Opening weekend beckons bettors

One game into the NFL season, everything is already upside down. Underdog bettors are winners and Eli Manning, quarterback of the New York Giants and conquering hero of the Super Bowl seven months ago, is the biggest loser.

Welcome back to the toughest handicapping test imaginable. One week, you're 5-0 and eating swordfish and drinking champagne. The next, it's heartburn, hemorrhoids and 0-4 going into Monday night.

"It should be a great opening weekend," said MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood, exuding the optimism we all feel on a Friday, the calm before the storm.

The forecast calls for countless bad beats, backdoor covers, blowout wins and blind luck. But the thrill of betting the NFL beats the political cacophony that we hear at this time in an election year. So let's get the party started.

It actually started Wednesday, when the Dallas Cowboys, 3½-point underdogs, upended the Giants 24-17 in New York. Tony Romo succeeded where Tom Brady failed, and that was by beating Manning.

Quarterbacks are the key figures in winning or losing wagers, and this season is unique because five rookies will start at the position in Week 1. The most notable are Andrew Luck, the top draft pick of the Indianapolis Colts, and Robert Griffin III, the No. 2 pick of the Washington Redskins.

As Ronald Reagan once said during a presidential debate, "I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent's youth and inexperience." He was being sarcastic.

But a time-tested betting angle to take seriously is to attempt to exploit rookie quarterbacks, especially those debuting on the road.

Luck and the Colts are 10-point underdogs at Chicago. The early betting is lopsided on the side of the Bears.

"I'm a big Luck believer. I think he will be one of the best in the league in a short time," Cantor Gaming sports book director Mike Colbert said. "But I think the Bears will beat them bad."

Colbert is singing a different tune about Griffin, at least this week. The Redskins are 7-point underdogs at New Orleans, after sharp money drove the line down from 9. Griffin must trade big plays with Drew Brees, the league's passing leader a year ago.

"I know a rookie quarterback in his first game on the road in a hostile environment is not a recipe for success," Colbert said. "But I think you will see the Redskins play right with the Saints."

For those who see an edge in playing 6-point teasers, the Saints minus-1 is my No. 1 tip. The Houston Texans appear to be another attractive teaser option. The Texans, 12-point favorites, are hosting another rookie quarterback, Ryan Tannehill of the Miami Dolphins.

The Texans opened as 7-point favorites, and Tannehill is nobody's favorite. Rood said MGM Resorts, with its several books on the Strip, have written a stunning total of four tickets on the Dolphins.

"We've got some issues with that game. We have almost zero money on the Dolphins," Rood said. "Literally, it's about a $1,000-to-$1 ratio with Texans money."

The fourth rookie quarterback to make a road start will be Russell Wilson, who once was considered too short to be an effective NFL starter. But he's not only starting his first game, his Seattle Seahawks are 2½-point favorites at Arizona.

Brandon Weeden, the oldest of the five rookie QBs, gets to open at home. Weeden and the Cleveland Browns are 9-point 'dogs to Philadelphia.

"We've got public money on a lot of these favorites," Rood said. "But in the NFL, the difference between the top and bottom teams is very small."

As true as that is, is the difference between Detroit and St. Louis only 7 points? The Lions look like a good bet. As for the New York Jets, who really knows?

Will Peyton Manning follow in the footsteps of Tim Tebow and lead the Denver Broncos past the Pittsburgh Steelers? I believe so.

Our love-hate relationship with NFL handicapping is rekindled and sure to be as unpredictable as ever. When approaching the window in doubt, wagering against a rookie quarterback is not a bad place to start.

■ CLOSING NUMBERS - I'll pass on Florida State as a 70½-point favorite over Savannah State, but here are five plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):

KANSAS (-10) over Rice; WYOMING (-2½) over Toledo; Purdue (+14½) over NOTRE DAME; UNR (-1½) over South Florida; ARIZONA STATE (-4) over Illinois.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal
.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts "The Las Vegas Sportsline" weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM, 98.9 FM).
Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.