Trends favor surging Dolphins

Three weeks into the season, the Miami Dolphins seemed to be a lost cause. But they found a quarterback for the future in Chad Henne and beat the odds to get back in the playoff hunt.

The Dolphins, 6-6 after starting 0-3, are underdogs of 21/2 to 3 points at Jacksonville today in a game with AFC postseason implications.

Despite the loss of injured running back Ronnie Brown, the Dolphins are rallying behind Henne and running back Ricky Williams. Henne passed for 335 yards in Miami's upset of New England a week ago.

"There is no question the absence of Brown has affected the Dolphins and their wildcat offense, but Williams has stepped it up, and Henne has shown signs of being a good quarterback in this league," said Vegas Insider handicapper Mark Franco, who is siding with the underdog Dolphins.

Henne has handled pressure well this season, but he might not see much from a Jaguars defense that has only 12 sacks.

Miami's defense will aim to contain Jacksonville running back Maurice Jones-Drew and try to force quarterback David Garrard to make plays. But Garrard's favorite target, wideout Mike Sims-Walker, is doubtful with a calf injury.

"The winner should be in good position for a wild-card spot in the AFC," Franco said.

Miami coach Tony Sparano is 6-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road after a win.

More alarming trends are working against Jacksonville, which has failed to cover nine straight times as a home favorite and is 1-12 ATS in its past 13 games when favored.

"The Jaguars have been an up-and-down team, looking good in some games and bad in others," Franco said. "Yes, they are 7-5 and looking at a wild-card spot, but when you study their body of work, they have not played as tough a schedule as the Dolphins."

Franco (Francosports.com) breaks down the rest of today's Week 14 schedule:

• Denver at Indianapolis (-7): The Broncos have reverted to their early-season form by winning and covering their past two games against the Giants and Kansas City. Kyle Orton has turned in solid quarterback play, and Denver has its running game going. The Broncos are 7-1 ATS in their past eight games following a win. The Colts are 4-9-1 ATS in their past 14 games as home favorites. I like Denver to cover with a chance to hand Indianapolis its first loss.

• Cincinnati at Minnesota (-61/2): I'm looking under the total (431/2) because the Vikings came back to Earth last week when they faced a tough defense in Arizona, and now they go against a formidable Cincinnati defense. The Bengals have shown they can run the ball, but it might be tougher this week versus the stout Vikings run defense. We'll see a lot of Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson after he got just 13 carries last week. The Vikings can clinch the NFC North with a victory. It's worth noting the Bengals are 6-0 ATS as underdogs this year.

• New York Jets (-31/2) at Tampa Bay: The Jets still are in the hunt for a playoff spot if they can win out. I can see the Jets running for major yards against this poor Buccaneers defense, and quarterback Kellen Clemens starts for the injured Mark Sanchez. Bucs rookie quarterback Josh Freeman has shown a little promise. I lean to the Jets.

• Buffalo (-2) at Kansas City: This is a lackluster game, to say the least, with the Bills not expected to be motivated here on the road. The Chiefs are not a good bet at home, 6-15 ATS in their past 21. Both teams have been held to 17 points or fewer in eight of their 12 games this season. I don't see much offense, so the under (371/2) is the play.

• Green Bay (-31/2) at Chicago: The Bears have been burning their backers, covering once in their past eight games. It's clear to me that Chicago is not a playoff-caliber team. Jay Cutler is showing he is an average quarterback, and the Bears defense has big holes to fill. The Packers are off their Monday night win and looking to close in on a wild-card spot in the NFC. This is not a strong play, but I have to back the Packers.

• New Orleans (-10) at Atlanta: A rash of injuries for the Falcons has all but finished their hopes of returning to the playoffs. Quarterback Matt Ryan again missed practice this past week because of a toe injury, making it unlikely he'll be able to play, along with running back Michael Turner. We witnessed the Saints get a fortunate win and not cover the 10-point spread at Washington, but this week they cover the 10 and stay unbeaten.

• Detroit at Baltimore (-131/2): The Lions (2-10) are 0-6 away from Ford Field and have covered just three games this season. This is a must-win game for the Ravens, and I expect them to put it all together. Baltimore is 4-2 at home and 9-5 ATS the past two years at home. Detroit is near the bottom of the league in total offense and total defense. The Lions are not a solid play as big underdogs, either, going 2-6 ATS as a 'dog of 10 or more points. I'm laying the big number with Baltimore.

• Carolina at New England (-13): The Patriots are off two road losses and have shown holes on defense, but a visit by the Panthers should get New England back on track. Carolina has been a mess and unable get its offense going. Tom Brady and the Patriots crushed three nondivisional opponents at home by an average score of 37-10. Look for a similar beatdown here.

• Seattle at Houston (-7): The Seahawks are downright bad on the road at 1-5 straight up and ATS. The Texans' chances of making a playoff run are slim after losing last week, but I think they will have a big edge in total yardage here. The Texans will go all out and get a needed home victory for coach Gary Kubiak.

• St. Louis at Tennessee (-13): The Rams are so one-dimensional on offense that opposing defenses can get away with stacking the box to slow running back Steven Jackson. The Titans' hot streak came to an end with their loss at Indianapolis, but look for them to get back on track with a big day from running back Chris Johnson.

• Washington (-1) at Oakland: Raiders quarterback Bruce Gradkowski has two game-winning drives in the final two minutes in the past three weeks. Winning on the road in Pittsburgh was big, but look for the Raiders to revert to their normal level of play here against a tough Washington defense. The Redskins have hung in games in the past month and should have upset the Saints. It would be the Redskins or pass.

• San Diego at Dallas (-3): This should be a close game that could come down to a field goal. The Chargers and quarterback Philip Rivers have won 15 straight games in December, and Cowboys counterpart Tony Romo is 2-6 in his past eight December starts. San Diego has led by at least seven points in every game but one during its seven-game win streak. I see big plays with both offenses playing at a high level, so look over the total (481/2).

• Philadelphia at New York Giants (Pick): The Giants are back in the hunt after beating the Cowboys and could gain control of the NFC East with a win. The Giants' glaring weakness has been their play on defense. The Eagles ripped the Giants 40-17 in early November, so I look for New York to be as motivated here as in any game this season. Go with the Giants.

Compiled by Las Vegas Review-Journal sports writer Matt Youmans.