Status quo at the top for 2010 Mountain West football race

Utah is headed for the Pac-12. BYU may be taking a gigantic gamble as a football independent. Boise State, Fresno State and Nevada are bidding farewell to the WAC and joining the Mountain West.

No doubt about it, the MWC is going to have a dramatic new look come 2011. Plus, it could well be that the conference isn't yet done with an ambitious expansion that includes a conference title game and a probable automatic bid to the BCS Bowl party.

But that's all down the road. For one last campaign, it's still the good ol' Mountain West Conference and the pecking order we've all gotten used to should remain mostly the same.

Here's a rundown of each of the nine teams still competing in the MWC for the 2010 season. Look for each of the first five finishers to go bowling, although there appears to be a significant drop in quality after that.

1. TCU

The Horned Frogs are off yet another spectacular season, and they look like a cinch to rack up their seventh double-digit win ledger in the past nine years.

Head coach Gary Patterson's 4-2-5 defense is the envy of nearly every program in the country. They must replace two huge components from that unit as Daryl Washington and Jerry Hughes are now playing on Sundays. But seven starters are back, including at least four players with a great shot to be first team All-MWC.

The offense is loaded as usual, and senior QB Andy Dalton has evolved into one of the most versatile signal callers in the game.

TCU annually produces great special teams units, and this year's group is one of their strongest ever.

The Horned Frogs are likely to be favored in every game, and if they get past a November road date at Utah, they will be in another BCS bowl.

2. Utah

It's the MWC swan song for the Utes, and while this isn't Kyle Whittingham's best team, they're still a high caliber entry that will have a good chance at winning 10 games.

The Sept. 2 opener against Pittsburgh is a challenge, as is the home date with TCU and the Utes will visit Notre Dame in November.

I like this team's offense quite a bit. QB Jordan Wynn took over the starting reigns last October and performed brilliantly, especially for a true freshman. The running game will be outstanding with Eddie Wide off a breakout junior season and Matt Asiata back after missing most of last season with an injury. The receiving corps and the offensive line look solid, so there are few concerns about this team's offense.

There are some definite questions on defense, although I expect the front four to be stellar. But the back seven lacks experience and figures to be down a shade this year. Special teams will be fine.

The Utes look like a solid choice to finish second in the conference en route to trying for their 10th consecutive bowl win.

3. BYU

The Cougars have won 10 or more games in each of the last four seasons, but they may be hard pressed to reach that level of success this season.

The key will be the development of highly touted freshman QB Jake Heaps and head coach Bronco Mendenhall's ability to find a lead running back who can shoulder the load behind what should be a very strong offensive line.

I'm not sold on the Cougars defensively. I like the secondary and Jordan Pendleton is a very solid LB, but the defensive front looks shaky. The Cougars have a very difficult September slate, and they also have to visit both Utah and TCU.

BYU will still be going bowling in all likelihood, but I see them with at least three losses and perhaps as many as five.

4. Air Force

The Falcons have a legit chance to break into the MWC Big Three this season. There might not be a more opportunistic group than Air Force. Over the past four seasons, they're a phenomenal plus-53 net turnovers.

The Falcons were 8-5 last year, but it's important to note that four of their losses were very close, including a pair of overtime defeats.

Tim Jefferson is a superb option QB and the Falcons have a dynamic duo at RB with Jared Tew and Asher Clark. The big question is on the offensive line where all five starters have to be replaced, and that could leave this team vulnerable early, including their Week Two duel with BYU.

Air Force has put up quality defensive numbers in each of the last three years and that's not likely to change. The Falcons won't beat Oklahoma or TCU on the road. But they catch BYU, Navy and Utah at home and, if they can win a couple of those games, a 10 win season is not impossible.

5. San Diego State

The Aztecs have not been to a bowl game since 1998, but that unfortunate streak of mediocrity is about to end. SDSU returns 16 starters and should be improved at nearly every position.

The key concern is the running game, which has been simply awful the last two years. San Diego State was sitting at 4-4 last year and had a great shot at a bowl game, but they fell apart down the stretch. That's unlikely to happen again with all the experience and improved depth.

Head coach Brady Hoke and coordinators Al Borges and Rocky Long give the Aztecs a very high caliber brain trust. I can see this team being favored in as many as eight games this season, and I would be very surprised to see them win less than seven games.

6. Wyoming

The Cowboys had a storybook 2009 season, emerging from expected mediocrity to win six regular season games. They then capped off their campaign by kayoing Fresno State in a thrilling two overtime bowl game.

The bad news is that this team was extremely fortunate. Five of their wins came by seven or fewer points, and it's very difficult for that magic to be produced in back to back seasons. On the other hand, the Cowboys return 15 starters including exciting sophomore QB Austyn Carta-Samuels.

The defensive secondary looks good, but the front seven may be shaky.

Wyoming probably caught a few 2009 opponents by surprise, which won't happen again. Even though they're possibly better on paper than last season, I expect at least couple of those narrow '09 victories to turn into losses, so I'm calling for Wyoming to have trouble getting back to .500 this year.

7. UNLV

The Rebels were a huge disappointment in 2009. Despite lofty preseason expectations and a remarkably healthy season, UNLV just never put it together and their 5-7 finish had to be considered a flop. This year, no one is predicting big things and the Rebels could be a dangerous under the radar entry. The key is finding a way to contain opposing running games, a severe shortcoming during the Mike Sanford regime.

Senior QB Omar Clayton will have to adapt to a new scheme, but he should be up to the task if he can avoid the consistent nagging injuries that clearly hampered him last year.

Head coach Bobby Hauck was a huge winner at Montana and while I would not expect a winning season this time around, UNLV fans should be excited about the future.

8. Colorado State

The Rams were a surprise bowl winner in 2008 and started the '09 campaign off with three straight wins. But it was all downhill from there as Colorado State lost its last nine games, and there are lots of problems heading into the new season. The Rams have already lost several players off the two-deep depth chart and that's bad trouble for a team that was short on experience to begin with.

Pete Thomas is a big time QB recruit, but this game isn't easy for true freshmen. Fortunately, the running backs are very talented, but there's too much inexperience among the receivers and the offensive line.

The defensive line was supposed to be a major strength, but both projected starting DE's are gone for the season. The back seven will be the strength of this team.

I think CSU is capable of a better finish than this, but all the preseason personnel losses and the questions on offense may be too much to overcome.

9. New Mexico

The Lobos managed to avoid the dreaded winless season when they got the mild late-season upset against Colorado State. Heading into the new season, I don't see New Mexico bettering that 1-11 slate.

The Lobos are somewhat improved, especially on defense. They have some good running backs and despite losing two of their top receivers, that unit is better as well. But the offensive line looks shoddy and QB figures to be an issue again.

I'm also not sold on the coaching. Mike Locksley is still committed to running the spread offense and I don't think he's got the right personnel to make it work. The Lobos also have a very difficult schedule and they will almost certainly be underdogs in nearly every game.

Read Dave Cokin's blog complete with his Mountain West Conference picks each week on RebelNation.Net.