Handicapper sees tough times ahead for Rebels

UNLV’s basketball season is on a slide that might not end.

The Rebels (10-15, 3-9 Mountain West) take a five-game skid into Saturday’s 3 p.m. game against San Jose State (12-10, 5-6) at the Thomas & Mack Center.

Though the betting line opened UNLV favored by four points (it later dropped to 2½), the Rebels figure to be underdogs in their final five regular-season games. UNLV appears headed toward its first losing season since going 10-16 in 1995-96 in coach Bill Bayno’s first year.

“I am wondering if they’re going to win a game the rest of the way,” Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall said. “I just think they’re out of gas right now. (Coach Marvin Menzies has) had to patch this lineup together. They’re trying hard. It’s not that they’ve quit. I think these last two games have been the real alarms.”

UNLV lost to Colorado State 69-49 and at UNR 104-77.

After San Jose State, this is how Marshall sees the betting lines playing out:

Feb. 19, at San Diego State (13-10, 5-6). Marshall’s projection: Aztecs 13- to 15-point favorites. San Diego State has stumbled through an injury riddled season but is still talented.

Feb. 22, at Air Force (10-14, 3-8). Marshall’s projection: Falcons 5- to 6-point favorites. UNLV has lost its past two trips to Air Force, and the Falcons with their numerous back-door cuts tend to be a tough opponent.

Feb. 25, vs. UNR (19-5, 8-3). Marshall’s projection: Wolf Pack 9- to 10-point favorites. UNR is the league’s most talented team and win in so many ways, as it did in beating UNLV. “Reno could’ve won that game by 40,” Marshall said.

March 1, vs. Utah State (10-13, 4-8). Marshall’s projection: Aggies 1- to 2-point favorites. After San Jose State, this is UNLV’s best chance to win.

March 4, at Fresno State (14-10, 6-6). Marshall’s projection: Bulldogs 11- to 12-point favorites. Fresno State got hot late last season, riding the roll all the way to the conference tournament championship.

Setting betting lines is tricky for games involving the Rebels, who have failed to cover the past four spreads and six of seven.

“They’re not coming close to covering some of these recent games,” Marshall said. “You see that more the last month of the season with some of the bad teams or short-handed teams. I would put the Rebels there. They’re not horrific, but they’re proceeding with a limited arsenal, and those things tend to become more exaggerated, the flaws, in the last month. That’s what I worry about with them.

“The real danger is there may be one or two efforts that get you off the scent, and maybe they’ll come up with a good effort once or twice. The trajectory is still down, and they’ll fall back into that (negative) pattern.”

Contact Mark Anderson at manderson@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2914. Follow @markanderson65 on Twitter.