Butler not just sentimental favorite

No mystery surrounds Michigan State coach Tom Izzo. He might seem to carry a deep bag of magic tricks, but in reality he's just a tough guy who teaches the basic principles of basketball extremely well.

Relentless defense and strong rebounding can win a lot of games, and intelligent execution on the offensive end is another key to the equation. Few teams can put together all three pieces of the puzzle.

It also takes a little luck to reach the Final Four, and the Spartans have had some of that, too. But will Saturday in Indianapolis be the end of the road for Izzo?

Michigan State is a 1½-point underdog to Butler, and take a minute to soak in that line. The public team from the power conference is the 'dog. The small-school Cinderella is the favorite.

Many in the media are portraying Gordon Hayward as Jimmy Chitwood and the Bulldogs as the long-shot team from the movie "Hoosiers," but oddsmakers don't write Hollywood scripts.

Ken White, an oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, said the right team is favored by the right number.

"I think Butler is going to win," White said. "This is not a George Mason, which was such a huge shock to be there."

Four years ago, George Mason was a No. 11 seed when it reached the Final Four and promptly took a 15-point beating from Florida. Butler, a No. 5 seed, was highly ranked all season and is riding a 24-game winning streak.

The Bulldogs are every bit as tough defensively as the Spartans. Butler also rebounds -- it whipped Kansas State on the boards, no small achievement -- and plays with brains on offense.

The best player on the floor figures to be Hayward, a 6-foot-9-inch sophomore swingman. Michigan State's top player, guard Kalin Lucas, is injured and will be on the bench a few seats from Izzo.

"Lucas being out is going to be a big difference," White said. "Michigan State was fortunate to get by the last two teams without Lucas, but their luck is going to run out sooner or later.

"Hayward is an unbelievable player. I don't want to compare him to Larry Bird, but he can do many things."

White said he figures the intangibles are even. Butler will have more fan support playing in its hometown; Izzo and Spartans have the experience edge of playing on the big stage.

Michigan State barely got by New Mexico State and needed a buzzer beater to shoot down Maryland. The work of Izzo, though, to lead the Spartans this far without Lucas has been more confirmation of his greatness.

The Bulldogs went undefeated in the Horizon League, and who can name the other nine teams in that league? But Butler proved its worth by burying Syracuse and Kansas State.

The first game is puzzling, and the second game, in which Duke is a 2½-point favorite over West Virginia, is a riddle.

My game plan will be to side with the Blue Devils or pass. I would rather eat of bowl of broccoli and wash it down with a quart of spoiled milk than bet against Duke, which is good and lucky.

Proposition bets are another option. The Las Vegas Hilton, M Resort and Cal Neva sports books all have an array of props posted.

Lucky's sports books, based downtown at the Plaza, has posted lines on the possible title-game matchups for Monday. Duke is a 4½-point favorite over Butler and a 5-point favorite over Michigan State. West Virginia is a 2½-point favorite over Butler and a 3-point favorite over Michigan State.

The Blue Devils are plus-130 to win the championship, and right now that seems to be the best bet.

Without his top player, Izzo is nearing the end of the road, sooner or later.

If Butler reaches the title game, Hayward might want to say, "Let's win this game for all the small schools that never had a chance to get here."

But the Bulldogs are not just sentimental favorites on Saturday. They deserve to be favored. If they run into Duke it would be a different story, and I wouldn't bet on it ending like the movie.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.