UNLV’s game at Arizona critical to Rebels’ tournament hopes

TUCSON, Ariz. — It all made sense before Wednesday, how this week might play out for UNLV's basketball team, how important it could prove in regards to the postseason, how a winnable game against Arizona State would be followed by an extremely difficult one at Arizona. How sweeping the Sun Devils and Wildcats might secure the sort of non-conference resume that would warrant an at-large NCAA Tournament berth come March should the Rebels not win the Mountain West Tournament on their own floor.

And then, in the span of 20 forgettable minutes, everything changed.

UNLV blew all of a 12-point halftime lead against ASU and walked off the Thomas & Mack Center court a dejected 66-56 loser, not the sort of result or effort that would impress any selection committee member watching.

It also made Saturday night's game against No. 12 Arizona, which owns the nation's longest active home winning streak at 45 and has beaten 31 straight non-conference opponents in McKale Center, even more significant than previously imagined.

It's still somewhat early. It's not yet January. Conference play hasn't commenced. Those metrics that will be used to decide at-large berths three months from now could change dramatically when it comes to a specific team like the Rebels.

But they're worth a glance.

It's worth knowing what specific people think about how the Rebels have done thus far.

UNLV today owns a Ratings Percentage Index of 85 and a schedule rank of 106 nationally, numbers that sit fourth in what has proven to be a weak Mountain West during non-conference play.

Think about it: New Mexico has the league's best RPI today at 40 and none of the other 10 teams have one better than 62. Seven teams are at 112 or lower and only three (New Mexico, Boise State and San Diego State) have Top 100 schedules.

Translation: Any team that proves to be conference contenders shouldn't count on adding much juice to its resumes throughout Mountain West play.

ESPN this week released its second Bracketology forecast of the season and UNLV was one of two league teams placed into the NCAA Tournament should it begin today. San Diego State was given a No. 11 seed in the main bracket, while the Rebels were among the last four chosen and slotted in an 11 seed play-in game.

But that was before the loss to ASU.

"I think the (metrics) are something we use when we evaluate our team and where we need to improve, when we evaluate things like our schedule," Rebels coach Dave Rice said. "But no matter which ones you are using, you know when a team you're playing is good and when they're not. A lot of that is just common sense.

"Sure, we are absolutely aware of where people might have us in things like (Bracketology), but I still believe that until conference play begins, it's still way too early to tell anything. It's important to feel your program is nationally relevant, and some of those (metrics) can be used to motivate your team."

More and more when choosing at-large teams, the committee is glancing beyond RPI, as flawed a tool as the selection process owns. More and more, the Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings (kenpom.com) are dissected.

Today, UNLV ranks 84 in kenpom and is not part of its projected 68-team NCAA field.

The Rebels aren't even listed among the next eight teams out.

New Mexico as a No. 12 seed is the lone Mountain West team in the kenpom bracket.

All of it says a few things: In the the big picture, Mountain West teams have not in any way distinguished themselves since the season began. UNLV has two of the better non-league wins in beating Indiana and Oregon on neutral courts, but those obviously haven't been enough to overly impress any computer.

It also means this: UNLV tonight could shoot up all metric rankings by doing what few ever manage, which is win at Arizona. The Wildcats remain the country's only program with multiple home winning streaks in the top ten in college basketball history.

"You don't need to look at any computer numbers to know how much of a challenge it is playing at Arizona," Rice said. "It's a great team with a great homecourt advantage. They have that home winning streak for good reason. It's obviously a very difficult place in which to go in and win.

"I think a big key for an (at-large resume) is to avoid losses to teams with RPIs lower than 150. We don't have any of those. That's almost as important as getting quality wins. I'm not sitting at home each night stewing over or worrying about what kenpom might think about us. We're busy trying to get our team better. But it would be disingenuous of me to say we're not aware of those things. It changes by the day and the week. We want to win every game. That's our only mindset."

It's still somewhat early. Conference play hasn't commenced.

But early metrics suggest UNLV, if it doesn't win the conference tournament, needs to do a lot more to secure an NCAA berth.

Winning Saturday night wouldn't just be a good beginning.

It would be a massive one.

Ed Graney can be reached at egraney@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4618. He can be a heard on "Seat and Ed" on Fox Sports 1340 from 2 p.m. to 4 p.m. Monday through Friday. On Twitter: @edgraney