Some people will bet on anything, while some of us take the back-seat ride to watch how the real risk-takers are going to come out.

At some point, the lines blur. Movie box office grosses have vaulted from the pages of Variety to a lucrative online betting business, as the Review-Journal's Carol Cling explored in a story in July. Entertainment journalists now probe for details of an industry that has become everybody's business, and consumer handicappers devour the news as if it were written by famed oddsmaker Wayne Allyn Root.

You can bet on the ratings for Katie Couric's first CBS newscast, and whether Harry Potter will die in the final novel. So far, I haven't seen that you can bet on whether "The Producers" will make it in Las Vegas. If you do, let me know, because it's the next logical step for the gossipy show community here.

But it wouldn't be an easy way to earn a living, as many can tell you the hard way. Didn't "Hairspray" seem like a solid proposition for Luxor? Campy, colorful and paced like a sprint car race. How could it lose?

But a recent New York Times piece on the state of Broadway's touring shows suggested its investors should have spent more time with the tout sheets.

The article explains that "Hairspray" was a hit on Broadway, but proved to be "a moderately successful road show" in three years of touring, and "never lived up to expectations," becoming a case study in the struggle "to find hits for the heartland."

And what is the Strip if not the heartland pulling in for a three-day drunk?

"Monty Python's Spamalot," on the other hand, is due to arrive at Wynn Las Vegas next February or March, about the same time as "The Producers" or soon after.

A press release recently touted that the "Spamalot" national tour grossed $1.3 million during a week in Toronto. See how it does in Pittsburgh on Sept. 12 if you want to gauge its appeal outside the Broadway-Chicago nexus.

Wynn Las Vegas hasn't announced how many weekly shows there will be in a 1,500-seat theater. "The Producers" will open with seven, and "Phantom -- The Las Vegas Spectacular" has 10.

I would have bet 10 was too many for a 1,815-seat theater when "Phantom" opened in June. So far I'm mostly right. The producers are standing by the 10 shows, but moving many from a 10 p.m. start to as early as 5 p.m.

Will the shows need name stars? "Spamalot" seems to be holding fast without them both on Broadway and on tour. But I hear the delays for "The Producers," now pushed from fall to February, are in some part because of the search for names above the title.

It's always a complex equation. Do any of the online gambling sites offer $5 parlay cards?

Mike Weatherford's entertainment column appears Thursdays and Sundays. Contact him at 383-0288 or e-mail him at mweatherford@reviewjournal.com.