No quick start for Broncos

Maybe the most surprising story of last season's first half was the emergence of the Denver Broncos, who rolled to a 6-0 start behind the leadership of new coach Josh McDaniels.

After the Broncos opened with a miracle victory at Cincinnati, they continued to buck the odds and pull upsets. It appeared McDaniels had a magic touch similar to his mentor, New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick. But Denver faded fast and its season ended in disappointment at 8-8.

Same as a year ago, not much is expected of the Broncos.

The difference is Denver won't work any miracles in today's season opener, according to Micah Roberts of VegasInsider.com. Roberts advises going with the Jacksonville Jaguars as 2½- to 3-point home favorites over the Broncos.

Kyle Orton might give Denver a slight edge at quarterback, but too many other factors are working for the favorite.

"While Orton has never looked better in his pro career than he did during the preseason, the Jaguars are the play just because the Broncos must travel to the Eastern time zone," said Roberts, a former sports book director.

"History says Denver doesn't play well when going east. Last year, the Broncos played five times in the East, and if not for the freak Brandon Stokley touchdown catch in the last minute at Cincinnati, they would have lost all five."

Losing outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil, last year's NFL leader in sacks with 17, leaves Denver extremely short-handed and forces veteran defensive backs Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins to try to do even more.

"The 3-4 scheme the Broncos run is now much worse off than last season's surprise squad," Roberts said.

The Jaguars' David Garrard, whom Roberts called "an average quarterback," will play better with no pass rush in his face.

"Throw in the dynamic running and pass-catching skills of Maurice Jones-Drew against a Denver front seven that is susceptible to bad tackling, and this has the makings of a long, hot and sweaty afternoon for the Broncos," said Roberts, who analyzes the rest of today's Week 1 schedule:

■ Carolina at N.Y. Giants (-6½): I wasn't overly impressed by the play of Panthers quarterback Matt Moore in the preseason. However, he did close out last season with a 4-1 record while throwing eight touchdown passes and one interception. Because of their running game, I like the Panthers to stay close and possibly upset the Giants.

■ Miami (-3) at Buffalo: The entire betting world is on the Dolphins, and that's the first sign the home team might be the side to go with. The Bills seem improved, and Buffalo coach Chan Gailey's play-calling and willingness to throw downfield will open the field up for rookie running back C.J. Spiller. I'm taking the home 'dog.

■ Atlanta (-2) at Pittsburgh: The Falcons have the look of a team that should compete for a division title. The Steelers are hoping second-year quarterback Dennis Dixon can minimize mistakes and allow the running game and defense to lead the way. I like the Steelers, with their veterans making enough plays to tough out the win.

■ Detroit at Chicago (-6½): The Bears' two best games of the 2009 season came at the expense of the lowly Lions. They put up 48 and 37 points in those games with Jay Cutler throwing a combined six TD passes with no interceptions. Unfortunately for the Bears and Cutler, they couldn't play the Lions every week. I'll go with Chicago to cover.

■ Cincinnati at New England (-5): The Bengals found the winning formula last year -- run the ball and keep Carson Palmer healthy by not having him throw so much. Even though Palmer has a few new toys to work with on offense, the winning formula will not change. I look for a low-scoring game with the Bengals controlling the clock and keeping it close.

■ Cleveland at Tampa Bay (-3): Browns president Mike Holmgren has already made an impact with his new team because the offense coach Eric Mangini used in the preseason, which has been fluid and crisp, looked nothing like the previous scheme. One reason for the success has been veteran QB Jake Delhomme. I like the Browns to upset the Buccaneers, who are led by the opposite of what Delhomme offers in Josh Freeman.

■ Indianapolis (-2) at Houston: The Colts go far in the playoffs because they win big games in the fourth quarter, and the Texans don't because they lose big games in the fourth quarter. This first game will define what coach Gary Kubiak and the Texans are about, and I think they'll use it as their rallying cry to springboard into playoff contention.

■ Oakland at Tennessee (-6½): There's not a lot to dislike about the Titans, who won eight of their last 10 games in 2009. Their offense, led by Vince Young and Chris Johnson, is tough to defend. Laying only 6 points in this game seems one of the easier favorites on the board to side with, but the weight of the public backing the Titans at an 80 percent clip is sometimes too much to shoulder.

■ Green Bay (-3) at Philadelphia: Speaking of public weight, the Packers and over the total (47½) are two bets bound to be on every parlay this week. Kevin Kolb should have no problem running the Philadelphia offense. The question is if the Eagles can stop Aaron Rodgers. The answer is probably no, meaning that the total should go over as everyone thinks it will. But I do like the value of getting three points at home with Philly.

■ San Francisco (-3) at Seattle: The 49ers look to be one of the stronger teams in the NFC and should roll through a weak West division. I love Seahawks coach Pete Carroll's style and philosophy, but he doesn't have a stacked pool of players the way he did at Southern California. What he does have is a brittle QB, Matt Hasselbeck, who will rely on a group of inexperienced receivers. I love the home underdogs in most instances but can't back the Seahawks.

■ Arizona (-3½) at St. Louis: There is a lot of pressure on both quarterbacks in this game, but the heavier burden might rest with Arizona's Derek Anderson, who has to try to fill Kurt Warner's shoes as well as prove the team made the right decision in booting Matt Leinart. The Rams' Sam Bradford excelled in the preseason and has the look of a rookie who could have immediate success. This is a toss-up with a slight lean to St. Louis and over the total (39).

■ Dallas (-3½) at Washington: I wasn't impressed with either team during the preseason. The Cowboys have all kinds of problems on their offensive line, while the Redskins' Donovan McNabb has an injured ankle. Under the total of 44 looks attractive. As for the side, I'll take Mike Shanahan at home getting points against Wade Phillips.

COMPILED BY REVIEW-JOURNAL SPORTS WRITER MATT YOUMANS