Click image for enlargement. Graphic by Mike Johnson.

A slowdown in residential construction and related employment has kept the Las Vegas economy at a standstill over the past 12 months, a local economist said Friday.

The Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to signal neither expansion nor contraction, said Keith Schwer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research.

The index stood at 132.79 in February, down slightly from 132.98 in January and up from 132.23 in the same month a year ago.

As it did for most of 2006, the index has remained flat, Schwer said. Six of the 10 indicators were down from a year ago.

"The mix in the data shows no sign of a recession," he said, "though weakness is to be seen. It is highly likely that the index will continue along its recent track through 2007 because of weakness in residential housing."

The index is a six-month forecast from the month of the data, December, based on a net-weighted average of 10 series of indicators after adjustments for seasonal variation.

The accompanying chart includes several of the index's categories, along with data such as new residents and employment and housing numbers, updated for the most recent month for which figures are available.

Construction activity measured by the Center for Business and Economic Research moved downward by 0.15 percent. Schwer said such a small change may signal the beginning of a "firming up" stage in the residential construction market.

"Given the magnitude of the froth and imbalances in the Las Vegas housing market, we should not expect a turnaround overnight," he said. "Still, after all is said and done, we have seen adjustments for about a half-year. I think we are halfway there to seeing our way out of the woods."

The Las Vegas economy remains relatively healthy with strong job growth, John Restrepo of Restrepo Consulting Group said. The region had been leading the nation with 5 percent increase in employment, but that rate slowed to 3.8 percent in January.

"However, incomes and salaries have remained relatively flat for the last 10 years after adjusting for inflation," Restrepo said.

The Clark County Tourism Index, also compiled by the center, jumped 10 percent in December from the same month a year ago. Historically one of the weakest months for tourism in Las Vegas, December's strong showing offers another simple indicator of the strength of travel and tourism going into 2007, Schwer said.

"We have not hit a big land mine yet. Each month brings greater assurance that we will not going to have a recession," he said. "Still, there is some trimming ahead. All in all, the (Alan) Greenspan comments, along with Asia activity, spooked the markets, but we are holding OK.

"We still do not have a good handle on the new territory we find ourselves in with subprime loans and other exotic financial products and, as a result, investors will be less steady than otherwise."