Sports books can offer insight on fringe players

The best part of fantasy football, the draft, is over. You've filled your roster, and it's time to make your picks come to fruition. You have 17 weeks to put all your data crunching and speculation to the test.

Along the road, the experience can be agonizing because of injuries or other reasons, but it can be gratifying watching your confidence in someone play out of the field just as you thought it would.

Each week, I'll offer thoughts on a few players who might be on the fringe of making your starting lineup. There's no point in suggesting you start Tom Brady against the Bills or Maurice Jones-Drew versus the Colts, because those are obvious starts.

No, what I'll do each week is suggest players who might be deep on your roster, or free agents, who should have a great week based on who they are playing and their situations with their teams.

I'll never suggest resting any of your top draft picks even if they're facing the 1985 Bears. Your studs always should be playing regardless of the opponent. That means your top two wide receivers and running backs and likely your quarterback if you got one of the top eight in the draft.

Most leagues have a flex position, or else go three deep at wideout or running back, which likely are to be players chosen from rounds eight through 12. Even though it might seem like a good idea to fill your starting lineup with your highest-drafted players, it deserves more consideration.

The players who finalize your lineup each week are the ones who can make or break your week in head-to-head combat.

A great tool to help with analyzing the fringe players is looking at what Nevada sports books offer on totals bets. The higher the total, the better the prospects are for a fringe player to do well.

This week, the highest totals are on Detroit-New Orleans at 481/2, Buffalo-New England at 471/2, San Francisco-Arizona at 461/2 and Chicago-Green Bay at 461/2. Without doing much research or your own, those are the teams that should stand out when keying on questionable players who might make your lineup.

For instance, if it comes down to a player like Ravens wideout Derrick Mason, who is about as consistent as they come, or the 49ers' Josh Morgan as being your final starter, use the game total as the final variable in the decision. The Ravens are 13-point favorites against Kansas City with a total of 36, suggesting the sharp bookmakers anticipate this being a Ravens runaway, leading to lots of running, little scoring and less need for the favored team to pass.

On the other side, the 49ers are 61/2-point underdogs to Arizona with a total of 461/2, making the anticipated score about 26-20. Morgan is San Francisco's top wide receiver, and under that scenario the 49ers will be down and required to throw a lot against a porous Cardinals defense. Morgan likely is to be the beneficiary of the 49ers' attack this week.

Here's a look at fringe running backs who could fill your starting lineups:

• Fred Jackson, Bills: It's a tough spot for the Bills this week at New England, but whatever movement Buffalo's offense has will go through Jackson. In the dink-and-dunk attack by Bills quarterback Trent Edwards, Jackson will catch lots of balls along with being the featured back while Marshawn Lynch is suspended for three games.

• Earnest Graham, Buccaneers: New coach Raheem Morris stated last week that he'll be going with a 2-2-1 rotation with his backs. The first two series will go to Cadillac Williams, the next two to Derrick Ward and the next to Graham. The key to his statement was that things might change weekly, but the back who gets only one series also will get goal-line duties. In this case, it's Graham.

• Leon Washington, Jets: New coach Rex Ryan said he wants to get Washington the ball at least 15 times a game. He's a guarantee to be the third-down back, but he could be even more than that. The Jets play against a Houston team that plays up-tempo, and Washington is sure to benefit from that type of style.

• Knowshon Moreno, Broncos: He had only three carries in preseason because of injury, but he's the face of the franchise in the Broncos' eyes. He'll be given every opportunity to succeed since he is the draft pick they got from the Bears for Jay Cutler. The Bengals' defense hasn't been upgraded much, and Moreno is running behind perhaps the league's best offensive line.

• Fred Taylor, Patriots: He'll be the goal-line guy as long as he stays healthy. There should be lots of scores for New England in its home opener, and Taylor is sure to be in the end zone at least once.

Micah Roberts is a Las Vegas-based writer who will contribute weekly fantasy football outlooks for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@gmail.com.