Trojans haven’t lived up to hype

In August, when the days were longer and the weather warmer, Matt Barkley looked the part of a can't-miss quarterback prospect. Southern California was ranked No. 1, and its season seemed perfectly scripted.

Sunshine will splash the Rose Bowl, one of the most picturesque settings for college football, on Saturday afternoon. But Barkley has lost his glow, and the Trojans have fallen from grace.

Barkley still might be the top pick in the next NFL Draft, but the only title USC can claim with certainty is this one - the most disappointing team in the nation.

"USC is No. 1 in my book in terms of disappointments," Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller said.

There are several other underachievers, from Arkansas to West Virginia, but no team attracted futures wagers and hype quite like the Trojans. This was supposed to be their year. Instead, they might rank No. 2 in Los Angeles.

Instead of Barkley chasing the Heisman Trophy, he's faced with a stiff challenge from UCLA and its freshman quarterback, Brett Hundley.

The Bruins are 3½-point underdogs. Over the summer, when Miller posted lines at the Golden Nugget, the Trojans were laying 10½, and bettors pushed the number to 13. It's easy to figure which team is overachieving.

But forget August. A year ago, USC was a 16½-point favorite when it humiliated UCLA, 50-0. It could be said the Bruins' turnaround is totally unexpected, but they got a lot better just by dumping coach Rick Neuheisel and hiring Jim Mora Jr. to breathe life into a dying program.

The coach on somewhat of a hot seat now is Lane Kiffin, who wins few friends with childish behavior. And the friends he does have will leave if he keeps losing games.

"Kiffin's behavior is very immature. He's a spoiled brat. The bottom line is he's an irritant," said The Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall, one of the few who projected USC as overrated in August.

"The Trojans have got NFL-caliber talent all over that roster, but I think Kiffin has kind of held them back. Kiffin is being exposed as something less than a top-tier coach and perhaps not the guy to lead the program all the way back."

Losses at Stanford and Arizona were surprises to most everyone. "We really thought USC would be undefeated going into the Oregon game," Miller said.

Unwisely, the Trojans got into a track meet with the Ducks, who blew them up for 62 points, to little surprise. USC is 7-3 straight up and 3-7 against the spread, but still can salvage respectability by beating UCLA and Notre Dame to close the regular season.

"When the Trojans have been challenged this year, they have folded on every occasion, and that goes back to leadership," Marshall said.

The Bruins (7-3) want payback. The winner takes the Pacific-12 Conference South title.

"It was a complete embarrassment last year, and the Trojans were almost laughing at UCLA," Marshall said. "I have a feeling you'll get everything from the Bruins."

Marshall (Goldsheet.com) forecasts UCLA as a 34-30 winner, and the sharp money has been showing on the underdog.

The counter argument is USC has more talent, it starts a senior quarterback opposite a freshman, and the Trojans have two of the best wide receivers in the nation in Marqise Lee and Robert Woods.

With the Southeastern Conference essentially taking the week off by hosting a slew of pathetic nonconference games - Alabama-Western Carolina, Georgia-Georgia Southern, South Carolina-Wofford, Florida-Jacksonville State - the battle for Los Angeles is the highlight of the college weekend.

USC has disappointed its bettors all season, so why not one more time?

■ CLOSING NUMBERS - I crashed to 1-3-1 last week, and that makes it 30-11-1 for the past eight weeks. This card is ugly, so here are five low-rated plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):

Northwestern (+7) over MICHIGAN STATE; PENN STATE (-17½) over Indiana; WEST VIRGINIA (+11) over Oklahoma; UCLA (+3½) over Usc; Ohio State (+2½) over WISCONSIN.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts "The Las Vegas Sportsline" weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM, 98.9 FM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.