Nittany Lions one of several upset specials

It might be true that numbers don't lie, but they don't always tell the whole story, either. Penn State quarterback Anthony Morelli could be a prime example of that.

In his search for college football teams that oddsmakers might rate surprisingly strong and underrated this season, Northcoast Sports handicapper Phil Steele looked inside the numbers on Morelli and made a case for the Nittany Lions.

"If you told me Penn State was playing in the national title game this season, it wouldn't surprise me at all," Steele said. "This is a team nobody is talking about now."

Steele said Morelli, a 6-foot-4-inch senior with a high-powered rifle for a right arm, has the potential to make the Nittany Lions a hot topic.

Morelli put up relatively mediocre numbers last season, completing 54 percent of his passes for 2,424 yards with 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He ranked 89th in the nation in pass efficiency.

But the key to the equation for Steele was that Penn State finished 9-4 and all of the losses were to ranked teams -- Notre Dame, Ohio State and Wisconsin on the road and Michigan at home.

Morelli and the Nittany Lions get Notre Dame, Ohio State and Wisconsin at home this season, a scheduling shift that could make all the difference.

"Morelli's getting most of those big games at home, and he should be much more productive," Steele said.

Steele said Penn State could be favored in 11 of 12 games, and its Sept. 22 game at Michigan could determine the Big Ten champion.

The Nittany Lions, 11-1 straight up under coach Joe Paterno in 2005, are 8-4-1 against the spread at home the past two seasons.

The value of a playmaking quarterback is a starting point in singling out sleeper teams. Steele plans to post a complete list of QBs to watch on his Web site -- philsteele.com -- next week. Morelli is high on Steele's chart, as is Florida State's Drew Weatherford, Fresno State's Tom Brandstater, Georgia's Matthew Stafford and Illinois' Juice Williams.

With the season one week away, it's no secret Southern California coach Pete Carroll has the nation's No. 1 team. Steele offers bettors some not-so-obvious teams that oddsmakers might be overlooking:

• Florida State -- Coach Bobby Bowden had only nine scholarship seniors last year, and the Seminoles went 7-6. But now he has 15 returning starters after no players left early for the NFL.

Steele praised the staff changes that Bowden made. Offensive coordinator Jeff Bowden stepped down and was replaced by Jimbo Fisher from Louisiana State, and former North Carolina State coach Chuck Amato is the new linebackers coach.

Weatherford looked lost in Jeff Bowden's offense and passed for 12 touchdowns with 11 interceptions.

"I think Jimbo Fisher is going to have amazing success with Weatherford," Steele said. "Florida State is going to surprise quite a few folks and become a possible national title contender."

• Illinois -- The Fighting Illini return Williams, a dual-threat sophomore quarterback, and nine defensive starters.

"I've been studying college football a long time, and I can't recall a 2-10 team that outgained opponents by 36 yards per game," said Steele, who is eyeing a potential upset when Illinois hosts Wisconsin on Oct. 6.

• Memphis -- In last season's finale, the Tigers routed Texas-El Paso 38-19 on the road. They finished 2-10 but return 16 starters, including senior quarterback Martin Hankins.

"I think Memphis has a vastly improved offense and could surprise Mississippi in the season opener (Sept. 1)," Steele said.

• South Florida -- The schedule sets up well for the Bulls, who host West Virginia and Louisville. They upset the Mountaineers 24-19 as 21-point road underdogs last year.

"They might have the fastest defense in the Big East," Steele said of South Florida, which returns seven defensive starters and nine offensive starters, including quarterback Matt Grothe, from a 9-4 team.