Analyst says Reid still a likely goner

Swimming against a tide of conventional wisdom, political analyst Stuart Rothenberg writes this morning he still believes Sen. Harry Reid could be a goner even after Republicans nominated someone who seems to be their most risky candidate.

Reid "is in a very competitive contest and .... he is more likely than not to lose his bid for a fifth term," Rothenberg writes in Roll Call.

While Reid has the resources -- and now a target in super-conservative Sharron Angle -- "I don't believe that last week's primary fundamentally changes the Nevada Senate race," he said.

"It was clear even before the Senate primary rolled around that Silver State Republicans wouldn’t be nominating a tested, charismatic, politically safe candidate against Reid."

Rothenberg cited some history to argue that Angle would not be the first "flawed hopeful" to win a Senate race in Nevada. In 1982, Republican Chic Hecht, who was hardly an intimidating politician, upset powerful Senate committee chairman Howard Cannon.

Plus, Reid continues to run poorly in public opinion polls, he said.

"Given all of these considerations, Angle’s primary victory doesn’t dramatically alter Reid’s prospects for the fall," Rothenberg writes.

"It will be difficult for Reid to make the election about Angle, whose demeanor doesn’t seem scary to voters, than about Obama, the unpopular Congress, the economy and the Democratic agenda. And that’s why Harry Reid is still more likely than not to lose."