Zigzag theory says side with Jazz

It's only a matter of time before Jerry Sloan sees his Utah Jazz put to sleep for another offseason. It's unfortunate, too, because the Jazz play basketball the right way, for a coach who's no slouch.

Sloan is a tough-minded authority figure who commands respect from his players, and their play mirrors him. Often in the NBA, the knuckleheads run the team, and proof of that was in the Denver Nuggets' demise without George Karl on the bench.

Down 2-0 to the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference semifinals, the Jazz are halfway to buried. But don't look for them to roll over and die without a struggle.

Deron Williams says he's the best point guard in the league, and I agree. Carlos Boozer is a power forward who never backs down from battling 7-footers. It's a team that follows Sloan's lead and attacks relentlessly when the Lakers relax.

"If you ever watched Sloan play with the Bulls, he was a hell of a disciplined ballplayer. I think a lot of that Utah attitude comes from the coach," Vegas Sports Authority handicapper Jim Kruger said.

After a three-day break, the Jazz and Lakers get reacquainted Saturday in Salt Lake City. Followers of the zigzag theory will look to bet the Jazz, and oddsmakers are not naive to that because they made Utah a 4-point favorite.

A similar situation exists in the Phoenix-San Antonio series. The Spurs, down 2-0, are 6-point home favorites in tonight's Game 3.

"Really, the only side to bet for either of those games, in my opinion, is the home team," Kruger said. "The line for San Antonio is a little higher than I wish. The oddsmakers are taking into account the zigzag theory."

The NBA playoffs follow distinct patterns that create great wagering opportunities. But many bettors who regurgitate the phrase "zigzag theory" might not know exactly what it means or how to use it.

Tony Salinas, a high-rolling gambler and no stranger to Las Vegas sports books, claims credit for developing the theory for the NBA. You can find his complete strategy by doing a Google search, but here is an outline of his five key points:

■ Take the home team against the spread in the first game. The crowds are sky high. The visitor is thinking about earning a split, and often throws in the towel if it falls way behind, planning on coming back strong the next game.

■ Take the Game 1 straight-up loser against the spread in the second game. If the road team lost outright, take it to cover. If the home team suffered an upset, take it to bounce back.

■ Take the home team against the spread in Game 3. It doesn't matter who won or lost the second game. The home team responds. The referees often go with the flow. The visitor takes its medicine and then comes back strong the next time out.

■ Take the Game 3 straight-up loser against the spread in Game 4. You look for the bounce back here, often getting a motivated effort from the team that lost Game 3 and a relatively flat effort from the team that won.

■ Take the prior game's loser from that point forward against the spread.

As a footnote, here's a suggestion: Don't blindly follow the zigzag theory. Use it as a guide, but remember some teams are more reliable than others, and some spots are better than others.

According to Kruger, in the second round of the playoffs since 2003, the team that won the Game 1, if at home, is 21-5 straight up and 18-8 against the spread in Game 2. The Lakers, Suns and Orlando Magic all followed that trend this week, contrary to the zigzag theory.

In Game 3 of a second-round series since 2003, if a team lost the first two and now is at home, the home teams are 13-5 straight up and 12-5-1 ATS. Using this stronger situational trend, San Antonio and Utah should be solid Game 3 plays. (Consider betting the money line if the spread seems too inflated.) If either the Spurs or Jazz lose, bet them again in Game 4 at home.

"You have to believe the Jazz will win at least one of the two games in Utah," Kruger said.

In the Boston-Cleveland series, the Cavaliers are 1-point road favorites in today's Game 3. According to the zigzag theory, the Celtics are the play today, and today's loser will be the play in Game 4.

The Lakers, with Kobe Bryant and their dominant front line, are far too talented to lose this series.

But true to Sloan's never-say-die attitude, expect the Jazz to fight for life and zigzag their way to at least one win in Salt Lake City.

Contact Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.