UFC 162 matchups: Weidman has fighting chance to end Silva’s reign

UFC 162 MATCHUPS

A breakdown of the fights on the main card of UFC 162 today at the MGM Grand Garden:

Anderson Silva (champion, 33-4) vs. Chris Weidman (9-0)

■ CLASS: For middleweight title

■ LINE: Silva minus-230

■ STORYLINE: It has been a long time since announcer Bruce Buffer uttered the words, “Winner and new UFC middleweight champion of the world. ...” In fact, it has been since October 2006, when Silva won the belt from Rich Franklin. Buffer may want to practice the phrase in front of the mirror a few times today. There’s a reason so many fighters are picking Weidman to pull the upset and end the greatest title reign in UFC history. Weidman’s strengths match up perfectly with whatever weaknesses Silva may have. He’s an outstanding wrestler who possesses among the best submission skills in the division. This will look a great deal like Silva’s first fight against Chael Sonnen, only Weidman won’t let the opportunity slip through his fingers. He will stay within himself and find a way to finish the fight, setting up a rematch later this year.

■ PICK: Weidman by third-round submission

Frankie Edgar (14-4-1) vs. Charles Oliveira (16-3)

■ CLASS: Featherweight

■ LINE: Edgar minus-550

■ STORYLINE: A title has been on the line the previous seven times Edgar has stepped into the octagon. The former lightweight champion dropped down to 145 pounds and was narrowly defeated by champion Jose Aldo in his featherweight debut in February. Edgar will remain at 145 and try to work his way back to a title shot. It’s possible a lack of motivation could be there for Edgar in his first nontitle fight in more than three years. He is saying all the right things about being excited to work his way back into contention. If he is taken at his word and is fully invested in the fight, he probably has too much experience, technical striking and wrestling ability for Oliveira. The Brazilian has some edges of his own, however. He has an explosive submission game and a 4-inch height advantage. There is a great deal of value betting on Oliveira, but Edgar probably outlasts him for three rounds with takedowns and boxing.

■ PICK: Edgar by decision

Tim Kennedy (15-4) vs. Roger Gracie (6-1)

■ CLASS: Middleweight

■ LINE: Kennedy minus-150

■ STORYLINE: Fans of solid striking probably should avoid watching this matchup of former Strikeforce fighters making their UFC debuts. Gracie is a world champion jiujitsu competitor with limited stand-up experience. Kennedy is more well-rounded, though he can get sloppy in his punching at times. The former Green Beret would ordinarily like to grind out a win with his wrestling. That won’t be an ideal situation in this matchup with Gracie’s brilliance on the mat. Gracie has won five fights by submission in his brief mixed martial arts career and would love to start his UFC career by adding to that total. Gracie is insanely tall for the 185-pound division at 6 feet 4 inches. He should be able to keep Kennedy at bay with his reach, then find a way to get the fight to the ground and ultimately take care of business.

■ PICK: Gracie by second-round submission

Tim Boetsch (16-5) vs. Mark Munoz (12-3)

■ CLASS: Middleweight

■ LINE: Munoz minus-130

■ STORYLINE: The story of Munoz has been well-documented. He was knocked out by Chris Weidman about a year ago, and the crushing loss sent the former NCAA wrestling champion into a spiral that left him depressed and almost 80 pounds over his fighting weight. He’s finally ready to get back into the cage and looked just fine at Friday’s weigh-ins. He seems to be rejuvenated and ready to resume his march toward the top of the weight class after Weidman’s vicious elbow halted Munoz’s four-fight winning streak. Boetsch suffered a setback of his own his last time inside the cage. He also had won four in a row before a crushing knockout loss to Constantinos Philippou in December knocked him out of the title discussion. Boetsch is a solid wrestler, but Munoz is outstanding. Part of Munoz’s rejuvenation should include a renewed dedication to that part of his game. He may have fallen too much in love with his power punching in recent fights. As long as he can avoid Boetsch’s power, Munoz should find his way back into the win column.

■ PICK: Munoz by decision

Dennis Siver (21-8) vs. Cub Swanson (19-5)

■ CLASS: Featherweight

■ LINE: Swanson minus-230

■ STORYLINE: Swanson has been on an absolute tear. His four straight wins include three by knockout and have coincided with his increased maturity outside the cage. He was hoping to be fighting for a title but was passed over in the loaded featherweight division. A win over Siver, a tough German kickboxer, would go a long way toward earning that opportunity. This matchup is all about power. Swanson’s speed helps him generate his, while Siver’s comes more from his strength. Watch for Siver’s dizzying array of spinning attacks to try to keep Swanson off-balance. It shouldn’t faze him, though. Swanson has just been too good in recent fights. There probably won’t be much time spent on the ground, and either is capable of ending things quickly. It’s just Swanson’s time right now.

■ PICK: Swanson by first-round knockout

ADAM HILL/LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL