Teams not likely to pass on passers

The NFL holds the first round of its annual amateur draft tonight, and the drama level again might reach that of the "Home Shopping Network."

Indianapolis already has announced it will take Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck with the No. 1 pick. Washington already has traded away a boatload of future early selections to take quarterback Robert Griffin III at No. 2.

Someone is sure to fall over themselves to choose quarterback Ryan Tannehill in the first 10 picks. You can bet a team is out there that can't wait to select quarterback Brandon Weeden early so that it has him in camp before he turns 50 by the season opener.

The trend, as they say, continues.

If chicks dig the long ball in baseball, television executives dig post patterns in football. Specifically, those who complete lots of them.

The rules are pretty straightforward now. Wide receivers running patterns can't be touched, and quarterbacks throwing to them barely can be breathed upon. So what we annually are left with is a draft in which teams with top-10 picks are scared out of their minds about possibly passing on the next Aaron Rodgers, who went 24th overall to Green Bay in 2005.

And then there is that Tom Brady fellow, who, while he might dress in the offseason like Bert the chimney sweeper from "Mary Poppins," lasted until the sixth round of the 2000 draft.

"Just look at player salaries now," said NFL agent Steve Caric, who represents, among others, St. Louis running back and former Eldorado High standout Steven Jackson. "The highest ones are at quarterback. The second are those who rush the quarterback. Then the ones who protect the quarterback. Then the ones who cover wide receivers. Then the receivers. It's a passing league, and I don't see it changing.

"Players and owners all make money off the TV deals. That's what makes the league profitable. The more exciting the game, the more scoring there is, the more stats there are for fantasy leagues, the more advertising dollars will go up, the more people will tune in and pay attention."

I'm all for it. If you want football with no scoring, watch an English Premier League match. I get as jazzed about Bolton against Aston Villa as the next guy, but not on Sundays in the fall.

What all this passing has done: Running backs and tight ends remain important but not critical areas when evaluating early-round picks. Trent Richardson is a running back from Alabama expected to go in the top five selections tonight. He's the exception.

The feeling is, you no longer can win a Super Bowl with Brad Johnson or Trent Dilfer at quarterback. You need a star, or at least someone arriving from college who owns such qualities. If you're not certain he does, then you reach like crazy and hope he turns into one of the greatest of all time who has a bizarre fondness for cardigan sweaters, a paperboy cap and thick-framed glasses.

Teams now seek value in running back and tight end later in a draft. They are positions viewed differently as opposed to 10 years ago, spots in which quality can be discovered over the first 90 or so picks.

Tight ends are more athletic, more apt to split out and be expected to cause matchup problems downfield, less apt to play the role of a guy who blocks defensive ends and linebackers.

No one will look for the next Todd Heap tonight or over the next five rounds of the draft, but they will scour the board to find the next Rob Gronkowski or Aaron Hernandez or Jimmy Graham.

Running back is more a position-by-committee now, no one player asked to pull an Emmitt Smith or Walter Payton and carry the load, team and stadium on his back.

"The (draft) emphasis is now all about finding a franchise quarterback, that next guy able to lead their offense to a Super Bowl," Caric said. "Teams know they need one to win. They need someone to become that guy."

Most think Luck will be. Most think RG3 will be. Most are wondering how a guy such as Tannehill went from possibly not being among the top five quarterbacks in the Big 12 at Texas A&M last season to such a lofty draft status. Most hope Oklahoma State's Weeden can play an NFL game before the memory loss and shaky hands and need for daily naps set in.

This isn't Bolton against Aston Villa.

This is the NFL Draft of 2012.

And it's not about to change any decade soon.

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports columnist Ed Graney can be reached at egraney@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4618. He can be heard from noon to 3 p.m. Monday through Friday on "Gridlock," ESPN 1100 and 98.9 FM. Follow him on Twitter: @edgraney.