Romney could shake up 2016 Republican presidential race

Mitt Romney has shaken up the 2016 presidential race even before it has officially started.

A Republican insider who has spoken to Romney fundraisers and advisers said he’s 99 percent sure the two-time White House hopeful will make a third run, a surprising development that sent tremors through the political world last week.

“They are talking as if it was a done deal,” said the insider, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “I only make it 99 percent because something could always happen before he announces.”

If the former Massachusetts governor and investment firm owner runs, his entry will affect the chances — in Nevada especially — of U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., and of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, an establishment candidate cut from the same cloth as Romney who dips from the same well of financial backers.

The presidential election is nearly two years out, but handicapping a long list of possible Republican contenders has begun. No one candidate is dominating the way former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton dominates the Democratic side, according to early polls.

Nevada is a key state to watch, given its swing-state status and near-perfect record of picking presidential winners. It also is an early-voting state, holding the first presidential caucus in the West after votes in Iowa and New Hampshire.

“Nevada will again be a prime actor both in terms of being an early caucus state and a general election swing state,” said Eric Herzik, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno. “The Republican field is shaping up and appears to be as crowded as it was in 2012. There are plenty of contenders and Romney adds a wrinkle, especially in Nevada where he has done well in the caucus, if he chooses to make another run.”

SANDOVAL FACTOR

GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval, a popular leader who easily won re-election in 2014, could help any contender with his endorsement. Nevada’s first Hispanic governor also is a vice presidential prospect. But Sandoval might move cautiously in offering support this time around, having backed Texas Gov. Rick Perry early in 2012.

Perry, another possible 2016 re-run, dropped out of the 2012 race. Sandoval endorsed Romney but only after it was clear he would win the GOP nomination.

Sandoval is close to Bush, sharing his ideas about education — including backing the much-debated common core system — so he might face a difficult choice if Perry, Bush and Romney all run.

Sandoval’s 2014 campaign manager, Jeremy Hughes, said there’s plenty of time for the White House race to settle.

“I still think we are a couple months away from seeing how the field takes shape and whether it’s 10 credible candidates or four or five,” Hughes said.

Romney and Paul appear to have an advantage over other likely contenders in Nevada, so far.

The libertarian-minded Paul, who campaigned Friday in Las Vegas and Saturday in Reno, has a ready set of supporters and a turnkey Silver State organization thanks to his father. Former U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, ran twice for president, finishing in the top tier in Nevada’s GOP presidential caucuses in 2008 and 2012.

Romney, too, has a ready base in Nevada: fellow members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, who helped him win half the vote in the past two Republican caucuses.

Ron Paul finished second to Romney in 2008, pulling nearly 14 percent of the vote to Romney’s 51 percent. In a rematch four years later Romney won 50 percent, Newt Gingrich came in second with 21 percent, and Paul finished third with 18 percent. It was a disappointing showing and evidence the congressman had a ceiling of support. His son appears to have broader backing and is seen as a stronger contender.

“Rand and Ron are two different people, and they are politically different,” said LisaMarie Johnson of Nye County, who worked on the senior Paul’s two campaigns and plans to get more involved in organizing for his son. “I think Rand appeals to a much broader base of Republicans. It really is a different ballgame, completely.”

Johnson acknowledged that if voters in Nevada and elsewhere see little difference between the Pauls, the senator’s chances could be spoiled. Rand Paul said this past week he has no plans to campaign with his father, an acknowledgement that he must carve out his own identity to win.

“If people continue to attach him to Ron and compare him to Ron, that could play against him,” Johnson said. “As long as people keep bringing up Ron, it’s a real problem. … Rand is a little more savvy about the campaign than his dad, who was pigeon-holed and became this obscure figure that no one understands.”

ROMNEY A SPOILER?

David Damore, a University of Nevada, Las Vegas political science professor, said if Romney does run it could make the Nevada GOP presidential caucus less attractive for other candidates.

“If he runs, two things happen,” Damore said. “He wins (again) in Nevada, and no one else bothers to seriously campaign here so as not to validate the win.”

That happened in 2008 when Romney’s dominance prompted U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and most of the GOP field to instead focus on the competing South Carolina primary.

Damore said Bush would have high name recognition and “should capture the support of most of the establishment folks” if Romney doesn’t run, but he’s unsure how he would play among die-hard conservatives who are more likely to caucus.

Damore called New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie a straight-talking politician but “damaged goods.” The New Jersey economy is in trouble, including in Atlantic City, where casinos are closing. Christie also has endured a year of scorn after some of his advisers had traffic lanes on a commuter bridge closed to punish a mayor who didn’t endorse Christie’s 2013 gubernatorial campaign. Christie has denied any role in the closure, but Damore said if he doesn’t win New Hampshire, “his path forward is non-existent.”

U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., might find favor in Nevada, where he lived as an adolescent and where he has campaigned several times for fellow Republicans, including Romney in 2012. But Rubio would have a tough time raising money if Bush runs, and his star has fallen since he “disavowed his only policy accomplishment,” immigration, Damore said.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, a tea party favorite, is seen as a dark horse candidate. He also has survived three political races, including an attempted recall following his moves to jettison public employee unions.

“His anti-union bona fides make him appealing to folks like Adelson,” Damore said, referring to Sheldon Adelson, the Las Vegas Sands Corp. CEO who is a generous and influential Republican donor.

Herzik said Walker might suffer from a lack of funds and organization, particularly on the national level. Then there’s the personality factor.

“Scott Walker is the tea party darling, but I don’t know if he generates much of the raw personality appeal that Rand Paul offers,” Herzik said.

ROMNEY FATIGUE?

Herzik said there might be some “Romney fatigue,” so his prospects might not be as good as he thinks. Paul, however, has “a less strident mix of policies and personality,” which make him a strong contender, especially in Nevada.

“I think Rand Paul would poll better than his father, and this makes him a contender,” Herzik said. “There will be questions, though, about how much money he can raise, which is, in part, why he is already out on the campaign trail.”

Bush is likely to have one of the best organizations and fundraising operations among the GOP field. If Romney doesn’t run, he could become the establishment favorite, Herzik said. But voters might not want to put a third Bush in the White House.

“There could easily be major ‘Bush name fatigue’ among Republicans and especially among more libertarian-minded Nevada Republicans who don’t like the idea of ‘family dynasties,’ ” Herzik said.

Rubio will try to be the “conservative alternative” to Paul and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, if he gets into the race, Herzik said. But he agrees with Damore that money might become a factor and that Rubio’s “star has lost some of its luster.”

Paul was treated as a political rock star as he campaigned Friday in Las Vegas, chatting with diners at the Peppermill Restaurant where he attracted older conservatives as well as younger voters, including a 20-year-old woman with pink hair. Paul was surrounded by Nevadans who had worked on Ron Paul’s previous campaigns.

“Ron was a philosopher and a purist,” said Richard Bunce, who worked on Ron Paul’s Nevada campaigns. “Whereas Rand is more charismatic and pragmatic. He’s a lot more popular than his father.”

Contact Laura Myers at lmyers@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919. Find her on Twitter: @lmyerslvrj.