Talladega Superspeedway an enigma

No one can dominate Talladega Superspeedway over a number of races like some drivers do at certain tracks around the NASCAR Sprint Cup circuit. The nasty beast of a 2.66-mile, 33-degree-banked track always seems to be the one in the battle that eventually conquers.

We’ve seen our fair share of drivers over recent years have success in spurts at Talladega, but nothing ever really sustained. The combination of three-wide — and sometimes four-wide — racing at 200 mph for 188 laps makes it hard enough to just finish the race let alone think about winning. In just about every instance, “The Big One” occurs where 10 to 15 cars get involved in what would be a minor accident at any other track but turns out to resemble dominoes falling in line at Talladega.

A few drivers have been able to run the gauntlet and succeed by winning, while some have done the near impossible by accumulating amazing streaks.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has won five times at Talladega and at one point, from 2001-03, won four in a row. He won again in 2004, but that would be his last victory. After that, the Talladega law of averages caught up with him and he paid the price by going eight straight races without a top-five finish. It wasn’t until this race last season that Earnhardt was able to tip the scales in his favor again just by cracking the top-five with a second-place finish.

Jeff Gordon has won six times over his great career at Talladega. His team at Hendrick Motorsports went on a restrictor plate tear at Daytona and Talladega from 2004-07. During that time, Gordon won four of his six Talladega races, with his teammates winning two others. Following Gordon’s sweep of the 2007 season, he too has had to pay the fee for having success and hasn‘t finished better than 19th in any of the four races there since.

The only driver to have any consistent luck at Talladega was the late, great Dale Earnhardt Sr., who won 10 times at Talladega during all stages of his career, including his last career win.

In recent history, it appears that success is determined by how much a team puts into the restrictor plate program. Even though the Daytona 500 has the largest purse of the season, it’s still only a possible 195 points on the season among 36 races. There are only four plate races, so just how important is it among the overall scheme of things?

Jack Roush’s goal was to win a championship and he tried hard to maximize his efforts and focus on the types of tracks that could relate to many more than just four races. The strategy was sound as Mark Martin finished second in points four times. Finally, in 2002, Matt Kenseth won the title and then Kurt Busch won in 2004, all with the same formula.

When 2009 came around, the Roush stable suddenly had several cars capable of winning plate races and Kenseth gave Roush his first Daytona 500 win. Then Jamie McMurray came along and won the fall race at Talladega, giving Roush two wins in four chances in the plate races, something he had never done before.

What’s ironic is that Roush only won one other race in 2009, a year after getting nine wins out of Carl Edwards and two more from Greg Biffle. Both Biffle and Edwards went winless in 2009, but competed well in all plate races.

So here we are in 2010 with no clear-cut favorite by manufacturer, team, driver, or engine builder, and the Las Vegas odds reflect it. The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book has no driver listed under 10-to-1 odds this week. Just to show how different that is, if we go back to 2002, Earnhardt Jr. was offered at 5-to-2 odds at Talladega.

If we look back at last season, we can see why the odds might now be so high for everyone at Talladega because Brad Keslowski won as a 100-to-1 long shot while McMurray came in at 35 to 1.

The strategy for this week is a tough one, which is why the Las Vegas sports books do so little action with this race. Even though it is one of the more popular races of the season with tickets counts, the size of the wagers are much smaller than in most races. The volatile nature of the track takes most of the usual handicapping out of betting Talladega and Daytona races.

On a normal week, most NASCAR bettors go through all the past trends of each driver and have a good idea of who to key on. After chassis selections are announced, it further enhances who should be good at a particular track. Once the final practices have been run, everything becomes much clearer and those who wager have a great opinion on the race based on all the data and they then put their money down on it accordingly.

At Talladega, the only information that is useful is a drivers' recent history at restrictor-plate races. The practice times are meaningless because they are all skewed by drivers practicing in packs while drafting in different situations. The chassis that a team brings is almost as irrelevant at Talladega because most of the time past wrecks dilute much of the true value in finishing position.

However, it’s Talladega! You still have to bet the race. You’re going to watch it just like every other household in America watching sports on a Sunday, so you might as well have a few dollars on it.

Let’s look at the Busch Brothers and Earnhardt Jr. to do very well this week. You have to love the way Kyle Busch and his team are finally working well together. They have looked great the last three races despite not having very good cars. The third-place finish at Texas last week by Kyle was done in a car that was maybe good enough to make the top-15, but was put in position to contend for the win. Because of the team's momentum, and Kyle's natural ability to run well in plate races, the younger Busch brother is the driver to look at this week.

Older brother Kurt Busch still remains the best driver to have never won a plate race. He’s finished third on four occasions at Talladega and has a great average finish, but hasn’t been in the right train caravan down the stretch to make it happen.

Earnhardt Jr.’s recent success in the plate races is what indicates that this could be his time. His dramatic second-place finish at Daytona this season was a sufficient indicator to believe that his 65-race winless streak and restrictor-plate drought could all come to a resounding end this week. He’s paid his price for so much early success and even the beast of Talladega can show some mercy, just for the sake of him maybe shaving his beard.
 

Driver Quotes

Dale Earnhardt Jr. on what he can expect coming into Talladega:
"When you show up, whatever you unload, that's what you are going to have all weekend. There's not a lot that you can do to the car to improve it. NASCAR has a lot of rules with the cars at Talladega and Daytona, where you can't do a lot of changes in the back of the car to get the car to handle good. However it unloads is about as fast as it is going to get. Hopefully we brought a bullet."

Kevin Harvick on the differences between the new spoiler and the wing at Talladega:
"The cars themselves didn't really change much as far as how they drive in the draft. The biggest change is your ability to be able to see out in front of you. That has improved significantly. With the wing it was hard to see out in front of the car directly in front of you. But now with the spoiler, it definitely improves your vision which helps tremendously in the draft."

Carl Edwards on racing at Talladega and the new spoiler:
"Obviously a year ago the finish was a little more exciting than I would have liked, but we were in a position to win. We’re going to go back with points in mind considering the trouble we had in Atlanta and Texas, and hopefully we can come out of Talladega in one piece. I’d like to have an opportunity to win again like we did a year ago. I didn’t get to take part in the test, but from what I’ve heard I believe the spoiler will make it a little different race. The cars will be able to close a little bit more, and maybe make some moves we wouldn’t have been able to make with the wing."

Jimmie Johnson on making his 300th career start at Talladega this weekend:
"I can't believe it'll be my 300th start this weekend. It doesn't seem like that long ago that I was climbing in a Cup car for the first time. It's been a pretty amazing ride so far and I still can't believe I get to drive racecars for a living. It's pretty cool. I'm also very proud of my team and what we've done together and also what I've accomplished as a driver. We've had a lot of pretty cool stuff happen to us in 300 starts. I'm looking forward to what's ahead for this team. I know we have a lot of racing left in us."

Roberts Weekly Driver Ratings
Each week I will provide an analysis of my top rated drivers on how well they will do in the race based on the following criteria:
• Practice sessions leading up to the weekend’s Sprint Cup race
• Chassis information on what was brought to each track by each team, good or bad
• Driver tendencies at certain tracks
• Recent and overall histories for each driver at each track
• Decipher poor past results with what really happened, good car — or bad luck?
These final ratings should help assist in final betting strategies with the Las Vegas books or match-up and prop plays, as well as help in NASCAR fantasy leagues.

Micah Roberts' Sprint Cup Driver Ratings
Aaron’s 499
Talladega Superspeedway, Talladega, Ala.
Coverage begins at 9 a.m. Sunday on Fox (5)

Two career restrictor plate wins; won at Talladega in spring 2008. Team has current momentum.

Five career Talladega wins, with the last coming in 2004. Second-place in this race last year.

Four third-place finishes and career average finish of 13.8 at Talladega. No career plate wins.

Bringing chassis that won Bud Shootout; 16.3 career average finish at Talladega with no wins.

Finished second six times before winning in fall 2008 at Talladega. Four plate wins.

Three of four career wins have come in plate races. Won fall Talladega race last year.

Part of Roush Racing team that won two of four plate races in 2009. Using Daytona chassis.

Six career wins at Talladega; last being in 2007 (swept the season). Twelve career plate wins.

His best statistical track; ninth and third in 2009. Part of great plate program at Joe Gibbs Racing.

Won two of last three races on 2010 season; best finish of third-place in spring of 2008.

Only two scheduled practice sessions Friday; no qualifying Saturday.
* Starting position set by points
** Daytona 500 results from February 14 (the only other restrictor plate race run in 2010)

Odds courtesy of Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.

Micah Roberts, a former sports director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. He writes for various sports publications. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7 @ Gmail.com.

Aaron's 499 Odds and Ends

NASCAR Media Services

At Talladega Superspeedway:
History
• Construction began on what was then known as the Alabama International Motor Speedway on May 23, 1968.
• The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held on Sept. 14, 1969.
• The name changed to Talladega Superspeedway in 1989.
• Fourth repaving completed on Sept. 19, 2006.

Notebook
• There have been 81 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Talladega Superspeedway since the track opened in 1969; two a year every year except the inaugural season, which had just one.
• Richard Brickhouse won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race.
• Bobby Isaac won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup pole in September 1969. Isaac won the first three poles there.
• Thirty-five different drivers have won poles. Juan Pablo Montoya won the pole for last season’s spring race, his first career pole.
• Bill Elliott leads all drivers with eight poles.
• Thirty-nine different drivers have posted victories, led by Dale Earnhardt Sr. (10). Eighteen drivers have won more than once. Brad Keselowski became a first-time NASCAR Sprint Cup winner last season.
• Jeff Gordon leads all other active drivers in victories, with six.
• Hendrick Motorsports has won 10 races, more than any other organization. Richard Childress Racing, with nine wins, can match that mark this weekend.
• Thirty-one of 81 races have been won from a top-two starting position, including 13 from the pole; 23 have been won from a starting position outside the top 10. The most recent driver to win from the pole was Jeff Gordon in 2007 (spring).
• The furthest back in the field a race winner started was 36th, by Jeff Gordon in 2000.
• Mark Martin’s pace in the 1997 spring race set an all-time NASCAR Sprint Cup record for the fastest race ever. He won the caution-free race with an average speed of 188.354 mph and covered the 500-mile distance in two hours, 39 minutes and 18 seconds.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. had four consecutive victories (October 2001 through April 2003), the most ever by a driver there. Buddy Baker (three – May 1975 through May 1976) is the only other driver to win more than two consecutive races there.
• Since the inception of electronic scoring in 1993, every race that has ended under green has had a margin of victory under half a second.

NASCAR in Alabama
• There have been 100 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Alabama.
• Sixty-five drivers in NASCAR’s three national series (all-time) have their home state recorded as Alabama.
• There have been seven race winners from Alabama in NASCAR’s three national series:

Talladega Superspeedway Data
Race #: 9 of 36 (4-25-10)
Track Size: 2.66 miles
• Banking/Corners: 33 degrees
• Banking/Frontstretch: 16.5 degrees
• Banking/Backstretch: 2 degrees
• Frontstretch: 4,300 feet
• Backstretch: 4,000 feet

Driver Rating at Talladega

Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2009 races (10 total) at Talladega.
* - Keselowski and Logano have each run two Talladega races.

Qualifying/Race Data
2009 pole winner: Juan Pablo Montoya (188.171 mph, 50.890 seconds)
2009 race winner: Brad Keselowski, 147.565 mph, 4-26-09)
Track qualifying record: Bill Elliott (212.809 mph, 44.998 seconds, 4-30-87)
Track race record: Mark Martin (188.354 mph, 5-10-97)
Estimated Pit Window: Every 34-36 laps, based on fuel mileage

NASCAR Odds From Las Vegas Hilton Super Book
Odds to win Aaron's 499
Talladega Superspeedway
Sunday, April 25, 2010