Graded stakes begin to winnow Derby field

We're 13 weeks out from the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, and there will be Derby preps Saturday at Aqueduct (Withers), Santa Anita (Robert B. Lewis) and Tampa Bay (Sam F. Davis).

All three are graded stakes, which is important. The Derby limits the field to 20 starters ranked by graded purse earnings. You don't want to be 21st on the list.

The big favorite in the Withers will be Alpha, who exits a workmanlike win in the Count Fleet at Aqueduct. It was the first time the Kiaran McLaughlin colt used Lasix, a legal diuretic, and it led to a career-best race. He is the most likely winner Saturday.

An interesting long shot is Swag Daddy, who has won three of four races since Rick Dutrow took over his training. Dutrow is winning at nearly 40 percent at this Aqueduct meet.

The Lewis is a deep and contentious eight-horse field. Trainer Bob Baffert has a powerful uncoupled entry in Liaison and Sky Kingdom. Liaison will be favored off wins in the Cash Call Futurity and Real Quiet, both at Hollywood Park. The colt is sired by Indian Charlie, which makes me think the Kentucky Derby distance of 1¼ miles will be beyond his scope.

I place more stock long term on Sky Kingdom, who was sired by Empire Maker, a Belmont Stakes winner. Sky Kingdom lost to Liaison in the Cash Call Futurity, but this colt shows all the signs of being a late developer and is suited to longer distances.

Two more colts that merit attention at Santa Anita are Rousing Sermon and Empire Way. Both were up close in a tight finish of the Cash Call.

Rousing Sermon is a California-bred who is likely outrunning his modest pedigree but shows a lot of heart. Empire Way is another Empire Maker, so his stamina bloodlines are impeccable. The switch has yet to go on for Empire Way, but he is a tempting price play.

The Sam F. Davis leading contenders appear to be State of Play, Prospective, Reveron and Ecabroni. State of Play will try dirt for the first time after winning the With Anticipation Stake on turf last year. He is a stablemate of last year's Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom. Prospective owns two stakes wins and has a big upside for trainer Mark Casse.

Reveron is exiting a win in the Gulfstream Park Derby and has won three straight races. Ecabroni is trained by Todd Pletcher, who has won four of the past six runnings of the Sam F. Davis. He has only broken his maiden, but with no graded stakes earnings must run an accelerated course from here on out.

■ 'LUCK' -- Despite airing only the first two episodes of "Luck," HBO has ordered a second season of the David Milch-produced horse racing drama. This is good news. The weekly audience for "Luck" figures to average more than 2 million viewers. That's a lot of newcomers eyeballing horse racing for the first time.

Richard Eng's horse racing column is published Friday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com. Follow him on Twitter: @richeng4propick.