The last day arrives

CARSON CITY

By the time you read this, everything will have changed.

Several times.

We’ve reached the stage where ennui floods the hallways of the Legislative Building, meetings take place behind closed doors, lobbyists stalk lawmakers searching for votes, and everybody operates with one eye on the clock as the minutes tick away until the midnight deadline on Monday.

Politicians and pundits look for signs in the comments of lawmakers in committees (“He voted to move the tax bill to the floor; that may be a sign he’ll vote for it on final passage!”) or in votes on unrelated measures (Does her vote for a fee signal the possibility of her “aye” vote on taxes?).

The reality is, nobody really knows for sure how the 2015 Nevada Legislature will end Monday, and probably won’t, until the big video screen in the Assembly chamber lights up in red or green.

There are a few things we do know: A small cadre of lawmakers, numbering between nine and 12, are likely no votes against any and every tax plan, including the Nevada Revenue Plan, with its increase in payroll taxes, business license fees and creation of a new commerce tax. On Friday, Assemblywoman Michele Fiore, R-Las Vegas, a leader of this anti-tax caucus, put out a news release noting that she and her colleagues voted against certain budgets — including those to provide meals to low-income students — because they cost too much.

“Of course, some of the new spending items may be better for the children in our schools than existing spending, but, sadly, the Assembly Ways and Means Committee and the Senate Finance Committee did not couple these new recommendations with reduced spending on less effective programs,” Fiore wrote for her colleagues. “Instead, they actively seek a budget that cannot be funded with existing revenues and would require the legislature to dig deeper into the pockets of our fellow Nevadans. We are all saddened by this process and by the committee’s refusal to consult with the entire Republican caucus about spending decisions throughout the session.”

Yes, because close consultations would have produced a low-cost compromise that would have fully funded schools the way the budget dictates? Of course not.

The statement carried the names of Assembly members Brent Jones, R-Las Vegas; Dr. Robin Titus, R-Wellington; Ira Hansen, R-Sparks; Vicki Dooling, R-Henderson; Shelly Shelton, R-Las Vegas; John Moore, R-Las Vegas; Jill Dickman, R-Sparks; and Jim Wheeler, R-Minden.

That’s nine names, nine hard votes against taxes. Other counts have identified up to 12 anti-tax votes. But that’s not enough. In order to defeat a tax increase (which requires a two-thirds supermajority), 15 nay votes would be required. That means the margin for error in favor of the tax plan isn’t large, but it is well within the realm of possibility.

We also know Gov. Brian Sandoval appears to be standing by his principles. Andy Matthews, the president of the right-wing Nevada Policy Research Institute, lamented last week that Sandoval won’t at least shed the commerce tax from his proposal.

“That leaves two unappetizing scenarios: Either lawmakers capitulate to Sandoval or there’s going to be a special session,” Matthews wrote. “If there is a special session — and right now that’s the best-case scenario for taxpayers — it will happen because Sandoval continuously refused to compromise.”

And by compromise, of course, he means surrender. NPRI has campaigned against nearly all taxes and has opined that the state could get by on a tax-hike-free $6.4 billion general fund budget, rather than the $7.3 billion spending plan advanced by the governor.

Ultimately, however, none of the “alternative” budgets advanced during this session will have made even the slightest difference. This debate has always been about a fundamental change to the way Nevada does business. And even if the vote counts change a hundred times, even if there’s a special session, that won’t change.

On to tomorrow …

Steve Sebelius is a Las Vegas Review-Journal political columnist. He’s in Carson City to cover the final days of the 2015 Nevada Legislature. Follow him on Twitter (@SteveSebelius) for up-to-the-minute updates. Reach him at 702-387-5276 or ssebelius@reviewjournal.com.