Patriots, Falcons on opposite ends

With the NFL season set for kickoff Thursday, the Las Vegas Sports Consultants team of oddsmakers is pleased to make a return to the Review-Journal on Sundays. It should be another wild ride.

It seems everyone has an opinion on something relating to the NFL, so let's go over some regular-season win totals.

A common misconception is most bettors are not willing to tie up their money for the long haul on future wagers. According to Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay, if it's on the board and a strong opinion exists, let the games begin.

"I believe it's a very small group of people that hesitate to bet futures because of the time frames involved, especially when it comes to the NFL," Kornegay said.

There's a common denominator in play each year surrounding win totals.

Public bettors come to town and wager on their favorite teams to go over the total, while the majority of professional money is placed on the under, anticipating regression and injuries.

Kenny White of LVSC said there is a happy medium, and an element of unpredictability, when analyzing win totals.

"Over the last 10 years, teams revert to the mean total of eight victories," White said. "The past two years have seen teams projected to win eight or more games fail to accomplish the feat 25 of 38 times (66 percent), while teams sent out at 71/2 or fewer wins went over at a 72 percent clip (18-7)."

With that in mind, it's crystal ball time. To no surprise, the New England Patriots are perched atop the win list at 121/2.

The bottom of the barrel features Atlanta (41/2, over minus-140), followed by Miami and Kansas City, both slated to win 51/2 games. The Dolphins' win total moved up a half-game with the addition of quarterback Chad Pennington.

The Brett Favre saga finally came to a head in early August, prompting a few changes on the betting board. The New York Jets' win total went up from 7 (over minus-140) to 8 (over minus-120).

"(Favre) could be the missing piece of the puzzle for the Jets, who had upgraded at virtually every position in the offseason," LVSC oddsmaker Mike Seba said.

As usual, sharp money has surfaced under several totals on the regular-season win board. Quality and high-profile teams including Indianapolis, Dallas, Jacksonville and Pittsburgh have seen their original postings take a slight dip.

As for Thursday's season opener, the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants host the Washington Redskins, and the Giants are consensus 31/2-point favorites, with a total of 401/2. A look back at similar scenarios in recent years might surprise you.

With pregame ceremonies and the dispensing of rings, one would think it's a logical assumption the champs might be distracted. That has not been the case.

The defending champs have hosted the last four Thursday openers -- New England twice, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. Those teams went 4-0 straight up and 3-0-1 against the spread, with three of the four games going over the total. Last year, the Colts routed New Orleans, 41-10, in a game that went under the total.

The Giants, residing in the salty NFC East, are projected to win nine games this season.

"They have a bull's-eye on their head," LVSC odds director Tony Sinisi said. "Their road prowess last season was nothing short of remarkable. In reality, it was an aberration."

In addition, a season-ending injury suffered by defensive end Osi Umenyiora could prove to have a major impact on a defense that prides itself on pressuring the quarterback.

Sinisi and the LVSC oddsmakers will keep an eye on the Redskins early.

"With a new head coach, plus different offensive and defensive coordinators, it makes it difficult to have a strong read on this team," Sinisi said. "The learning curve is a tall order for the players when dealing with an entirely different coaching staff. That challenge exists for the oddsmakers and bettors, as well."

Brian Blessing, project manager for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, can be reached at bblessing@lvsc.com. Listen to the LVSC oddsmakers on Sportsbook Radio, weekdays at 4 p.m. on Fox Sports Radio (1460 AM). Visit Vegassportsconnect.com for more odds information.