Playoff contests hold no secrets

Two of the games to be played on the NFL's wild-card weekend are rematches of games played earlier this season.

Jacksonville returns to Pittsburgh, where the Jaguars defeated the Steelers 29-22 on Dec. 16. It was a bad-weather game, and the Jaguars served notice they are not your typical team from Florida that disappears when Mother Nature shows up in a bad mood.

The Jaguars used a stalwart running game with Fred Taylor to record the victory, letting it be known they will not be an easy out in the postseason.

In mid-December, the Steelers were sent out as 3-point favorites, and that's where the game closed. The send-out for the total was 381/2, but with the inclement weather that day, the total dropped to 34.

Today's game was sent out as a Pick, but money has surfaced on the Jaguars throughout the week, and Jacksonville currently stands as a 21/2-point favorite. The total of 381/2 mirrored the regular-season contest, and there has been a slight lean to the over, with 391/2 the current consensus.

The Steelers have lost running back Willie Parker, whose worth in relation to the wagering line is in the neighborhood of 11/2 points. Pittsburgh seemingly has limped into the playoffs, but is that necessarily the case?

In today's other game, Seattle opened as a 4-point home favorite, but the Washington Redskins' recent run, led by quarterback Todd Collins, has inspired bettors to show continued support for the underdog. In most locations, the game has landed on the key number of 3.

The Seahawks are a completely different animal when playing at home. This season, they were 7-1 at home and 6-1-1 against the spread. In the past three years, including playoff games, the Seahawks sport a 23-4 record at Qwest Field.

The New York Giants visit Tampa Bay on Sunday, with the Buccaneers consensus 3-point favorites. Quarterback Jeff Garcia has made it his lot in life to take out the Giants at the knees in the postseason. It has been awhile since either club has had playoff success. The Giants' last postseason win was in 2001, while the Bucs have been quiet since winning Super Bowl XXXVII in 2003.

Which angle do you prefer? The Giants will have nothing left in the tank following an inspired effort against the New England Patriots, or they'll build off that performance and get the job done in Tampa Bay. Will the Bucs be fresh and fired up, or rusty with their starters taking the last two weeks of the regular season off?

The other rematch is Tennessee heading to San Diego. On Dec. 9, the Chargers, as 1-point road favorites, staged an improbable comeback, tying the game with nine seconds left and winning 23-17 on a LaDainian Tomlinson touchdown run in overtime.

San Diego is a 10-point favorite for Sunday's game, with the banged-up Titans coming in without tight end Bo Scaife and wide receiver Roydell Williams, who broke an ankle during Wednesday's practice. Surprisingly, Titans coach Jeff Fisher is 0-4 against the Chargers. And we all know about San Diego's penchant for self-implosion in the playoffs.

The Titans have a unique ability to hang around. If it's close in the fourth quarter, sideline cameras will have a field day showing San Diego coach Norv Turner and his deer-in-the-headlights demeanor.

How have the numbers changed for the rematch from the oddsmakers' perspective?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants oddsmaker Sean Van Patten has a general rule of thumb, with a few caveats.

"I'm inclined to shade my totals lower. It's a fine line though, as the general public loves to bet the wild-card games over the total," Van Patten said. "If you look at these four games, there are really no high-powered offenses that will be on display."

LVSC odds director Tony Sinisi takes a bottom-line approach to the NFL postseason.

"We know these teams well. There are no secrets," Sinisi said. "No longer do we have the subtleties of look-ahead games and who a team might have played the week before. It's one and done.

"The numbers are easier to make as the magnitude of the games increases. In addition, the bettors are focused on four games, not 16, so the numbers had better be right."

Brian Blessing, project manager for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, can be reached at bblessing@lvsc.com. Hear the LVSC oddsmakers on Sportsbook Radio, weekdays at 4 p.m. on KENO-AM (1460).