Nate Silver’s team predicts legalization of same-sex marriage
After 2-1/2 hours of arguments, The Supreme Court appeared sharply divided along ideological lines on whether the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage, but the “swing vote,” Justice Anthony Kennedy, appeared in favor of legalizing gay marriage nationwide.
Early on, Kennedy seemed conflicted in his favor. “This definition [of marriage between opposite-sex couples] has been with us for millennia, and I think it’s very difficult for this court to say we know better,” Kennedy said.
Kennedy has written a series of gay rights opinions, according to CNN.
Nate Silver’s team, using two algorithms, predict a reversal of the two main questions — whether states can ban same-sex marriage, and if so, whether states must recognize a lawful same-sex marriage that was performed in another state — after they’ve concluded that Kennedy will vote in favor of gay marriage.
They say Kennedy is viewed as having a 75-percent chance of voting in reversal of the lower courts. Kennedy was also pivotal in the striking down of the Defense of Marriage Act in 2013.
The algorithm foresees a 7-2 reversal on both questions, which would be a triumph for same-sex proponents.
The decision is focusing mainly on gay marriage bans in Kentucky, Ohio, Tennessee and Michigan — four of 13 states that currently ban it. Since 2004, 37 states and Washington, D. C. have allowed same-sex marriages.
Contact Kristen DeSilva at 702-477-3895 or kdesilva@reviewjournal.com. Find her on Twitter: @kristendesilva
The Supreme Court appeared sharply divided Tuesday along ideological lines on whether the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage, but the "swing vote," Justice Anthony Kennedy, appeared in favor of legalizing gay marriage nationwide.
