Rebels’ resume suggests 6 seed

Joe Lunardi is America, or at least the part about a land of opportunity for anyone able to expertly crunch numbers of a college basketball resume. He has turned himself into a March phenomenon, the person others closely follow in weeks leading up to the NCAA unveiling its tournament bracket.

He even has taught a class on bracketing at Saint Joseph's University, one also offered online, where over eight weeks you cover such topics as the tournament's history and selection process, its use of the Ratings Percentage Index and how teams are seeded.

Lunardi updated his latest bracket projections for ESPN on Saturday and placed UNLV as a No. 6 seed opposite No. 11 California.

Huh?

The teams met in a nonconference game here Dec. 23, so you figure them playing to open the NCAAs is a bigger long shot than New Mexico coach Steve Alford addressing the media after his team's Mountain West Conference championship win against San Diego State on Saturday with a net hanging around his neck.

Oh, wait. He actually did.

What, no Hawaiian leis available?

Predicting those teams that are rewarded with at-large berths has become more and more a sure thing for those paid to do so, but figuring out seeds from 4-10 hasn't. It's as much exact science as forecasting hurricanes.

The committee supposedly has specific criteria for how it determines where to place a team, but it might be easier to understand "Finnegan's Wake" than correctly guess what line good but not elite at-larges like UNLV will end up.

The Rebels over three months proved to be the Mountain West's third-best team, during 14 league games and in three days in Las Vegas for the tournament.

What, if anything, that will mean when the bracket is announced today is anyone's guess.

"We're the (league's) automatic qualifier," Alford said after his team's 68-59 victory over the Aztecs at the Thomas & Mack Center. "We had the best record in the league. We obviously feel like we deserve the best seed."

He's 47 and was wearing a net, which made it hard to take his otherwise logical plea seriously.

UNLV, after losing to New Mexico in a semifinal on Friday, has settled into the 6 or 7 spot on most bracketology forecasts, a range that makes sense given their overall numbers and yet also a tad generous with how inconsistent they have been the past several weeks.

I assume they would consider a 6 today more than fair. The Rebels are 26-8 and have only one loss to a team -- Texas Christian -- with an RPI over 100. UNLV has an RPI of 14 and a schedule rating of 37, but its 6-7 mark in true road games and the fact it went 5-5 over the last 10 games probably won't have committee members bubbling with admiration.

It wouldn't be a shock to see the Rebels as a 7, and some are talking a third straight trip to the 8-9 line.

"I don't want to speculate on specific (seed) numbers because I don't know all that goes into the committee making its decisions," Rebels coach Dave Rice said. "I do think we have tried to do all of the things that are important to maximizing our seeding in terms of the schedule we played.

"Our most important goal is to make the NCAA Tournament."

That part was decided long ago, a journey to the NCAA field that took its first major step with an upset of then-No. 1 North Carolina at Orleans Arena in November. More than anything else, it seems one huge victory that opened the eyes of a national audience has carried even more weight than first thought, given the Tar Heels likely are headed to a No. 1 line today.

Where the Rebels are sent might be as important as specific seed. The ideal destination for UNLV, and this isn't a line you read every day or in a lifetime, would be Albuquerque, N.M. Fans could travel, and a team used to playing in altitude would own an edge over those who aren't.

"Obviously, seeding has an impact, and yet we all saw (Virginia Commonwealth) have to win a play-in game (last year), and all of a sudden, it's in the Final Four," San Diego State coach Steve Fisher said. "I do think if they look and say, 'This is a good league; look what it has done,' it could raise all of us up a little bit.

"But for me to comment intelligently, I have no clue."

Which makes him part of the vast majority, net-wearing head coaches included.

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports columnist Ed Graney can be reached at egraney@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4618. He can be heard from noon to 3 p.m. Monday through Friday on "Gridlock," ESPN Radio 1000 AM and 98.9 FM. Follow him on Twitter: @edgraney.