Heller ‘advantage’ challenged by Dems
With Republican Rep. Dean Heller widely presumed to be in line for appointment to the U.S. Senate from Nevada, Democrats are pushing back on the conventional wisdom that it would provide him a leg up to win the seat outright in next year's election.
If Heller is chosen by Gov. Brian Sandoval to replace departing Sen. John Ensign, the idea is that the appointee would enjoy the perks of incumbency, such as Senate prestige, the potential for broader exposure, and greater access to potential donors.
Not so fast, Democratic pollster Mark Mellman writes this morning in The Hill.
"Talk about the 'incumbent advantage' Rep. Heller will gain by virtue of this appointment ignores the historical record, which makes clear that appointed incumbents gain no advantage," writes Mellman, who polls for Rep. Shelley Berkley, the Democrats' favored candidate in the Senate race, and also Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev.
"Since popular election of senators began in 1913, 118 appointed senators sought election and just 62 -- or 52.5 percent -- won their seats," Mellman writes.
"An appointed senator has about the same odds of winning a coin flip as (s)he does of keeping his or her seat: about the same odds as an otherwise evenly matched race for an open seat," he writes.
