At least Brady still has Gisele

Feeling sorry for Tom Brady would be foolish. The NFL's model quarterback has a supermodel wife on his left arm and a right arm that has produced three Super Bowl wins.

The guy can't have it all. No longer is he the game's greatest closer, that's all. Once again, Brady and the New England Patriots measured up a little shorter than the New York Giants, who clearly have got Brady's number.

"I love Brady," said Mike Colbert, Cantor Gaming sports book director at M Resort, "but Brady had every chance in the world to win it, and he didn't do it."

Colbert thought Brady would win it, and I did, too. Four years ago, he was upstaged by Eli Manning in a Super Bowl stunner, but instead of revenge, Brady got a bitter sense of deja vu.

The biggest difference is this time it was not such a surprise to see Manning orchestrate the winning 88-yard drive that lifted the Giants over the Patriots 21-17 on Sunday in Indianapolis.

The high-stakes game ended with Brady firing a futile Hail Mary, and his coach, Bill Belichick, walking off on the short end of the postgame handshake, same as in 2008, when the majority of the betting public also believed in the underdog.

After the pregame hype, crazy halftime show and all the cigarette smoke cleared, LVH sports book director Jay Kornegay summed up the situation for his book and most others by calling the game a "very small winner."

The point-spread result, with the Giants as 2½-to 3-point 'dogs, was mostly a wash. The money-line payouts on the Giants at around plus-130 were significant. The total going under the closing number of 53 was good for the sharp bettors and bad for the public.

What was ugly was how Brady walked away a small loser after staking New England to a 17-9 lead on the opening drive of the third quarter. He closed the deal with Gisele, but not the Giants.

"At that point, the Patriots were supposed to close the show," Colbert said. "They had numerous shots to put it away. That's a bad loss for New England."

With four minutes left, and the Patriots clinging to a tenuous 17-15 edge, Brady took a snap at midfield and fired a pass to Wes Welker. If Welker makes the catch, New England likely wins. But Brady's throw was a couple feet off target, and Welker twisted to get both hands on the ball before dropping it.

"Welker might be the sickest guy. He catches that ball in his sleep. But it should have been thrown better," Colbert said. "If you're the Patriots, and if you're Brady, Belichick and Welker, that's a game that's going to stick with you for a lifetime."

Manning jumped through the window of opportunity, hitting Mario Manningham on a precision deep ball down the sideline to set up Ahmad Bradshaw's winning 6-yard touchdown run with 57 seconds to go. Bradshaw was allowed to score, due to a correctly calculated risk by Belichick, who always plays the odds.

Also making the right move was MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood, and he was rewarded for it. Rood was quick to move the opening line from 3½ to 2½, and he reported a bigger profit than most bookmakers.

"We had a pretty good day. We had a ton of Patriots money," Rood said. "Going to 2½ early was either going to be feast or famine. Hindsight is 20/20, and it's easy to say 2½ was the right number. We just didn't want it to fall 3. Obviously, 3½ was the wrong number."

South Point sports book director Bert Osborne, who bounced the line back and forth from 2½ to 3 for two weeks, survived what he termed a "hectic" finish.

"It was a small winner through the window for the game," he said. "It was an odd game. There was no flow to it."

Manning opened with nine consecutive completions, including a touchdown pass to Victor Cruz to put the Giants up 9-0 in the first quarter. Cruz was at around 8-1 to score the first touchdown.

But those odds were miniscule compared to the proposition payout on the game's first score. Brady was flagged for intentional grounding in the end zone, and a safety to be the first score ranged from 75-1 odds at MGM to 100-1 at the LVH.

"It probably cost us somewhere in the neighborhood of $250,000," Rood said. "If you take that out of the equation, our props would have been huge."

Kornegay, who said the crowd in the book "erupted" after the play, was incredulous.

"I would like to see one play called back," he said of the safety. "I can't believe a 100-1 payout came in. That just doesn't happen. Who would bet that? I don't have an answer for you."

The state's wagering handle on the game, by most accounts, is expected to stay consistent with last year's total of $87.5 million.

"The handle is big. I think it will challenge the record, seeing what we did and not just from sharp players," Colbert said. "If you put up $90 million as the over-under, I would bet the over."

Cantor Gaming accepted one $1 million wager and two for $500,000, Colbert said. The biggest bet was rumored to be on the Giants, but Colbert said some late sharp money showed on the Patriots.

"It wouldn't surprise me a bit if we never see Brady in a Super Bowl again," Colbert said. "He was supposed to win that game today."

Nobody's perfect. Brady was proof of that four years ago, and he was flawed again Sunday.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.