Rested Badgers set to rebound
It would appear Wisconsin and Purdue are teams headed in opposite directions entering today's Big Ten matchup at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison.
After all, the Badgers are on a two-game conference losing streak, while the Boilermakers are coming off back-to-back victories over Ohio State and Illinois.
But closer examination uncovers a host of handicapping advantages in the Badgers' corner.
First of all, Purdue is playing for the ninth straight week and Wisconsin is off a much-needed bye week.
From a technical standpoint, the Boilermakers have not been conference road warriors in recent times, compiling a 6-14 mark against the spread as an away underdog in their past 20 in the role.
Senior quarterback Joey Elliott is putting up impressive numbers for Purdue, but its defense is not particularly stingy against the run, allowing 156.3 yards per game to rank 81st among the 120 teams in Division I.
Wisconsin tailback John Clay, a physical runner, could be in for a big day against the Boilermakers, who have had difficulty holding back the better running teams on their schedule.
Go with Wisconsin as a 61/2-point favorite.
Six more plays for today (home team in CAPS):
• BOSTON COLLEGE (-5) over Central Michigan -- The Chippewas of the Mid-American Conference upset Michigan State early this season, but they typically have been at their worst as an away underdog against non-Big Ten foes, registering a 1-7-1 ATS mark in that role. Boston College has covered eight of its past 10 games at home.
• TEXAS A&M (-6) over Iowa State -- The Cyclones' shocking 9-7 victory over Nebraska last week was more the result of eight Cornhuskers turnovers than anything else. The Aggies have loads of talent offensively and should handle an Iowa State team taking to the Big 12 Conference road for the second week in a row.
• OKLAHOMA STATE (+91/2) over Texas -- The Longhorns could end up in the Bowl Championship Series title game if they get by Oklahoma State. Texas, however, was lucky to escape the Cowboys last season in Austin and should face an even stiffer challenge before a packed house of Halloween night rowdies in Boone Pickens Stadium.
• Texas-OKLAHOMA STATE (Under 54) -- Simply put, the Longhorns' offense is a notch or two below last year's standards. On the flip side, the Texas defense has few peers in 2009, holding Oklahoma to negative yards rushing two weeks ago in Dallas.
• TEXAS TECH (-61/2) over Kansas -- Red Raiders coach Mike Leach obviously has done everything in his power to grab the attention of his players this week with some less-than-glowing comments about their girlfriends. Ouch! In any event, look for the Red Raiders to exploit the middle of the field in the passing game against a Kansas defense lacking standout linebackers.
• South Carolina (+6) over TENNESSEE -- The Volunteers are coming off an emotional loss at Alabama, while the Gamecocks thrive as away underdogs. South Carolina has covered 10 of its past 14 in this role, while the visitor in this series is 10-1-1 ATS.
Last week: 3-4 against the spread
Season: 15-26-1
Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone of Vegassportsauthority.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal this season.
