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Aug. 06, 2006
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal


GUBERNATORIAL CAMPAIGNS: Races tighten down stretch

Months of bruising fight leave Democrats where they started

By MOLLY BALL
REVIEW-JOURNAL




Dina Titus



Jim Gibson
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For Jim Gibson and Dina Titus, it has been a bruising fight of a campaign.

The two Democratic gubernatorial candidates have battled over everything from growth to each other's campaign contributions. But they find themselves in much the same position as they started.

Gibson, the mayor of Henderson, is seen as moderate and somewhat bland, with uncertain prospects in the primary but perhaps a better chance in the general election. Titus, the minority leader in the state Senate, is seen as a liberal firebrand and slight favorite in the primary, but a divisive figure who might be less electable in November.

Chuck Muth, a Carson City conservative activist, said Gibson's advantage has been his money, while Titus' has been her liberal bona fides.

"Dina Titus has done an excellent job getting the support of the grass roots," Muth said. "She has a 16-year record as a progressive that Democratic primary voters recognize. But Jim Gibson was able to overcome her early advantages with money to some extent."

Gibson is thought to have more fundraising power than Titus. The last time the two reported campaign contributions, in January, Gibson had raised $1.8 million compared to Titus' $1.1 million.

But Titus' presumed edge in the primary is not absolute, Muth said, for a number of reasons. "If Democratic voters say to themselves, 'We want to win,' then Jim Gibson has the advantage," he said. "He clearly has more general election appeal than Dina Titus."

Observers of the race say this one will go down to the wire, and most consider it too close to call.

"It will all depend on who ultimately comes out to the polls," said David Damore, a political scientist at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. If Jim Gibson can get people out who are not her (Titus') base of environmentalists, social liberals and unions, he has a chance."

THE ISSUES

If Democratic voters try to choose between Gibson and Titus based on their views, it may be a difficult choice.

At a recent debate on the cable news show "Face to Face," Gibson and Titus found much to agree on. Both said they support creating universal full-day kindergarten in the public schools, raising teacher salaries, paying teachers more for better performance, shoring up the finances of the Millennium Scholarship and putting state money into embryonic stem-cell research.

Titus has aggressively sought to portray Gibson as opposed to abortion being legal. One of her television commercials accuses Gibson of "promising his Republican friends he would work to outlaw abortion."

Gibson accuses Titus of mischaracterizing his position on abortion, but there's no question he is not as unequivocally pro-choice as she is. The difference is summed up in a survey of the two that appears in a recently published newsletter of the Nevada chapter of the National Organization for Women: On the question "Do you believe a woman should be able to make her own choice to have an abortion without interference from the government?" Titus checked "yes," while Gibson checked "N/A."

The answers were the same -- "yes" for her, "N/A" for him -- on the questions of "Do you believe women and teen girls have a right to privacy with regards to our reproductive choices?" and "Would you veto or vote against parental consent legislation?"

Gibson has said abortion should not be an issue in the gubernatorial race because the legality of abortion was cemented in Nevada with a ballot measure more than a decade ago. As symbolized by his "N/A" answers, he'd rather not talk about it.

Gibson -- who has been an official in the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, which opposes abortion in most circumstances -- has said he believes abortion must always be available in cases of pregnancy caused by rape or incest, or when the pregnancy endangers the woman's life.

Gibson has taken issue with another of Titus' positions, the "ring around the valley" she proposed in 1997. He says it would have driven up housing prices even more than they rose in recent years, and would have stifled economic development.

Titus denied that would have been the effect of the measure, which did not pass the Legislature. But the attempt to limit growth fits with an impression of Titus as a university professor who's isolated from the business world and doesn't sympathize with its needs, Muth said.

"She's one of those liberals who thinks there's something wrong with making money," he said.

THE CAMPAIGN SO FAR

Money, in fact, has been the focus of Titus' criticisms of Gibson. In a series of ads, she has pilloried the $500,000 his law firm was paid by Nevada Power; the $150,000 in contributions he received from developer Tony Marnell, whose project in Henderson Gibson supported; and the $500,000 she alleges he was paid by the underperforming Las Vegas Monorail.

The accusation that Gibson is tainted by his financial dealings has been a staple of the campaign since late March, when Titus unveiled her accusations of "pay to play." She pointed to more than a dozen instances in which Gibson took contributions from corporations shortly before or after the groups had businesses before the Henderson City Council -- land sales, zoning changes, development approvals and appointments.

Gibson said in each case, he did what was best for Henderson. He fired back with a variety of charges against Titus.

In April, he accused her of "dollars to dance," saying she took contributions from interest groups that had positions on actions in the Legislature. But he could find only three such instances.

He also called on her to return $2,000 she took from Enron in 2000, before the company's spectacular collapse. His campaign produced a Star Wars parody cartoon depicting Titus going to the "dark side."

Last month, Gibson came out with a new accusation of financial misconduct and a new slogan. He accused her of "slush and duck" for allegedly "laundering" money for her gubernatorial campaign through a political action committee that was supposed to be helping Democratic candidates for the Legislature.

Gibson's television commercials have pointed out Titus' votes in favor of tax hikes, legislators' pensions and telemarketers to suggest that she's not a good public servant. He has also called attention to derogatory comments she has made about Northern Nevada.

Muth said Gibson clearly has had a hard time answering Titus' salvos. "He's done the best he could under the circumstances," he said. "But his main thrust has still got to be, 'I could win in November.'"

THE HORSE RACE

Who will win on Aug. 15 is seen as anybody's guess.

The polls have seesawed. Early on, Titus maintained an advantage of 10 percentage points or more in multiple surveys, which analysts chalked up to the perception that Titus was a "real Democrat," while Gibson was too conservative for Democratic voters. Gibson was also thought to be less known to voters statewide, having only held office in Henderson.

But, with the help of his larger war chest, Gibson unleashed a barrage of commercials in May, when no other gubernatorial candidate was on the air. The statewide ads introduced Gibson as a fan of parkland, concerned about education and a friend to the police.

Titus answered only with silence for weeks. Two polls taken at that time showed the ads might be having an effect: Gibson was ahead by about 10 percentage points in surveys by both SurveyUSA and Magellan Research. The Magellan poll was commissioned by the Gibson campaign.

However, Titus began airing ads in late June, and yet more polls, the most recent conducted by Washington, D.C.-based Peter Hart, put her back in the lead.

"If the polls are to be believed, she's going to be the nominee," Muth said. But he said not to count out Gibson, who has a strong campaign team and could still "pull a rabbit out of a hat."

Whoever is the winner, he or she will have little time to celebrate on Aug. 16, Damore said. Many have wondered whether, given the spate of attacks in both directions, the primary winner will be irreparably damaged and unable to compete in November.

But that's not the main problem for the Democratic nominee, Damore said. "The scars from the interparty fight should be minimal -- the Democrats will come together," he said. "The question will be whether they will have any money left or be able to raise any money."

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Democratic Gubernatorial Candidates on the Issues

Education

Jim Gibson
Full-day kindergarten, increased teacher salaries, more school-level autonomy.

Dina Titus
Fund class-sizer eduction and full-day kindergarten, shore up the Millennium Scholarship.

Performance pay for teachers

Jim Gibson
Yes, but based on schoolwide performance, not individual teachers.

Dina Titus
Yes, but not based on student test scores.

Abortion

Jim Gibson
Abortion must always be available in cases of rape, incest or where the woman's life is in danger. The issue is settled in Nevada, where a vote of the people made abortion legal.

Dina Titus
A woman's right to choose is absolute.

Growth

Jim Gibson
Local governments, such as Henderson, have done a good job balancing the need for economic development with the need for limits on growth. Titus' proposed "ring around the valley" would have led to bureaucratic interference and skyrocketing home prices. Dina Titus
Local governments have allowed too much unchecked development. The "ring around the valley" would have created more rational, regionally based development.

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