Unbeaten Bengals vulnerable as favorite at Buffalo
A so-called perfect world does not exist in the NFL. If everything is going right, you can bet something is about to go wrong. And everything is going right for Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Bengals are 5-0 after a miraculous fourth-quarter comeback and overtime victory over Seattle. Dalton, once booed and heckled by the home fans, is the toast of the town. The injury report is short. The New England Patriots are not on the schedule.
It's about time for something to go wrong. So, after playing three of their past four games at home, the Bengals are hitting the road for Buffalo.
The Bills are dealing with adversity, mostly in the form of injuries. Running back LeSean McCoy has been hobbled by a sore hamstring, quarterback Tyrod Taylor has a bad knee, and wide receivers Percy Harvin (hip) and Sammy Watkins (calf) are questionable to play Sunday.
It's not easy to bet the Bills this week, but I'm looking for a spot to bet against the Bengals, so this is it. I'll take 3 points with Buffalo, which was getting 3½ until the hook disappeared Friday. It's not only a bad spot for Cincinnati, it's a tricky matchup, and that's why sharp money is showing on the 'dog.
Dalton is off to a fast start, throwing for 11 touchdowns with two interceptions. But much like a racehorse that bursts out of the gate and sets the pace at the second turn, he's probably going to fade. His passer rating is in the Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers neighborhood, and Dalton just does not belong there.
The Bengals' ground attack has set up Dalton to have success, yet the Bills can take that away. Buffalo's run defense ranks third in the league, allowing 82.2 yards per game.
The Bills are always a better bet in the underdog role, especially at home, and coach Rex Ryan's defense can slow Dalton's fantasy ride.
It appears McCoy will play, and Harvin and Watkins will try to go. Even if Taylor is sidelined, I have sufficient faith in backup quarterback EJ Manuel after seeing his improved play in the preseason.
The league has five unbeaten teams — Cincinnati, Carolina, Denver, Green Bay and New England — but only the Packers and Patriots have a shot of living in a perfect world this season. Don't be surprised if the banged-up Bills take down the Bengals.
Four more picks for Week 6 (home team in CAPS):
* Texans (+1) over JAGUARS: It has been a season of hard knocks for Houston. The tailspin started in Week 1, when coach Bill O'Brien panicked and benched quarterback Brian Hoyer for Ryan Mallett. Bad move. But Hoyer is back in the saddle. Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles has a sore shoulder that might get worse. J.J. Watt sacked Bortles six times in two games last season. This should be the right spot for the Texans.
* Dolphins (+1½) over TITANS: Joe Philbin is finally out, the fiery Dan Campbell is in, and the coaching change will benefit Miami. Dolphins defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, a huge disappointment, has sounded motivated this week. Off a bye, expect to see a different Dolphins team.
* Chargers (+10½) over PACKERS: Green Bay is 5-0 straight up and ATS, but three of the covers were fortunate. The offense was out of sync the past two weeks against St. Louis and San Francisco. San Diego has back-door cover ability, if needed. Philip Rivers is completing 71.3 percent of his passes, and tight end Antonio Gates is back to help. The Chargers will be hungry after choking Monday night.
* Giants (+4½) over EAGLES: Eli Manning has overcome his early-season blunders to pass for 10 touchdowns with two interceptions, and the Giants rank No. 2 in run defense. The Giants have covered four straight on the road, and they won in Philadelphia in 2011 and 2013. The Eagles still have plenty of offensive problems.
Last week: 3-1-1 against the spread
Season: 12-12-1
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts "The Las Vegas Sportsline" weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him: @mattyoumans247
