Sunday, March 21, 2004
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

President leads Kerry by wide margin in poll

Large number of registered Republicans give Bush early advantage in Nevada

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If the presidential election were held today, President Bush could count on Nevada's five electoral votes, according to a poll of likely voters.

A telephone poll of 625 voters by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., for the Review-Journal, showed Bush leading Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry by 11 points, 49 to 38 percent.

Independent candidate Ralph Nader has 4 percent support, and 9 percent of those surveyed are undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

"I think Nevada leans toward Bush, and the primary reason is the registration in Nevada," said Brad Coker, managing director of the Washington, D.C., polling firm. "There are still more registered Republicans than Democrats. He's really held the Republican base together."

David Damore, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, was surprised Kerry already faces a double-digit deficit. "He's got his work cut out for him here," said Damore, a registered Democrat.

Kerry spokeswoman Laura Capps said he is in a "strong position" despite the results.

"I think Nevadans understand better than anyone why Americans can't trust President Bush," Capps said, referring to Bush's decision to recommend Yucca Mountain as the nation's nuclear waste repository. "After the election, he caved to the special interests and went back on his promise to Nevadans."

Coker said one reason Bush might have an 11-point lead in Nevada is that he is advertising heavily in the state, and "I think you're seeing some impact from his commercials."

The poll was conducted Monday through Wednesday, a full two weeks after Bush's ads began running.

"We will continue to educate Nevadans about the clear contrast between President Bush's principled vision and Senator Kerry's pattern of shifting positions in an effort to garner votes," Bush-Cheney spokeswoman Tracey Schmitt said.

Schmitt said while the campaign is optimistic about Nevada, considered a battleground state, a close race is anticipated. "We will not be taking any votes for granted."

Nevada Democratic Party Chairwoman Adriana Martinez said recent turnouts at Democratic precinct caucuses and county conventions show Democrats are energized to vote for Kerry.

"We are going to be ready, and we are going to work hard for John Kerry," she said. "Too much is at stake."

Republicans hold an edge in registration, 355,116 to 343,679 statewide. And Gov. Kenny Guinn, co-chairman of Bush's re-election campaign in Nevada, said the president also has the benefit of a good economy, given the 69,600 jobs created in the Silver State since Bush took office.

"We've bounced back strongly since 9-11," Guinn said.

A July 2003 Mason-Dixon poll found 51 percent of the 625 voters surveyed said they would vote for Bush, while 21 percent said they would vote for the Democratic nominee.

The main distinction between the 2003 poll and the one conducted last week had to do with Bush's popularity. Forty-eight percent of those surveyed last week had a favorable opinion of Bush, compared to 37 percent unfavorable. The July 2003 survey showed higher support for Bush, with 57 percent favorable compared to 23 percent unfavorable.

Voters' opinions of John Kerry are split between favorable and unfavorable, 35 percent and 36 percent respectively. Another 27 percent have a neutral opinion of him.

Nader has the highest unfavorable number at 46 percent, compared with just 19 percent in favor.

Coker said he did not think Nader would be a major factor in this year's election.

More important for Bush will be the support of women voters, he said. Female voters surveyed supported Bush and Kerry evenly, 45 and 42 percent respectively.

But Coker said Democrats traditionally make deeper inroads with Republican women.

Last week, registered Republican women in Nevada received a campaign mailer from Bush with a photograph of the president and first lady Laura Bush.

Bush also polled strongly among Republicans, garnering 84 percent support; 13 percent of Democrats and 45 percent of independent voters supported him.

"He's holding the Republican vote together," Coker said. "He's holding it together as best as any Republican has since Ronald Reagan; and as long as he carries more Democrats than he's losing Republicans, I don't know that Kerry can catch him."