished as runner-up in this race last season. He is a three-time winner at New Hampshire but hasn’t won there since 1998. He had a fine practice session Saturday ending with the fourth-fastest lap during happy hour, and the only thing that may keep him from another quality finish, or win, is the payback that Martin Truex Jr. promised following Gordon punting him last week at Sonoma.
Ryan Newman is using the same chassis that he beat out Jeff Gordon with at Phoenix. Newman also finished eighth at Richmond and comes to New Hampshire with two career wins at the track. During practice, Newman was strong both Friday and the early session Saturday but tailed off a bit during happy hour. It’s likely the final times were more a testament to the team just trying different long-run strategies, because this car and team have proven to be very good on these type of tracks and just might be able to steal another one.
Jeff Burton is New Hampshire’s all-time leader in wins with four. As if his pedigree isn’t good enough on merit, his practice times and the chassis he brought seal the deal. Burton is a real contender this week. He is using the same car that finished fourth at Richmond in May and finished runner-up at Phoenix last fall. During happy hour, Burton laid down the second-fastest lap.
Tony Stewart has been awful at this type of track this season. He finished 23rd at both Phoenix and Richmond after being one of the favorites in each race last season. This is the type of track that got the new Stewart-Haas company rolling in 2009, showing they were a player to be respected and paid attention to as they rolled into the final 10-race Chase for the Championship and the one to stop Johnson from winning his fourth straight title.
After looking at practice times, Stewart looks vastly improved from his 2010 trends on the flat midranged tracks. Stewart was fifth-fastest during happy hour and began the practice sessions Friday with a strong fourth-fastest time while in race trim. The best news is that he brought a chassis this week that was thoroughly tested and reset at the Milwaukee Mile’s flat configuration in preparation specifically for this race. The team knows this is an important race, not only to make the chase, but to advance further as the next time they roll into town, it’ll be the first race of the Chase for the Championship.
Martin Truex Jr. hails from the Northeast and has always run better than usual at New Hampshire. He’s got an agenda with Jeff Gordon this week that he’ll either have to live up to his bold claims following Sonoma last week or pack it in and say he’s looking at the bigger picture. By the way Gordon has pleaded for forgiveness, it’s likely that Truex Jr. will go out and race his own race to not look like the villain in getting revenge with someone so apologetic.
It’s a good thing, too, because Truex Jr. looks pretty good on his own this week. He had the second-fastest average times during the first practice session Saturday and finished strong with the sixth-fastest single lap during happy hour.
Denny Hamlin didn’t have any practice session that gave insight into him possibly doing well this week, but what he does have is just a natural ability to get after it on flat tracks. It doesn’t matter whether it's Pocono, Martinsville, Phoenix, Richmond, or New Hampshire, Hamlin can wheel the heck out of his car with no banking and he’s going to need that Sunday. This week, he’s driving the same chassis that finished third at Phoenix last fall.
Juan Pablo Montoya has been one of the more consistent drivers on these type of flat tracks over the last year. He finished fifth at Phoenix and sixth at Richmond and is using the same chassis that finished third in the last race run at New Hampshire. He came out on fire Friday during practice in both race and qualifying trim, gaining the top slot in qualifying, but stalled a bit during Saturday’s practice. He’s been a tough driver to gauge this season, but not at these tracks. Look for a strong top-10 finish this week.
Mark Martin comes in as the last recipient to win multiple times on the combined flat tracks and had a good effort in practice to justify any lean his way, despite not having the same type of breakout resurgence year he had last season. He practiced well enough on Friday and Saturday to give an inclination that he can at least duplicate what he did the last time rolling out in the car he’s using this week, which was a fourth-place finish at Phoenix.
Carl Edwards is not a candidate to win this week, but he will be someone to contend with for a top-10 position based on what he did at Phoenix and Richmond this season. His practice times mirror what he did there and that shouldn’t be surprising since he’s using the car that finished seventh at Phoenix. Edwards also managed a fifth-place run at Richmond. If needing a driver to get points in fantasy NASCAR or betting matchups, there won’t be more than eight drivers you should bet against Edwards.
Roberts Weekly Driver Ratings
Each week I will provide an analysis of my top rated drivers on how well they will do in the race based on the following criteria:
• Practice sessions leading up to the weekend’s Sprint Cup race
• Chassis information on what was brought to each track by each team, good or bad
• Driver tendencies at certain tracks
• Recent and overall histories for each driver at each track
• Decipher poor past results with what really happened, good car -- or bad luck?
These final ratings should help assist in final betting strategies with the Las Vegas books or match-up and prop plays, as well as help in NASCAR fantasy leagues.
Micah Roberts Top 10 Driver Ratings
Lenox Industrial Tools 301
New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Sunday, June 27 - 10:16 a.m. (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Qualifying Practice 2 Practice 3
1. Jimmie Johnson 9/2 2nd 10th 1st 1st
Using 10th-place Richmond chassis; best average speeds during Saturday practices.
2. Kyle Busch 7/1 8th 22nd 2nd 3rd
Won 2005 NHMS race; won at Richmond, a track that requires similar setup.
3. Jeff Gordon 7/1 6th 16th 7th 4th
Three-time NHMS winner; average finish of 11.4. Runner-up at Richmond and Phoenix.
4. Ryan Newman 35/1 5th 5th 3rd 25th
Using same chassis that won at Phoenix; two-time winner at NHMS with average finish of 13.8.
5. Jeff Burton 15/1 9th 17th 9th 2nd
All-time track leader with four wins. Using same chassis that finished fourth at Richmond.
6. Kurt Busch 12/1 3rd 3rd 8th 9th
Three-time NHMS winner with last coming in 2008. Using Fontana chassis this week.
7. Juan Pablo Montoya 20/1 1st 1st 12th 8th
Using third-place chassis from 2009 NHMS fall race. Finished fifth at Phoenix and sixth at Richmond.
8. Tony Stewart 15/1 4th 25th 15th 5th
Had one of his best practices of the year. Using chassis that recently tested well at flat Milwaukee Mile.
9. Clint Bowyer 15/1 12th 9th 5th 10th
Won 2007 NHMS race; using seventh-place Charlotte chassis this week. Good flat-track driver.
10. Mark Martin 20/1 7th 4th 11th 22nd
Won the fall NHMS race last year; average finish of 10.7. Using fourth-place Phoenix chassis
Note: New Hampshire’s flat one-mile layout requires a similar set-up to Phoenix and Richmond.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former race and sports director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. He writes for multiple publications covering all sports. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@Gmail.com.
For more Roberts insight on the New Hampshire race, log onto LVRJ.com/Motorsports.
DRIVER QUOTES
JEFF GORDON ON RACING AT SONOMA LAST WEEK: "Well, I think the double-file restarts have added that, especially on short tracks and road courses, have brought the intensity level up. I think what you see, and we saw this at Martinsville, and we saw it at Infineon, is people in different pit strategies so you've got guys on older tires versus guys on newer tires. And so the guys on older tires don't have the grip, guys on new tires don't have the patience, and so those two mixtures plus the double-file restart really makes it wild. And the later in the race that you get, and you get cautions, the more intense it's going to be. The thing with Martin (Truex Jr.), I don't have any excuses. Yeah, I was racing with Juan Pablo (Montoya) hard, but I just made a mistake there. But the other instances were just really hard racing and just because of that intensity you have to push, push, push and when you push like that and you're three-wide and guys are sliding off the track and pushing you off the track and going three-wide on a road course, a lot is going to happen. There wasn't a corner of my car left that didn't have damage."
MARTIN TRUEX JR ON LAST WEEKS INCIDENT AT SONOMA: "It’s very frustrating that we put so much effort in what we do and it takes one guy’s mistake to screw it up for you. It is really going to hurt our chances to make The Chase. The 42nd-place finish is going to kill us. The NAPA team continues to do a great job. Our cars are running fast. It was by far the best car I have ever driven at Infineon Raceway. We had a great run going. I really thought it was going to be a good day for us. It just stinks when someone screws it up for you. I wish in our situation that things were different. I wish that we were in a position where what happened to us on Sunday wouldn’t cost us a chance to make the Chase. All we can do is go back to work and keep working hard. Hopefully this kind of stuff doesn’t happen again. We’ve had a couple of bad weeks. We didn’t run as well as we should have at Charlotte. We got in the late-race wreck at Pocono. At Michigan we didn’t run as well as we should have. This past weekend we were really good and were wrecked. It just seems like when we run well, we still do not get the finishes. That’s what we are missing right now. We still need to work on that."
JUAN PABLO MONTOYA ON WINNING THE POLE AND RACING THIS WEEK AT NEW HAMPSHIRE: "We are looking to finish as high as we can, but we have to finish. We can’t afford to get DNFs. We have really fast race cars every week. We’ve been involved in a lot of wrecks that weren’t my fault. It is part of what racing is. The team is working really hard and it is nice to be up front."
KYLE BUSCH ON THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PHOENIX AND NEW HAMPSHIRE: “New Hampshire is a fun track for me, as a driver, even though it was a tough year there last year. It’s flat like Phoenix and Milwaukee, but it’s a little bit tricky. In order to do well there, you need a car that works on all the different kinds of asphalt the tracks seem to be putting down. You need a car that has a lot of side bite in the rear and front grip to turn easier. At New Hampshire, it seems like I’ve always been loose into the corner and tight in the center, which is hard to fix, sometimes. I think the team that can fix that the best will have the best car.”
RYAN NEWMAN ON WINNING HIS FIRST CAREER RACE AT NEW HAMPSHIRE, ALBEIT, RAIN SHORTENDED: “We had won the All-Star Race at Charlotte in May that year. I was a rookie, so that was a big deal, but we were still looking for our first point-paying win. We finally got it at New Hampshire in September, and it was a rain-shortened race. That’s one part of racing. They never put it (rain-shortened) on the trophy. They do put it in the record books, but the trophy is what we take home. You won the race. It doesn’t say how many laps it was. It doesn’t say who finished second. It just says that you were the best on that day. There are different ways to win a race, but there are a few things that help you get that first win. You’ve got to be in the right place at the right time. You’ve got to use strategy. You’ve got to have a fast racecar. You’ve got to do all those things right, or close to right.”
NEW HAMPSHIRE ODDS & ENDS: LENOX INDUSTRIAL TOOLS 301
History
· Groundbreaking for New Hampshire International Speedway, as New Hampshire Motor Speedway was originally named, was Aug. 13, 1989.
· The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was on July 11, 1993.
· Renamed New Hampshire Motor Speedway in 2008.
Notebook
· There have been 30 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway; one per year from 1993 through 1996 and two per year since.
· Four drivers have competed in all 30 races: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte and Joe Nemechek.
· Mark Martin won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup pole.
· Rusty Wallace won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race.
· There have been 16 different pole winners, led by Ryan Newman (four).
· 20 different drivers have won, led by Jeff Burton (four).
· Last season, Joey Logano became the all-time youngest NASCAR Sprint Cup race winner at 19 years, one month and four days.
· Jimmie Johnson (2003) and Kurt Busch (2004) are the only drivers that have posted season sweeps. Those are also the only back-to-back winners.
· Roush Fenway Racing and Hendrick Motorsports have each won seven races, more than any other organization.
· The deepest in the field that a New Hampshire race winner started was 38th, by Jeff Burton in 1999.
· There have been four winners who started from the pole. The last race winner to win from the pole was Clint Bowyer in 2007. He scored a perfect Driver Rating of 150.0 that event.
· There have been 10 consecutive different race winners.
· Jeff Burton led all 300 laps raced in the 2000 fall race.
· Five drivers got there first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series win at New Hampshire: Joe Nemechek (1999), Robby Gordon (2001),Ryan Newman (2002), Clint Bowyer (2007) and Joey Logano (2009).
NASCAR in New Hampshire
· There have been 30 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in New Hampshire, all at NHMS.
· 13 drivers in NASCAR’s three national series (all-time) are listed as New Hampshire natives.
· There has been one race winner from New Hampshire in NASCAR’s three national series: Jamie Aube. Aube, from Manchester, won a NASCAR Nationwide Series race at Oxford Plains Speedway in 1987.
New Hampshire Motor Speedway Data
Race #: 17 of 36 (6-27-10)
Track Size: 1.058 miles
Race Length: 317.4 miles (300 laps)
Banking/Corners: Variable at 2 & 7 degrees
Banking/Straights: 1 degree
Driver Rating at New Hampshire
Tony Stewart 114.9
Jeff Gordon 108.0
Jimmie Johnson 106.3
Denny Hamlin 102.7
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 100.7
Mark Martin 98.0
Kevin Harvick 93.2
Kurt Busch 91.6
Jeff Burton 91.5
Ryan Newman 90.6
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2009 races (10 total) at New Hampshire.
Qualifying/Race Data
2009 pole winner: None (inclement weather)
2009 race winner: Joey Logano, 97.497 mph, 6-28-09)
Track qualifying record: Juan Pablo Montoya (133.431 mph, 28.545 sec., 9-20-09)
Track race record: Jeff Burton (117.134 mph, 7-13-97)
Estimated Pit Window: 70-78 laps
NASCAR ODDS TO WIN AT THE LAS VEGAS HILTON SUPER BOOK
LENOX INDUSTRIAL TOOLS 301
NEW HAMPSHIRE MOTOR SPEEDWAY
SUNDAY, JUNE 27, 2010
JIMMIE JOHNSON 9-2
KYLE BUSCH 7
JEFF GORDON 7
DENNY HAMLIN 9-2
JEFF BURTON 15
KEVIN HARVICK 15
MATT KENSETH 25
CARL EDWARDS 25
GREG BIFFLE 25
KURT BUSCH 12
MARK MARTIN 20
TONY STEWART 15
CLINT BOWYER 15
JUAN MONTOYA 20
KASEY KAHNE 25
JOEY LOGANO 25
RYAN NEWMAN 35
MARTIN TRUEX JR 25
JAMIE McMURRAY 30
DALE EARNHARDT JR 30
BRAD KESELOWSKI 60
DAVID REUTIMANN 50
REED SORENSON 100
DAVID RAGAN 200
AJ ALLMENDINGER 100
MARCOS AMBROSE 200
SAM HORNISH JR 300
ELLIOTT SADLER 300
REGAN SMITH 500
PAUL MENARD 500
SCOTT SPEED 500
DAVID GILLILAND 2000
TRAVIS KVAPIL 2000
FIELD 100
