ORLANDO, Fla. -- For the next 20 years, some of the weightiest issues for home builders will be figuring out where baby boomers really want to move, when and if they sell their homes, and what type of housing will they desire, be it city-center high-rise condo, beach house, or something in a golf course development.
With more than 70 million boomers heading toward retirement -- the oldest of them turn 60 this year -- these questions were prominent at the National Association of Home Builders' annual conference, which wrapped up on Jan. 14.
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Though consumer survey research has shown for decades that homeowners in their 40s and 50s often have no detailed plans to downsize or sell their houses, a new statistical study unveiled at the convention suggests that boomers might have different ideas.
In the study, more than 50 percent of all homeowners ages 45 to 54, and nearly 60 percent of homeowners aged 55 to 64, rated themselves either "likely" or "very likely" to buy a vacation, investment or new primary home sometime in the coming 60 months.
In addition, 49 percent of owners 55 years and older say they are likely to move into some form of "active adult" community. One out of five households said they are thinking about moving to an age-restricted adult community -- a figure more than double what a similar study found just five years ago.
The new research, conducted by ProMatura Group, an Oxford, Miss.-based consulting group, comprised a statistical sample of 2,309 boomers polled last Nov. 28-30. The study was limited to households with Internet connections and has a 1.8 percent margin of error.
Margaret Wylde, president and CEO of ProMatura, told the builders that boomers' attitudes on housing and location may significantly differ from those of their immediate predecessors. They are willing to consider moving to planned communities that emphasize "active lifestyles" -- fitness and social interactions.
Their desires for physical pursuits, however, aren't necessarily what real estate developers may assume. For example, though golf-related second home and "active adult" communities were all the rage in recent decades, boomers may not follow suit. Just 1.7 percent of homeowners 55 years and older said they were likely to purchase a home on a golf course and just 5 percent said they wanted a view of a golf course.
Contrast that with 25.5 percent of the same group that said they want to live on or have a view of a fresh waterfront of some sort, such as a lake or river. Boomers also may not be as eager as some developers assume to buy property on or close to salt water, perhaps in part because of concerns about potential future storm damage. Just 1.7 percent consider themselves highly likely to buy oceanfront property, and just 6.8 percent want to buy property with a salt waterfront view.
By contrast, the biggest draw among boomers regarding views is nongolf-related "green space," such as the parks or greenbelts built into many newer communities.
Active boomers put a high emphasis on fitness centers. Nearly one-quarter of boomer homeowners 55 and older want to live within walking distance of a fitness center, a priority that is more than double the level of interest of homeowners in general.
Boomers are emphatic about bedrooms -- the magic number is three -- but don't seem to mind if their total living space is smaller than their longtime homes. Sixty-two percent say they'd be happy with less square footage, as long as "everything is top quality" in the new place.
