Goodell could be bad guy to books

Unhappy people will be everywhere and there will be chaos, and this is not a story about Egypt. If the NFL closes its doors and goes dark, Roger Goodell might be remembered as the bad guy.

It's not just one guy, of course. But if a lockout becomes reality, Goodell, the league's commissioner since 2006 and the leader of the greedy owners, could be held responsible for not preventing a potential major league catastrophe.

As Tony Montana said, make way for the bad guy. People want to point fingers and say, "That's the bad guy."

Some will point fingers at the greedy players, and some won't care who's to blame. We just want to watch and wager on NFL games on Sundays and Mondays, and Nevada sports books need the business.

"You don't even like to think about it," Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations for Lucky's sports books, said of an NFL blackout. "Obviously, it has a huge effect."

News arrived Thursday that labor talks collapsed between league representatives and the NFL Players Association. A bargaining session was canceled, and Goodell called off an owners meeting set for next week. The talking heads on ESPN are saying a lockout is likely with the collective bargaining agreement expiring March 3.

Only the naive are surprised to hear it.

"There is always a lot of public posturing in these negotiations," said Robert Walker, retired MGM Mirage sports book director. "I am hoping there will be no work stoppage. I can only hope that cooler heads will prevail and this gets done. I believe that it will."

Eventually a deal will get done, but if a lockout extends into July, Las Vegas casinos could start counting losses.

"I don't make it a favorite for the NFL to start on time," Vaccaro said. "Although we're not allowed to book those type of events, I would book that we don't see preseason football and make that a small favorite.

"I hope it gets done. But the longer it drags on, it will have some effect. With the books, we've become dependent to some degree on coming to football season. Normal people start planning their vacations in June and July, and (no NFL) hurts the whole experience of people coming to town."

As of today, it still feels like business as usual. We're regrouping and resting after a long season, and the Las Vegas Hilton has odds to win next year's Super Bowl on the board.

"Can the Packers repeat?" Vaccaro said.

The Hilton posted New England as the 5-1 favorite, followed by Green Bay (6-1) and Pittsburgh (8-1). The Packers have a solid shot to repeat if Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback. If they have a replacement quarterback, who knows?

Vaccaro was a Las Vegas bookmaker in 1987, when a 24-day players' strike reduced the 16-game NFL season to 15. Week 3 was canceled and Weeks 4 through 6 were staged mostly with replacement players.

The replacement teams were mocked as the Chicago "Spare Bears" and the San Francisco "Phony Niners."

"It wasn't a pretty sight out here, and I just don't want to go through that again," Vaccaro said. "The general public just didn't (bet) those games. It was stupid, silly mayhem. You wrote a peanut for business. No one is going to come here for replacement games."

The state sports book handle for a regular-season week in the NFL is estimated in the $15 million neighborhood, so even a partial loss of the season would be significant. College football games can be moved to Sunday and Monday, but that could never fill the void.

"From a bookmaking perspective, it would obviously have a negative impact. Pro football is still the most popular sport by a wide margin," Walker said. "I am worried too that the handle may slip a little on college Saturdays, especially for the tourist destinations.

"An 18-game season, on the other hand, would be a boon to the books, if that's still on the table."

The two sides are not even sitting at the table today. But they will come together in time, and when a deal gets done maybe Goodell will be remembered as the good guy.

If the mess drags into August, though, there will be chaos.

■ BOTTOM LINES -- Professional handicapper Adam Meyer of Florida has said he won a major Super Bowl wager -- reportedly about $2.5 million -- on the Packers.

Last week, I mentioned the big-breasted girls wearing referee shirts and cowboy hats dealing blackjack were absent from Binion's. But the cowgirl dealers are still there. I'm pleased to report they were just moved to a different area of the reconfigured casino floor.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.